Economic statecraft, including sanctions and export controls, has supplanted military power as the primary arena for great power competition in the 21st century.
China has strategically secured dominance over future economic choke points, particularly the entire clean energy supply chain and rare earth mineral refining, posing a significant long-term challenge to the U.S. and its allies.
The Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran was a profound foreign policy failure that yielded no gains while allowing Iran to become a threshold nuclear power.
The overuse of unilateral U.S. economic sanctions and destabilizing political actions are actively eroding global confidence in the U.S. dollar, putting its status as the world's primary reserve currency in a 'precarious position'.
Iran has demonstrated that a smaller power can successfully use asymmetric military tactics to control a vital geographic choke point, thereby achieving major strategic and economic concessions from global powers.
2005-2009
Fishman references this period as a time when the U.S. 'almost certainly' removed sanctions pressure on North Korea prematurely.
2014-2015
Cites this period as an example of effective sanctions, noting that the Russian economy contracted at a 10% annualized rate in the winter.
Trump Administration (2017-2021)
Fishman identifies this era as a turning point, marked by the 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran, the weaponization of semiconductor controls against Chinese firms like ZTE and Huawei, and actions that he believes began to undermine global confidence in the U.S. dollar.
2018
Points to this year as when Russia's central bank, following U.S. sanctions pressure, sold all of its U.S. dollar holdings and reallocated them to euros.
Biden Administration (2021-Present)
Observes that this administration expanded upon Trump-era policies by scaling up semiconductor export controls to cover the entire Chinese economy.
April 2026
In podcast appearances dated for April 2026, Fishman analyzes a hypothetical recent conflict where Iran has successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz, institutionalized passage fees, and secured major sanctions relief, including the ability to sell oil directly to the U.S.
▶The Era of Economic Warfare
Fishman's central thesis is that sanctions, export controls, and tariffs have become the primary instruments of great power competition. He analyzes how nations weaponize economic dependencies, from the US leveraging the dollar system to China controlling critical mineral supply chains.
For investors and analysts, this theme underscores the need to evaluate geopolitical risk not just in terms of military conflict, but as a constant threat to supply chains, market access, and financial systems.
▶Geopolitical Choke Points: From Geography to TechnologyApr 2026
Fishman frequently uses the concept of 'choke points' to explain geopolitical leverage. He extends this idea from traditional geographic points like the Strait of Hormuz to modern technological domains, such as semiconductors, rare earth minerals, and, most critically for the future, clean energy technology.
This framework suggests that future geopolitical power will be determined less by military might and more by control over the essential inputs of the 21st-century global economy, making supply chain resilience a national security imperative.
▶Iran's Asymmetric SuccessApr–Jul 2026
Fishman presents Iran's strategy in the Strait of Hormuz as a case study in successful asymmetric warfare. He details how Iran used low-cost drones and missiles to gain control over a vital global artery, forcing concessions and securing revenue streams that circumvented sanctions.
This analysis serves as a playbook for how smaller, sanctioned states can exploit the dependencies of larger powers, indicating that similar disruptive tactics could be deployed in other global choke points, both physical and digital.
▶The Precariousness of US Economic Hegemony
While acknowledging the current dominance of the US dollar and its financial markets, Fishman warns that this position is being actively eroded. He argues that the overuse of sanctions and political actions that undermine global confidence are incentivizing countries like Russia and blocs like Europe to seek alternatives.
The long-term stability of dollar-denominated assets faces growing political risk, suggesting that global capital may increasingly seek diversification, potentially leading to a more multipolar currency system.