Iran's nuclear and missile programs have been massively set back by U.S. and Israeli military action, to the point where Iran cannot currently access its stored highly enriched uranium.
Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are pragmatically realigning their foreign policy by hardening their own defenses, hedging with China, and deepening security ties with Israel and the U.S. in response to Iranian aggression.
The current conflict has forged an unprecedented level of operational military integration between the U.S. and Israel, fundamentally changing the strategic landscape of the Middle East.
Iran has successfully established a new de facto regime in the Strait of Hormuz, controlling passage for allies while blocking adversaries, which represents a major strategic defeat for the U.S. if not reversed.
Reports of near-successful U.S.-Iran diplomacy prior to the conflict were 'total nonsense,' indicating a fundamental and irreconcilable conflict of interests between the two nations.
Circa 2010s
The Obama administration's 'pivot to Asia' is perceived by Gulf partners as the U.S. abandoning them to Iran, prompting them to begin strengthening ties with China as a strategic hedge.
2020
Following the Abraham Accords, the Trump administration moves Israel from U.S. European Command (EUCOM) to Central Command (CENTCOM), laying the groundwork for future military integration with Arab states and the U.S. in the region.
March 2023
China brokers a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, Saudi officials privately complain that Iran immediately fails to uphold its commitments, continuing to arm the Houthis and advance its nuclear program.
Post-October 7, 2023
In the aftermath of the Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia advises Israel to conduct a 'relatively short and devastating' military response to avoid complicating future normalization efforts. Concurrently, trade between the UAE and Israel doubles during the high-intensity combat in Gaza.
During the Iran Conflict
An unprecedented level of U.S.-Israel military integration emerges, with joint planning and operations. Iran's strategy of attacking Gulf states backfires, causing them to coalesce against Tehran and healing a prior diplomatic rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Present Day Assessment
Cook assesses that Iran's nuclear and missile programs are severely set back, but Iran has established a new de facto control regime in the Strait of Hormuz, aided by real-time satellite intelligence from Russia.
▶Iran's Degraded but Persistent ThreatMay 2026
Cook argues that while U.S. and Israeli military actions have severely set back Iran's nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains a potent destabilizing force. It has established new de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz and continues to support its regional proxies, demonstrating a resilient, asymmetric threat.
This suggests that military containment alone is insufficient for long-term stability, implying sustained regional risk and the potential for protracted, low-intensity conflict even after high-intensity phases end.
▶Strategic Realignment of Gulf Powers
In response to a perceived U.S. withdrawal and direct Iranian aggression, Gulf states are diversifying their foreign policy. They are hedging with China for economic and strategic reasons, while simultaneously hardening their own defenses and coalescing with the U.S. and Israel against the immediate threat from Iran.
Investors should monitor the dual trends of regional self-reliance (defense spending, new alliances) and dependence on the U.S. security umbrella, as shifts in this balance will directly impact regional stability and market confidence.
▶Unprecedented U.S.-Israel Military IntegrationMay 2026
Cook highlights a historic level of operational coordination between the U.S. and Israeli militaries, which has moved beyond intelligence sharing to joint planning and combat missions. This integration was organizationally facilitated by moving Israel into CENTCOM's area of responsibility after the Abraham Accords.
This deep integration signals a powerful, unified front against Iran, altering the military calculus for all regional actors and increasing the likelihood of coordinated, large-scale military responses to future provocations.
▶Great Power Competition in the Middle EastMay 2026
The region is portrayed as a key arena for competition between the U.S., China, and Russia. China seeks economic stability for energy flows and markets, Russia provides direct intelligence support to Iran as retaliation against the U.S., and the U.S. attempts to manage global energy prices while containing Iran.
The region is no longer a unipolar U.S. domain; actions by any single power have cascading effects, creating a more volatile and unpredictable environment for energy markets and geopolitical risk analysis.