Jackie Baker

Real estate market analyst and commentator

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

Zillow's housing affordability forecast is 'disingenuous' because it omits crucial and rising costs like property taxes and homeowner's insurance.

A significant increase in housing inventory and competition is the only condition under which U.S. home prices will meaningfully decrease.

Public sentiment is more bearish than economic models suggest; a 6% mortgage rate is not low enough to motivate 80% of potential homebuyers.

Rising property taxes are not just a minor expense but a primary driver of foreclosures in the United States.

National housing trends are misleading, as major markets in the Northeast will remain chronically unaffordable due to severe and persistent inventory shortages.

Podcast consensus on Baker

Points of consensus

▶Jackie Baker consistently cites Zillow's own data points, such as the forecast for improved affordability in 20 of 50 metro areas by 2026, the current mortgage payment-to-income ratio (32.6%), and the October 2023 all-time low for affordability (38.2%).Apr 2026

▶Baker's analysis is grounded in the core economic principle that housing prices are fundamentally driven by supply and demand, asserting that prices will not fall without a significant increase in inventory and competition.Apr 2026

▶She accepts the components of Zillow's forecast as stated, including assumptions of 1% home value growth, mortgage rates falling to near 6%, and a 3.3% rise in incomes, but she debates the conclusion drawn from these inputs.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Jackie Baker directly disputes Zillow's forecast of improving housing affordability, labeling it 'disingenuous' for failing to account for rising property taxes and homeowner's insurance.Apr 2026

▶While Zillow predicts affordability will improve nationwide, Baker argues that major markets in the U.S. Northeast (NJ, NY, MA) will continue to face severe affordability issues due to persistent inventory shortages.Apr 2026

▶Baker's polling data indicates strong public skepticism that contradicts Zillow's assumptions; 80% of respondents do not consider a 6% mortgage rate low enough to motivate a purchase, challenging the forecast's reliance on falling rates to improve the market.Apr 2026

▶Baker contends that the projected 3.3% wage increase cited in Zillow's forecast is insufficient to meaningfully improve housing affordability, contrasting with Zillow's position that rising incomes are a key pillar of their optimistic outlook.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶Critique of Institutional ForecastsApr 2026

Jackie Baker systematically deconstructs Zillow's housing affordability forecast, arguing it is overly optimistic and methodologically flawed. She claims the forecast is 'disingenuous' because it omits critical expenses like rising property taxes and insurance, which she believes are primary drivers of foreclosures.

Analysts should be cautious of headline affordability metrics from major platforms, as they may not capture the full spectrum of homeownership costs that impact consumer behavior and market stability.

▶Consumer Sentiment vs. Market ModelsApr 2026

Baker emphasizes a disconnect between economic models and public perception. She presents poll data showing that 80% of potential buyers find a 6% mortgage rate unappealing, directly challenging the assumption that rate drops to this level will significantly stimulate demand.

Investor models relying solely on macroeconomic inputs like mortgage rates and income growth may misjudge market turning points if they fail to account for deeply entrenched consumer sentiment and higher rate expectations.

▶The Primacy of Housing InventoryApr 2026

A core tenet of Baker's analysis is that housing inventory is the ultimate determinant of home prices. She predicts that prices will not decrease without a substantial increase in supply and that regions with chronic shortages, like the Northeast, will defy national affordability trends.

For investors, this highlights the importance of regional, supply-side analysis over broad national forecasts, as markets with persistent inventory constraints may offer more price stability or growth potential.

▶The Overlooked Costs of HomeownershipApr 2026

Baker consistently highlights that affordability extends beyond the mortgage payment. She asserts that rising property taxes are a leading cause of foreclosures and, along with insurance, represent a significant and growing burden that models like Zillow's ignore.

This focus suggests that total cost of ownership, rather than just purchase price and interest rates, is becoming a more critical metric for assessing long-term housing market health and risk.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Pre-COVID-19

Cites data showing mortgage payments on a typical U.S. home required a relatively stable 22.5% to 26.5% of median household income.

2022-08

References this month as the last time housing affordability was at the 'current' level, establishing a recent benchmark for comparison.

2023-10

Highlights this month as the point where U.S. housing affordability reached an 'all-time low,' with a typical mortgage requiring 38.2% of median income.

Current (Podcast Date)

Reports that the mortgage payment-to-income ratio has improved to 32.6% but begins her critique of Zillow's forward-looking forecasts.

End of Year Forecast

Discusses Zillow's near-term forecast, which assumes mortgage rates near 6% and the affordability ratio improving slightly to 31.8%.

2026

Analyzes and disputes Zillow's long-term forecast that housing will become more affordable in 20 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas.

Suggested prompts

How does Jackie Baker's focus on non-mortgage costs like property taxes challenge traditional models of housing affordability? &nearr;What are the potential consequences for the housing market if Baker's poll data accurately reflects consumer unwillingness to buy at 6% mortgage rates? &nearr;To what extent does Baker's regional analysis of the Northeast housing market undermine the validity of Zillow's national forecast? &nearr;What specific data would be needed to validate or disprove Baker's claim that rising property taxes are a primary cause of foreclosures? &nearr;

Key concepts

Housing Affordability 1 ep Zillow Forecasts 1 ep Mortgage Rates 1 ep Property Taxes 1 ep Housing Inventory 1 ep US Real Estate Market 1 ep Home Value Growth 1 ep Median Household Income 1 ep Homeowner's Insurance 1 ep

Notable quotes

“is this rate low enough to make you want to buy a home in 2026? Only 20% said yes. A resounding 80% said no, they need to go lower.”

Jackie Baker · Zillow Predicts Homes Will Be More AFFORDABLE in 2026

“affordability reached all-time lows in October of 2023 when a typical mortgage required 38.2% of median household income.”

Jackie Baker · Zillow Predicts Homes Will Be More AFFORDABLE in 2026

“Zillow is predicting that housing is going to become more affordable in 20 out of the 50 U.S. major metros by the end of 2026.”

Jackie Baker · Zillow Predicts Homes Will Be More AFFORDABLE in 2026

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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