Coinbase launches AI advisor as Shiller PE hits 42

Fed Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Forecast

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, while significantly raising its headline PCE inflation forecast for the year to 3.6% from 2.7%. Michael McKee reported the committee is evenly split on future moves, with nine members foreseeing at least one more rate increase this year.

This signals persistent inflationary pressure the Fed cannot ignore, even as the market pushes new highs. Practitioners should prepare for a longer period of higher rates than previously anticipated. > Watch: Fed dot plot shifts in next meeting

OpenAI's Soaring Revenue and Spending

Leaked financials show OpenAI's revenue grew over 250% to $13 billion last year, but its sales and marketing expenses surged 418% to $5.7 billion. Ed Elson noted these expenses represented 44% of total revenue, with a source indicating a $30 billion non-cash charge in the net loss.

OpenAI prioritizes market capture and growth at extreme cost, suggesting a "winner-take-all" mentality that defies traditional profitability metrics. This aggressive spending sets a high bar for competitors. > Watch: OpenAI's next funding round valuation

Coinbase's "Everything Exchange" Ambition

Coinbase is launching an SEC-registered AI investment advisor and tokenized equities, aiming to become an "everything exchange" for on-chain assets. CEO Brian Armstrong stated the goal is to bring all asset classes, including stocks and commodities, on-chain for trading from a single account.

This move represents a significant push to financialize traditional assets onto blockchain infrastructure, potentially expanding the addressable market for crypto exchanges while navigating complex regulatory landscapes. It bets on a future where all value is tokenized. > Watch: SEC response to tokenized equities

Nuclear Power's Resurgence

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission renewed operating licenses for 18 power reactors over the past 12 months, extending their operation for an additional 20 years. Honi reported this development coincides with a Department of Energy announcement that one of its 11 pilot project reactors achieved criticality.

Long-term energy security and clean power initiatives are gaining regulatory and operational traction, providing a stable, foundational energy source. This directly supports the increasing power demands of industries like AI. > Watch: Next DOE pilot reactor criticality date

Shiller PE Ratio Signals Overvaluation

The Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500 has reached a multiple of 42, its second-highest reading in history, signaling potential overvaluation in the market. Ed Elson highlighted this metric, which suggests equity prices are high relative to their inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade.

This indicates a market trading on future expectations and liquidity rather than historical earnings, posing a risk for long-term investors. A high Shiller PE often precedes periods of lower returns. > Watch: S&P 500 earnings growth vs. Shiller PE

Snowflake's Enterprise Penetration vs. Guidance

Snowflake now counts half of the addressable, non-China Global 2000 companies as customers, indicating significant penetration in the large enterprise market. CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy made this claim, which contrasts with the company's recent forward guidance that was 5 percentage points below analyst consensus.

Despite strong customer adoption, Snowflake's lowered guidance suggests a maturing market or increased competition impacting future growth rates. High penetration does not automatically translate to sustained rapid revenue expansion. > Watch: Snowflake's next quarter revenue growth

Trump Signs Interim Iran Deal

President Donald Trump has signed an interim deal with Iran intended to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Caroline Hepker and a statement from the President confirmed the agreement stipulates the United States will not invest any money in Iran.

This geopolitical de-escalation could stabilize a critical energy shipping lane and reduce regional tensions. The no-investment clause sets clear economic boundaries for US engagement. > Watch: Oil prices in Strait of Hormuz