James Davolos

Portfolio Manager at Horizon Kinetics, managing a $1.6 billion mandate focused on hard assets.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The global economy has entered a long-term, structural inflationary cycle, rendering traditional deflation-era investment strategies obsolete.

Hard assets, accessed through capital-light royalty and streaming models, represent the most effective way to preserve and grow capital in an inflationary environment.

The valuation paradigm that favored software and other long-duration growth assets is fundamentally broken due to rising discount rates and new technological risks.

A significant portion of the US real estate market is functionally insolvent, 'frozen' by debt underwritten at unsustainably low capitalization rates.

Financial exchanges are a superior business model due to their high margins, regulatory moats, and direct benefit from market volume and volatility.

Podcast consensus on Davolos

Points of consensus

▶Davolos consistently advocates for investing in hard assets, specifically royalty and streaming companies, as a primary strategy to combat a new inflationary environment, citing their capital-light nature and long-term value optionality.Jun 2026

▶He repeatedly critiques official inflation metrics like the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), arguing they are methodologically flawed, particularly in their use of 'owner's equivalent rent,' and therefore understate real-world price increases.Jun 2026

▶A core tenet of his investment philosophy is a long-term holding period, with his firm, Horizon Kinetics, underwriting investments for a minimum of 5 years and an ideal timeframe of 7 years to forever.Jun 2026

▶He champions specific capital-light business models, such as financial exchanges and royalty companies, for their ability to generate high operating margins (40-60%) and benefit from transaction volume and volatility.Jun 2026

Points of debate

▶His assertion that the global economy is in the 'early innings' of a 'very long cycle of structurally higher inflation' presents a contrarian view to mainstream economic forecasts that often treat inflation as more cyclical or transitory.Jun 2026

▶Davolos's argument that the market narrative of software as an 'unassailable moated business' is permanently broken challenges the long-held tech industry consensus that has awarded premium, long-duration valuations to software companies.Jun 2026

▶His claim that a significant portion of US real estate is 'essentially frozen' due to being underwritten at perpetually low interest rate assumptions suggests a more severe and prolonged downturn for the sector than many institutional analyses predict.Jun 2026

▶His inclusion of Bitcoin as a likely long-term component of asset allocation, due to its finite supply, places him in a camp that is still debated and not fully accepted by many traditional asset managers.Jun 2026

Key themes

▶The New Era of Structural InflationJun 2026

Davolos argues that the global economy has entered a prolonged period of structurally higher inflation, not a transitory spike. He believes official metrics like the CPI are flawed and mask the true extent of price increases, particularly in housing, which makes up 42% of the index.

This theme suggests that traditional portfolio allocations are ill-equipped for the coming economic environment, necessitating a fundamental shift toward real, productive assets over financial assets.

▶The Superiority of Asset-Light CompoundersJun 2026

This theme focuses on identifying businesses that can grow with minimal capital expenditure. Davolos champions royalty companies and financial exchanges, which benefit from commodity price appreciation and market volume, respectively, and can achieve operating margins of 40-60%.

Davolos redefines the 'asset-light' ideal away from software, which he sees as having newly exposed vulnerabilities, toward businesses with tangible, volume-based, and inflation-protected revenue streams.

▶The Unwinding of Zero-Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP)Jun 2026

Davolos details the consequences of the end of an era of perpetually low interest rates. He points to the US real estate market as being 'essentially frozen' because assets were underwritten with assumptions that are no longer valid, and argues the valuation paradigm for software is similarly broken.

This perspective implies that significant repricing and distress are still ahead for asset classes that were the primary beneficiaries of low rates, creating opportunities for investors who remained disciplined.

▶Unlocking Hidden Value in Hard AssetsJun 2026

Davolos sees immense, underappreciated value in hard assets, particularly when accessed through royalty structures. He highlights how companies like Franco-Nevada have vastly outperformed their initial reserve estimates and predicts more miners will spin out royalties to unlock shareholder value.

This investment thesis is a bet on both inflation and the market's chronic undervaluation of long-term optionality embedded in physical resource ownership.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Macro Thesis Establishment

Davolos establishes his core belief that the global economy is in the early stages of a long cycle of structurally higher inflation, arguing that official metrics like CPI are flawed and understate the reality.

Identification of Market Vulnerabilities

He identifies major market dislocations stemming from the end of the low-interest-rate era, specifically the 'frozen' US real estate market and the broken valuation narrative for software companies.

Strategy Formulation

In response to this environment, Davolos outlines Horizon Kinetics' strategy: a long-term investment horizon (5-7+ years) focused on hard assets and inflation beneficiaries.

Asset Class Focus: Royalties & Land

He details the attractiveness of royalty companies (precious metals, coal, iron ore) and land-based royalty holders like Texas Pacific Land as prime investments, highlighting their capital-light nature and counter-cyclical opportunities.

Asset Class Focus: Exchanges

He expands his asset-light thesis to include financial exchanges like Brazil's B3, citing their high operating margins and revenue generation from transaction volume.

Forward-Looking Predictions

He offers predictions on the future of finance and assets, including the growth of royalty financing in mining and the likely integration of Bitcoin into long-term asset allocation.

Suggested prompts

How does James Davolos's thesis on the 'frozen' real estate market impact the outlook for regional banks and commercial mortgage-backed securities? &nearr;What are the primary risks to the royalty and streaming business model that Davolos champions, particularly in a scenario of prolonged commodity price depression? &nearr;If Davolos is correct about the breakdown of the software valuation narrative, which sub-sectors of technology are most vulnerable and which might prove resilient? &nearr;How would Davolos's preferred assets (royalties, exchanges, land) perform in a deflationary economic shock, and does his strategy account for this possibility? &nearr;

Key concepts

Royalty Companies 7 ep Inflation & CPI 4 ep Energy Markets 3 ep Financial Exchanges 2 ep Business Model Analysis 2 ep Mining Sector Financing 2 ep Bitcoin & Digital Assets 2 ep Real Estate Market 1 ep Investment Horizon 1 ep

Notable quotes

“If you're looking in the right areas and in the right subsets of inflation, I think that you're in the early innings of what's going to be a very long cycle of structurally higher inflation, and a lot of that's going to bleed through into the more broader composites.”

James Davolos · The $1.6 Billion Bet on Hard Assets (James Davolos)

“There's a lot of real estate in the United States that is essentially frozen because they were underwritten at capitalization rates, which is really a derivative of, let's say, the 10-year— maybe you could anchor that to shorter-term rates, but these deals were predicated on, let's say, perpetual 2% max risk-free rates.”

James Davolos · The $1.6 Billion Bet on Hard Assets (James Davolos)

“it's going to be really difficult for the market to then go back to this narrative that software is this unassailable moated business that it once was.”

James Davolos · The $1.6 Billion Bet on Hard Assets (James Davolos)

“Talking to physical energy traders at some of the big commodity brokers, they're telling me that in parts of Southeast Asia, you have an equivalent of $200 oil to get it basically delivered right now.”

James Davolos · The $1.6 Billion Bet on Hard Assets (James Davolos)

Report last updated: Jun 10, 2026

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