It will likely take until the end of the current month for the Strait of Hormuz to be considered safe and clear for normal shipping traffic to resume.

Bob McNally predicts that Asian countries, particularly China, will seek to build even larger strategic petroleum reserves in response to the recent supply disruption.

Bob McNally predicts Brent crude prices could surpass $100 per barrel in July and August due to deep inventory draws and high seasonal demand.

Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group asserts that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed because Iran requires ships to comply with its armed forces for passage.

Bob McNally predicts it will take at least three to four months for oil production and transit to normalize after a deal, while repairs to LNG facilities could take years.

European refiners are reducing their operating runs because refining margins have turned negative.

China has stockpiled between 1.2 and 1.3 billion barrels of crude oil, providing a significant buffer against current supply disruptions.

Bob McNally believes the conflict between the US and Iran must get worse before it gets better.

China is managing the oil supply disruption better than many of its Asian neighbors due to its large crude inventories of 1.2 billion barrels.

Bob McNally does not expect China to militarily challenge the US blockade of Iran.

China is managing the loss of approximately 1.6 million barrels per day of Iranian oil by drawing down its strategic stocks and cutting refinery runs.

Bob McNally believes Iran realizes it will not be permitted to act as the long-term 'tollkeeper' of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bob McNally expects that either a ceasefire will allow a full resumption of Hormuz flows in the coming weeks, or the U.S. military will degrade Iran's ability to interrupt shipping.

A prolonged conflict in the Persian Gulf risks extensive damage to physical energy infrastructure, which would extend the recovery of oil flows beyond the currently estimated three to four months.

Bob McNally believes China's economic and financial ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are more significant than its relationship with Iran.

Bob McNally predicts there will eventually be a comprehensive settlement between the US and Iran covering nuclear issues, missiles, proxies, and frozen assets, leading to the lifting of blockades.

Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group has outlined a scenario where a significant increase in energy prices could lead to a major negative impact on economic growth, raising the possibility of a recessi...