Greer

Ambassador and analyst on geopolitics and international trade.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The European Union is not acting in good faith by failing to implement its tariff and non-tariff barrier commitments under the Turnberry Agreement.

China is actively weaponizing its dominance in critical minerals, which requires the US and its allies to urgently create alternative, secure supply chains through new agreements.

The Chinese government is deliberately undermining US foreign policy by directing its firms to violate sanctions on Iranian oil, a topic that must be addressed at the presidential level.

US economic strategy is correctly focused on targeted de-risking from China and domestic re-industrialization, not a complete and impractical economic separation.

The US must have 'hard conversations' with the EU about its trade practices, especially since the EU's trade surplus with the US now surpasses China's.

Podcast consensus on Greer

Points of consensus

▶Greer consistently asserts that the European Union has failed to comply with its tariff and non-tariff barrier commitments under the Turnberry Agreement, creating significant friction in the transatlantic relationship.May 2026

▶Greer views China's control over critical minerals as a deliberate geopolitical weapon, necessitating a coordinated response from the United States and its allies, such as the G7 and a potential plurilateral trade agreement.May 2026

▶Greer characterizes US economic policy toward China as a strategic 'de-risking' and diversification effort aimed at reducing reliance, rather than a 'massive economic decoupling'.May 2026

▶Greer claims the Chinese government is actively undermining US foreign policy by directing its oil refiners to ignore sanctions on Iranian crude oil.May 2026

Points of debate

▶Greer highlights a conflict between the United States' immediate actions to comply with the Turnberry Agreement and the European Union's prolonged failure to reciprocate on its commitments.May 2026

▶Greer identifies a tension between the G7's official alignment on countering China's weaponization of critical minerals and the practical challenge of forming and implementing a new plurilateral trade agreement to create alternative supply chains.May 2026

▶Greer contrasts the EU's historical pattern of resisting US foreign policy, such as its 'blocking statute' on Cuba sanctions, with the current imperative for close US-EU cooperation on shared threats like China's economic practices.May 2026

▶Greer notes a divergence in policy approaches, where the US is actively pursuing re-industrialization and trade deficit reduction, while simultaneously needing to manage trade disputes with key partners like the EU, which now has a larger trade surplus with the US than China.May 2026

Key themes

▶EU Non-Compliance with Trade AgreementsMay 2026

Greer argues that the European Union has failed to fulfill its key obligations under the Turnberry Agreement, concluded last summer. This includes not removing tariffs on industrial goods and not providing promised regulatory flexibility on issues like LNG and carbon border adjustments, despite the US immediately modifying its own tariffs.

Investors should monitor the resolution of the Turnberry Agreement dispute, as continued EU non-compliance could lead to retaliatory US tariffs or a breakdown in transatlantic trade cooperation, impacting automotive, agricultural, and industrial sectors.

▶Strategic Competition with China over Critical MineralsMay 2026

Greer frames China's control over critical minerals as a deliberate 'weaponization' of its supply chain dominance, citing instances of cutting off access to other nations. The US response, according to Greer, involves building a coalition with allies like Europe and Japan through the G7 and a potential plurilateral trade agreement to secure alternative supply chains.

This highlights a key area of geopolitical risk and opportunity; companies involved in mining, processing, and manufacturing of critical minerals outside of China may benefit from government support and strategic partnerships driven by this de-risking trend.

▶China's Defiance of US SanctionsMay 2026

Greer claims the Chinese government is actively directing its oil refiners to ignore US sanctions on Iranian crude oil. This non-compliance is presented as a direct challenge to US foreign policy and a key point of contention to be addressed at the highest diplomatic levels.

China's willingness to flout US sanctions creates instability in global energy markets and signals a more confrontational geopolitical stance, increasing the risk profile for companies with exposure to sanctioned entities or related supply chains.

▶US 'De-risking' from China, Not DecouplingMay 2026

Greer clarifies that US economic strategy is not a complete separation from China's economy, but a targeted reduction of reliance in critical sectors. This involves diversifying supply chains and pursuing domestic re-industrialization to expand the manufacturing sector's share of the economy.

This nuanced approach suggests that while some sectors face significant headwinds from US policy, a wholesale exit from the Chinese market is not the government's objective, creating a complex and selective operating environment for multinational corporations.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Decades ago

Greer cites French President Charles de Gaulle's withdrawal from NATO's integrated military command as a historical precedent for European strategic independence.

For years

Greer notes the EU has maintained a 'blocking statute' preventing compliance with U.S. sanctions against Cuba, another example of historical transatlantic policy divergence.

Last summer

The United States and the European Union concluded the Turnberry Agreement, an initial trade framework.

Following the agreement

The United States immediately began modifying its tariff rates to comply with the Turnberry Agreement.

Current

Greer asserts the EU has not yet complied with its tariff and non-tariff commitments. Simultaneously, Greer states China is directing its refiners to not comply with U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil.

Upcoming

Greer anticipates that China's non-compliance with sanctions on Iran will be a topic of discussion at the next meeting between the U.S. President and Xi Jinping.

Suggested prompts

What specific enforcement mechanisms can the US employ if the EU continues its non-compliance with the Turnberry Agreement? &nearr;How viable is the proposed plurilateral trade agreement on critical minerals as a counter to China's supply chain dominance? &nearr;What are the potential consequences for global oil markets and US foreign policy if China continues to openly defy US sanctions on Iranian crude? &nearr;How does Greer's distinction between 'de-risking' and 'decoupling' from China translate into tangible policy for US businesses operating in the region? &nearr;

Key concepts

Turnberry Agreement 1 ep Critical Minerals 1 ep US-China Relations 1 ep EU Trade Compliance 1 ep US Sanctions Policy 1 ep Geopolitics 1 ep US Trade Policy 1 ep Decoupling vs. De-risking 1 ep Tariffs 1 ep

Notable quotes

“The EU has had a lot of time, many, many months, to comply with their tariff commitments and their commitments on non-tariff barriers, and that hasn't materialized yet.”

Greer · Greer on EU Complying With US Trade Deal, Trump to China

“Beijing is basically refusing to comply with U.S. sanctions. I'm sure you've seen the reporting that they're telling some firms, some refiners, that they don't need to comply when it comes to imports of Iranian crude.”

Greer · Greer on EU Complying With US Trade Deal, Trump to China

“We put out a G7 statement that talks about that, but it's really about China weaponizing critical minerals, an area where France, the rest of Europe, and the United States are quite aligned on the way forward”

Greer · Greer on EU Complying With US Trade Deal, Trump to China

“That's why we're talking about having a plurilateral trade agreement on trade and critical minerals with Europe, with Japan and others.”

Greer · Greer on EU Complying With US Trade Deal, Trump to China

Report last updated: May 10, 2026

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