The clean energy transition is no longer just an environmental goal but a core imperative for national security and sovereignty in a fragmented world.
The decline of the U.S.-led 'rules-based order' is a reality acknowledged even by the U.S. government, forcing middle powers to pursue greater strategic autonomy and forge their own alliances.
The risk of nuclear proliferation is increasing significantly, as nations like Iran, Japan, and South Korea will be driven to develop their own deterrents if they lose faith in the U.S. security guarantee.
China's overwhelming dominance in the deployment of renewable energy and energy storage is a central, unavoidable fact of the global energy landscape.
The most economic form of new power generation is solar and wind backed by storage, rendering new coal-fired power stations economically unviable in countries like Australia.
Post-2016 election
Identifies the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a key event signaling a U.S. retreat from the established international order.
January 2017
Recalls personally persuading then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to proceed with the TPP without the U.S., marking a moment where middle powers took the lead on major international agreements.
Recent
Observes a strategic shift in China's foreign policy from its aggressive 'wolf warrior' diplomacy to a 'charm offensive,' including public speeches by Xi Jinping emphasizing the rule of law.
Current
Asserts that recent global conflicts will be interpreted by Iran as a clear lesson to accelerate its development of a nuclear weapon for its own security.
▶The Geopolitics of Energy TransitionApr 2026
Turnbull frames the shift to clean energy as a critical element of national security and strategic autonomy. He argues that reducing dependence on imported liquid fuels and building domestic renewable capacity is now essential for maintaining sovereignty in an increasingly fragmented world.
Investors should assess renewable energy projects not only on their economic returns but also as strategic national assets that mitigate geopolitical supply chain risks, potentially attracting significant government support.
▶Nuclear Proliferation in a Multipolar WorldApr 2026
Turnbull expresses significant concern that the erosion of confidence in the U.S. nuclear umbrella will trigger a new wave of nuclear proliferation. He posits that nations like Japan and South Korea have the capability to develop weapons quickly, and recent conflicts will only strengthen Iran's resolve to acquire a nuclear deterrent.
Analysts must monitor shifts in U.S. alliance commitments closely, as any perceived weakening could be a leading indicator of regional arms races, fundamentally altering security dynamics and increasing market volatility in East Asia and the Middle East.
▶The Fading 'Rules-Based Order'Apr 2026
Turnbull contends that the U.S.-led 'international rules-based order' is in decline, citing the U.S. government's own description of it as a 'cloud castle abstraction' and actions like the withdrawal from the TPP. This forces middle powers to navigate a more transactional and less predictable global environment.
The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar system creates risks but also opportunities for regional blocs and middle powers, suggesting that investment strategies should diversify away from U.S.-centric assumptions and focus more on regional dynamics and alliances.
▶China's Dominance in Green TechnologyApr 2026
Turnbull highlights China's overwhelming scale in the green transition, particularly in deploying renewable generation and energy storage. He notes China is expected to add 200 gigawatts of pumped hydro by the mid-2030s, dwarfing other nations' efforts.
China's control over renewable energy supply chains presents both a collaboration opportunity and a strategic vulnerability for other nations, making investments in non-Chinese alternative technologies and domestic manufacturing increasingly critical for long-term energy security.