Alex Immerman

Investor and analyst at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) Growth fund.

Mentions

Appeared in

Discussed in

Key positions and views

Autonomous vehicles, led by Waymo, will fundamentally reshape and expand the transportation market by at least 10x due to lower costs and superior technology.

The financial bar for a top-tier venture capital success has grown exponentially and will continue to do so, requiring startups to achieve multi-tens-of-billions in valuation to be considered a top 1% outcome.

Generative AI represents a platform shift generating unprecedented revenue growth, with leading companies achieving a scale that rivals a significant portion of the established public cloud market.

The most successful modern fintechs are diversified platforms with multiple major revenue streams, high customer retention, and strong unit economics, rather than single-product companies.

Some of the most impactful and valuable technology companies are those that apply technology to solve fundamental, often overlooked, societal problems like crime.

Podcast consensus on Immerman

Points of consensus

▶Waymo is presented as a dominant and rapidly expanding force in autonomous ride-sharing, outperforming competitors like Lyft and Tesla's FSD on key metrics in specific markets like San Francisco.Apr 2026

▶The scale of success in venture capital has fundamentally shifted since 2009, with both the number of companies reaching $100M in annual revenue and the valuation of a top 1% outcome increasing by an order of magnitude.

▶Generative AI is experiencing hyper-growth, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic adding revenue at a scale comparable to a significant portion of the entire public cloud market.Apr 2026

▶Andreessen Horowitz's growth fund strategy is deeply integrated with its early-stage pipeline, with approximately half of its investments being follow-on rounds into breakout companies from the firm's own early funds.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶A key debate highlighted is the technological approach to autonomous driving, contrasting Waymo's LIDAR-inclusive system, which Immerman deems safer, with Tesla's camera-only Full Self-Driving (FSD) system.

▶Immerman points to a significant disruption in the ride-sharing duopoly, detailing how Waymo rapidly surpassed Lyft's market share in San Francisco to become a primary competitor to Uber.Apr 2026

▶He identifies a financial debate around new AI companies, contrasting their low (0-50%) gross margins against the traditional 70% benchmark for software companies, raising questions about their long-term business models.

▶The leadership in the prediction market space is shown as a contested area, noting that while Kalshi is now the leader, it was the number two player at the time of a16z's investment, indicating a dynamic competitive landscape.

Key themes

▶The Autonomous Revolution and Market ExpansionApr 2026

Immerman presents a detailed case for Waymo's dominance in the autonomous vehicle space, citing its market share gains over Lyft in San Francisco, superior safety metrics compared to Tesla, and aggressive expansion plans. He argues that the lower cost of autonomous vehicles will not just compete within the existing ride-sharing market but will expand the total addressable market by at least an order of magnitude.

The analysis suggests the winning strategy in autonomous vehicles is not just technological superiority but a pragmatic go-to-market approach, combining premium service positioning with strategic partnerships (like with Uber) to accelerate customer acquisition and market penetration.

▶Exponential Scaling in AI and Venture CapitalApr 2026

This theme connects the unprecedented revenue growth of AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic with the rising bar for success in venture capital. Immerman quantifies AI's economic impact by comparing its recent revenue addition to half the public cloud universe and notes that the valuation for a top 1% VC outcome has grown from $1.5B to $10B and is projected to hit $40B.

This dual trend suggests a feedback loop where AI's massive potential justifies higher valuations, which in turn concentrates capital into perceived mega-winners and fundamentally alters the risk/reward calculation for growth-stage investors across the entire tech sector.

▶The Modern Diversified Fintech PlaybookApr 2026

Immerman highlights a new model for successful fintech companies, using Revolut and Robinhood as prime examples. He emphasizes their strength in having multiple, distinct revenue streams (10+ for each), high net revenue retention, and strong unit economics like a 40% Return on Equity, which surpasses competitors.

This focus indicates a shift away from single-product fintechs towards multi-faceted financial platforms as the winning model, as diversification builds resilience and increases the lifetime value of each customer.

▶Underappreciated Technology with Societal ImpactApr 2026

Immerman champions Flock Safety as the 'most underappreciated company in America,' grounding this view in its tangible societal impact. He claims the company's technology helps solve 2,800 criminal cases daily, accounting for an estimated 15% of reported crime in the U.S.

This highlights an investment thesis focused on companies providing critical, tech-enabled infrastructure for civic functions, suggesting that massive value can be unlocked by solving fundamental, often overlooked, societal problems that government and traditional industries have struggled with.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2009 (Baseline)

Establishes a baseline for venture capital market dynamics, where an estimated 15 companies reached $100 million in annual revenue per year and a top 1% VC outcome was valued at under $1.5 billion.

Historical Benchmark

Notes the traditional VC standard for software companies was 70% gross margins, a benchmark now being challenged by new AI companies.

Recent Past

Describes a16z's investment strategy, including leading Series A, B, and C for Eleven Labs and investing in Kalshi when it was the #2 player in its market.

Last Year / Current

Highlights a period of intense market disruption and hyper-growth, citing OpenAI and Anthropic's massive revenue gains, Waymo's rapid market share capture in San Francisco, and Flock Safety's daily impact on solving crime.

This Year (Forecast)

Points to imminent strategic shifts, including Waymo's planned expansion to over 20 new cities and Elon Musk's announcement of Tesla shifting vehicle production capacity to the Optimus robot.

Future (8-10 Years)

Projects a future of exponential market growth, forecasting that the ride-sharing market will grow by an order of magnitude and the valuation for a top 1% VC outcome will reach $40 billion.

Suggested prompts

How does Immerman's thesis on the 10x growth of the ride-sharing market depend on regulatory approval and public acceptance of autonomous vehicles? &nearr;What are the second-order effects on urban planning, public transit, and car ownership if Immerman's prediction about a Waymo-led autonomous oligopoly comes true? &nearr;Given Immerman's observation on low AI margins, what specific business model innovations or technological efficiencies could allow AI companies to achieve profitability comparable to traditional SaaS? &nearr;Immerman identifies Flock Safety as 'underappreciated.' What other sectors or companies fit his thesis of applying technology to solve fundamental civic problems, and what are their investment merits? &nearr;

Key concepts

Waymo 10 ep Venture Capital & Market Dynamics 8 ep Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) 7 ep AI (OpenAI, Anthropic, Harvey) 6 ep Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX, xAI) 6 ep Ride-sharing Market 6 ep Flock Safety 4 ep Kalshi 4 ep Revolut 3 ep Eleven Labs 2 ep

Notable quotes

“[0:04:22 -> 0:04:37] If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the Mag7.”

Alex Immerman · Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi

“[0:29:41 -> 0:29:50] I mean, Robinhood in particular, they have 11 lines of business that are doing 100 million or more in revenue.”

Alex Immerman · Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi

“[0:40:20 -> 0:40:27] common wisdom that there were 15 companies that would get to 100 million revenue. Today, we believe that's like 10x larger, like 150 every year.”

Alex Immerman · Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi

“[0:40:50 -> 0:41:19] Every five years, that top 1% outcome doubles. And so if you were to fast forward another eight to 10 years, that's 40 billion is the top 1% outcome.”

Alex Immerman · Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

Get started free

Back to Entities Intelligence Report