Historically, any industry that has appreciated 70% to 100% has gone on to outperform 65% of the time.

At the peak of the 2000 tech bubble, corporate America in aggregate was spending 3.5 to 4 times its free cash flow on CapEx.

The strongest historical correlate to corporate profit margins is unit labor costs.

The price performance of the semiconductor industry over the last two years has been less than its earnings growth.

Based on historical data, when the semiconductor industry is in the bottom quartile of its valuation range, the probability of outperformance over the next 12 months is 70%.

Historically, when semiconductor stocks have risen 100% over a year, they have gone on to outperform again the following year 55% of the time.

The historical sweet spot for equity market performance is when inflation is between 3% and 4%.

The ISM new orders index recently inflected higher for the first time in three years, signaling the start of a manufacturing recovery.

Excluding the shelter component, the Core CPI inflation rate last month was 2.3%.

High-beta technology stocks have been in a general downtrend relative to the broader technology sector since the 1990s.

Historical data shows a negative correlation between oil price shocks and Federal Reserve rate hikes, as the Fed is less likely to tighten policy in response to such shocks.

Currently, corporate America in aggregate is spending less than one times its free cash flow on CapEx, even including hyperscalers.

The U.S. is currently in the top quartile for core capital goods orders, which historically corresponds to a 65% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Unit labor costs in the U.S. are currently in the bottom quartile of their historical range.

Equal-weighted S&P 500 earnings growth was contractionary for the last three years, a duration comparable to past recessions.

The earnings recovery for the equal-weighted S&P 500 began approximately four months ago.

Historically, periods of higher uncertainty have correlated with higher odds of the stock market advancing, increased corporate hiring, and greater capital spending.

The aggregate technology sector has grown its free cash flow above its CapEx for the better part of the last 20 years.

During the 1990s tech bubble, the earnings of the median technology stock peaked in 1996, four years before the market's peak.

Historically, the highest probability for a stock market advance occurs when the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates by a small amount, between 25 and 100 basis points over a year.