Pete Shadbolt

Co-founder of PsiQuantum, advocating for a manufacturing-first, photonics-based approach to large-scale quantum computing.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

Leveraging the existing semiconductor industry is the only plausible path to building a commercially viable, million-qubit quantum computer.

It is strategically superior to bypass incremental, smaller-scale quantum systems and focus exclusively on developing a commercially useful, large-scale machine from the outset.

The first commercially valuable applications of quantum computing, such as in materials science and chemistry, will require fewer resources and arrive sooner than the ability to break public-key encryption.

A vertically integrated business model, where PsiQuantum uses its own computers for in-house discovery, is the ultimate goal to capture the most value from the technology.

The threshold for a quantum computer to become commercially impactful for significant problems is approximately one million qubits.

Podcast consensus on Shadbolt

Points of consensus

▶The general consensus in the quantum computing field is that a machine with approximately one million qubits is required for commercially impactful applications.Apr 2026

▶A sufficiently large-scale quantum computer has the capability to break most of the public-key encryption currently used on the internet.Apr 2026

▶Google has successfully demonstrated quantum computing systems with approximately 100 qubits, representing the state-of-the-art in smaller-scale systems.Apr 2026

▶NVIDIA is not building its own full-stack quantum computer but is contributing to the ecosystem through software and other hardware components.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶PsiQuantum's founding thesis that leveraging existing semiconductor fabs is the *only* plausible way to scale to a million qubits is a strong, contrarian position against competing modalities like superconducting qubits or trapped ions.Apr 2026

▶The strategy to bypass incremental, smaller-scale quantum systems entirely is a high-risk, high-reward approach that contrasts with competitors who are commercializing smaller, noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices.Apr 2026

▶The long-term business model of vertical integration to exploit quantum knowledge in-house for applications like drug discovery differs from the more common cloud-access, quantum-computing-as-a-service model pursued by many competitors.Apr 2026

▶PsiQuantum's adherence to traditional, conservative semiconductor chip design processes, without using AI, contrasts with the growing trend of using AI for complex hardware design in other advanced technology sectors.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶Manufacturing-First ScalabilityApr 2026

Shadbolt asserts that PsiQuantum's core thesis is that the only feasible path to a million-qubit computer is by leveraging the existing global semiconductor industry. This involves a long-term, capital-intensive partnership with fabs like GlobalFoundries and adherence to traditional chip design practices.

This strategy trades near-term quantum advantage demonstrations for a potentially more scalable path to commercial viability, creating a high-stakes bet on a single manufacturing paradigm that requires immense capital before showing results.

▶Capital-Intensive 'Moonshot' ApproachApr 2026

PsiQuantum has deliberately focused all its resources on building a large-scale, commercially useful machine, bypassing smaller systems. This has attracted nearly $2 billion in private capital and major government deals in Australia and Chicago, positioning the company as a national-level strategic asset.

Shadbolt's narrative frames quantum computing not as an incremental research project but as a massive infrastructure and capital expenditure challenge, which justifies its significant funding and government backing by promising a definitive, rather than iterative, outcome.

▶Pragmatic Commercialization via AI/MLApr 2026

Shadbolt positions the primary commercial use of early large-scale quantum computers not as direct problem-solving, but as generating superior training data for classical machine learning systems. This focuses on high-value problems in chemistry and materials science, while noting that breaking encryption requires even greater resources.

This reframing of 'commercial use' lowers the immediate performance bar for the quantum computer itself, making it a powerful co-processor for existing AI workflows rather than a standalone replacement, potentially accelerating its path to revenue.

▶Vertical Integration as the EndgameApr 2026

The long-term business model described by Shadbolt is not to sell quantum computing time as a service, but to become a vertically integrated company. PsiQuantum intends to use its own machines to conduct in-house research and development for applications like drug and materials discovery, capturing the value directly.

This ambition to control both the computational platform and the applications built upon it suggests a strategy to create a deep, defensible moat, transforming from a hardware provider into a discovery-driven conglomerate.

Source episodes

Timeline

~2016-2024

PsiQuantum spends over eight years and more than $100 million establishing its manufacturing process at GlobalFoundries' fab in upstate New York.

Recent Past

Raises nearly $2 billion in private capital from investors including BlackRock, Baillie Gifford, and Temasek, reportedly more than any other quantum company.

Recent Past

Graduates to the final phase of a critical DARPA vetting program, becoming one of only two companies to reach that stage.

2023-2024

Announces major government-backed deals, including a ~A$1 billion project to build a computer in Brisbane, Australia, and becoming the anchor tenant of a new $500 million campus in Chicago.

End of 2027

Target date for enabling the first large-scale, 100-megawatt quantum computing site in Australia.

Suggested prompts

How does PsiQuantum's reliance on traditional semiconductor fabs create both a competitive advantage in scalability and a potential vulnerability if photonic chip manufacturing proves more complex than anticipated? &nearr;What are the financial and technical risks associated with PsiQuantum's 'all-or-nothing' strategy of bypassing smaller, revenue-generating quantum systems? &nearr;How might PsiQuantum's long-term goal of vertical integration for drug and materials discovery impact the broader quantum-as-a-service market? &nearr;Given the massive infrastructure requirements of 100-megawatt sites, what are the primary energy and logistical challenges facing PsiQuantum's deployment in Australia and Chicago? &nearr;

Key concepts

Quantum Technology & Scale 5 ep Manufacturing & Supply Chain 4 ep Quantum Computing Strategy 4 ep Government Partnerships 3 ep Fundraising & Capital 2 ep Commercial Applications 2 ep Encryption & Security 2 ep Industry Landscape 2 ep

Notable quotes

“The general consensus is that you need more like a million qubits to do anything commercially impactful with a quantum computer.”

Pete Shadbolt · Raising $2 Billion to Become the SpaceX of Quantum | PsiQuantum's Pete Shadbolt

“The only reason that we felt that was plausible is that our technology fits into the fabs and the OSATs and the contract manufacturers who are building millions of devices for the semiconductor industry every year.”

Pete Shadbolt · Raising $2 Billion to Become the SpaceX of Quantum | PsiQuantum's Pete Shadbolt

“This brings your total funding closer to $2 billion. In private capital, yeah. And I believe this is more than any other quantum computing company. That's right to my knowledge, yeah.”

Pete Shadbolt · Raising $2 Billion to Become the SpaceX of Quantum | PsiQuantum's Pete Shadbolt

“why would we not hire drug discovery people, hire material scientists, hire chemists, and start to actually exploit the knowledge and information that's coming out of that machine, exploit that directly, build something that is more vertically integrated.”

Pete Shadbolt · Raising $2 Billion to Become the SpaceX of Quantum | PsiQuantum's Pete Shadbolt

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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