Edward Fishman

Geopolitical analyst and expert specializing in economic warfare and sanctions.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

Economic statecraft, including sanctions and export controls, has supplanted military power as the primary arena for great power competition in the 21st century.

China has strategically secured dominance over future economic choke points, particularly the entire clean energy supply chain and rare earth mineral refining, posing a significant long-term challenge to the U.S. and its allies.

The Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran was a profound foreign policy failure that yielded no gains while allowing Iran to become a threshold nuclear power.

The overuse of unilateral U.S. economic sanctions and destabilizing political actions are actively eroding global confidence in the U.S. dollar, putting its status as the world's primary reserve currency in a 'precarious position'.

Iran has demonstrated that a smaller power can successfully use asymmetric military tactics to control a vital geographic choke point, thereby achieving major strategic and economic concessions from global powers.

Podcast consensus on Fishman

Points of consensus

▶Across multiple appearances, Fishman consistently identifies the next major geopolitical choke point as clean energy technology (electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels), emphasizing that China controls these supply chains.Apr 2026

▶He repeatedly states that prior to a recent conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was the transit route for 20% of the world's daily oil and gas supplies.Apr 2026

▶Fishman asserts in several podcasts that China controls a critical economic choke point by refining 90% of the global supply of rare earth minerals.Apr 2026

▶He consistently argues that by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has secured sanctions relief that is more significant in some respects than what it achieved through the 2015 nuclear deal.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Fishman describes the Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran as one of the 'worst policy decisions' of the 21st century for failing to achieve its goals, yet he also presents it as a key demonstration that the U.S. can impose severe economic pressure unilaterally without allies.Apr 2026

▶He highlights the U.S. dollar's role as a powerful economic choke point used in 90% of foreign exchange transactions, but simultaneously warns that due to U.S. policy, the dollar is in a 'very precarious position' for the first time in his adult life.Apr 2026

▶Fishman details the immense power of U.S. economic tools like semiconductor export controls, but also warns that their widespread use against many countries incentivizes a global move toward autarky, which could erode their effectiveness.Apr 2026

▶He expresses concern that if economic warfare tools lose their efficacy, it could lead to more military conflict, suggesting a tension between the current utility of these tools and their potential to create future instability.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Era of Economic WarfareApr 2026

Fishman's central thesis is that sanctions, export controls, and tariffs have become the primary instruments of great power competition. He analyzes how nations weaponize economic dependencies, from the US leveraging the dollar system to China controlling critical mineral supply chains.

For investors and analysts, this theme underscores the need to evaluate geopolitical risk not just in terms of military conflict, but as a constant threat to supply chains, market access, and financial systems.

▶Geopolitical Choke Points: From Geography to TechnologyApr 2026

Fishman frequently uses the concept of 'choke points' to explain geopolitical leverage. He extends this idea from traditional geographic points like the Strait of Hormuz to modern technological domains, such as semiconductors, rare earth minerals, and, most critically for the future, clean energy technology.

This framework suggests that future geopolitical power will be determined less by military might and more by control over the essential inputs of the 21st-century global economy, making supply chain resilience a national security imperative.

▶Iran's Asymmetric SuccessApr 2026

Fishman presents Iran's strategy in the Strait of Hormuz as a case study in successful asymmetric warfare. He details how Iran used low-cost drones and missiles to gain control over a vital global artery, forcing concessions and securing revenue streams that circumvented sanctions.

This analysis serves as a playbook for how smaller, sanctioned states can exploit the dependencies of larger powers, indicating that similar disruptive tactics could be deployed in other global choke points, both physical and digital.

▶The Precariousness of US Economic HegemonyApr 2026

While acknowledging the current dominance of the US dollar and its financial markets, Fishman warns that this position is being actively eroded. He argues that the overuse of sanctions and political actions that undermine global confidence are incentivizing countries like Russia and blocs like Europe to seek alternatives.

The long-term stability of dollar-denominated assets faces growing political risk, suggesting that global capital may increasingly seek diversification, potentially leading to a more multipolar currency system.

Source episodes

Timeline

2005-2009

Fishman references this period as a time when the U.S. 'almost certainly' removed sanctions pressure on North Korea prematurely.

2014-2015

Cites this period as an example of effective sanctions, noting that the Russian economy contracted at a 10% annualized rate in the winter.

Trump Administration (2017-2021)

Fishman identifies this era as a turning point, marked by the 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran, the weaponization of semiconductor controls against Chinese firms like ZTE and Huawei, and actions that he believes began to undermine global confidence in the U.S. dollar.

2018

Points to this year as when Russia's central bank, following U.S. sanctions pressure, sold all of its U.S. dollar holdings and reallocated them to euros.

Biden Administration (2021-Present)

Observes that this administration expanded upon Trump-era policies by scaling up semiconductor export controls to cover the entire Chinese economy.

April 2026

In podcast appearances dated for April 2026, Fishman analyzes a hypothetical recent conflict where Iran has successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz, institutionalized passage fees, and secured major sanctions relief, including the ability to sell oil directly to the U.S.

Suggested prompts

How does Fishman's concept of 'multipolar economic warfare' challenge traditional models of US-led sanctions regimes? &nearr;Based on Fishman's analysis of Iran's success, what other nations are best positioned to leverage asymmetric tactics against global choke points? &nearr;What specific policy actions, according to Fishman's logic, would most effectively counter China's dominance in the clean energy choke point? &nearr;Fishman identifies a tension between the effectiveness of unilateral US sanctions and the long-term stability of the US-led financial system. At what point does the latter's erosion outweigh the former's benefits? &nearr;

Key concepts

Geopolitical Choke Points 4 ep China 4 ep Sanctions 4 ep Iran & Strait of Hormuz 3 ep US Dollar 3 ep Clean Energy Technology 3 ep Rare Earth Minerals 2 ep Economic Warfare 1 ep Semiconductors 1 ep US Foreign Policy 1 ep

Notable quotes

“we were living in an age of economic warfare in which sanctions, export controls, investment restrictions, tariffs were becoming the primary way that great powers were competing with one another and that this would only continue.”

Edward Fishman · A New Era of Economic Warfare | Shield of the Republic

“I think the future choke point that I'm worried about right now is actually clean energy technology. ... And guess what? You know who controls all of those choke points? China.”

Edward Fishman · Intel Wins Google Promise to Keep Using Xeon in Data Centers | Bloomberg Businessweek

“maximum pressure in retrospect was one of the worst policy decisions we've seen in the 21st century of American foreign policy because we didn't really gain anything. And as we all know, Iran has a breakout, basically a threshold nuclear capability right now.”

Edward Fishman · A New Era of Economic Warfare | Shield of the Republic

“i do think that for the first time really in my own adult life i do think the dollar is in a very precarious position um and it's really driven by the fact that trump has done everything that he possibly could to undermine confidence in the dollar”

Edward Fishman · A New Era of Economic Warfare | Shield of the Republic

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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