Joe Lavorgna

Economist, Former Chief Economist of the National Economic Council · Person

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Joe Lavorgna - Economist, Former Chief Economist of the National Economic Council. Tracked across 22 mentions in podcasts and expert conversations analyzed by Sonic.

What Joe Lavorgna has said

Joe Lavorgna of SMBC warns that the stock market's narrow leadership could unravel quickly if financial conditions tighten and risk appetite changes.

bearish·Karen Moscow

The war in the Middle East fundamentally changed the economic dynamics, derailing a potential "disinflationary boom."

bearish·Joe Lavorgna

Over the last couple of years, inflation has run approximately 75 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target.

neutral·Joe Lavorgna

Joe Lavorgna of SMBC warns that the stock market's narrow leadership could unravel quickly if financial conditions tighten and risk appetite changes.

Expert perspectiveKaren MoscowMay 20

The war in the Middle East fundamentally changed the economic dynamics, derailing a potential "disinflationary boom."

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

Over the last couple of years, inflation has run approximately 75 basis points above the Federal Reserve's target.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

In the short term, the buildout of data centers for AI may be contributing to inflation due to increased energy usage.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The New York Fed's Global Pressure Supply Index indicates ongoing supply chain disruptions that are pro-inflationary.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

In the longer term, AI is likely to be disinflationary.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The stock market is a dominant driver of policy decisions for Donald Trump.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

Excluding the healthcare sector, there has not been a significant amount of job growth in the US economy.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The Federal Reserve would likely only cut interest rates if there is significant labor market deterioration, such as the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, 4.8%, and then 5.1%.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

Raising interest rates to combat inflation, which is currently 1 to 1.5 percentage points above target, generally leads to a recession.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The pressure point for the US President to take strong action regarding Iran could be gasoline prices reaching $6 or $7 per gallon.

SpeculativeJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The United States is unlikely to implement fiscal austerity measures because neither major political party supports them.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The specific 10-year Treasury yield that would destabilize the financial system is unknown, but could be around 4.75% or 5%.

SpeculativeJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The market has only priced in about one interest rate tightening from the Federal Reserve, but Joe Lavorgna believes a series of tightenings could potentially occur.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The bond market is not fully appreciating the inflationary impact of current supply chain disruptions.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

The "supercore" inflation metric favored by former Fed Chair Jay Powell has been running at approximately 3.5%.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

If the Federal Reserve avoids raising rates to prevent a recession, it would implicitly change its inflation target, resulting in a higher interest rate environment and a steeper yield curve.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

When the S&P 500 declined by 15%, President Donald Trump quickly pivoted on policy, which led to a massive market rally.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

Joe Lavorgna predicts that interest rates will rise due to a higher inflation risk premium and the U.S. Treasury's need to increase supply.

Expert perspectiveJoe LavorgnaMay 19

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