According to a recent survey, the percentage of real estate market participants who believe now is a good time to sell is at a 15-year low of 4%.

The logistics real estate sector has seen as many sales transactions in the first 75 days of the year as the multifamily sector, a shift from the typical pattern where multifamily leads.

The percentage of real estate survey respondents who believe now is a good time to build has doubled over the last 12 months, from the mid-teens to the upper 20s.

Kris Mikkelsen predicts the 10-year Treasury yield will be range-bound between 4.0% and 4.5% a year from now, settling around 4.25%.

Kris Mikkelsen predicts that the Fifth Amendment's Takings Clause will become a central topic of conversation over the next 5 to 6 months regarding the proposed build-for-rent legislation.

Retention ratios for public multifamily REITs are currently in the mid-60% to 70% range, with renewal rent increases between 4% and 6%.

Current multifamily construction starts are 55-60% below peak levels and 20-25% below the average levels seen from 2015 to 2019.

Kris Mikkelsen predicts that 2026 will be a recovery year for multifamily real estate, with material fundamental improvements beginning in 2027 due to a lack of new inventory.

Trailing 12-month multifamily absorption peaked mid-year 2024 at approximately 785,000 units before decelerating to the mid-to-upper 300,000 unit range by year-end.