The new 2026 nuclear deal is a strategic defeat for the U.S., as it allows Iran to retain enrichment rights and its proxy network while abandoning key American red lines on ballistic missiles.
Iran has successfully established a new, de facto control regime over the Strait of Hormuz, fundamentally altering freedom of navigation and regional security.
Military action by the U.S. and Israel, featuring unprecedented integration, has significantly degraded Iran's nuclear and missile manufacturing capabilities.
Gulf states, perceiving the U.S. as an unreliable partner, are actively hedging their relationships with powers like China and are poised for a massive investment in their own defense capabilities.
Saudi-Israeli normalization remains contingent on an 'irreversible path' to a Palestinian state, a position Saudi Arabia has held firm on.
March 2023
Cook references the China-brokered normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which he claims Iran subsequently violated by continuing to arm the Houthis and advance its nuclear program.
Post-October 7th, 2023
According to Cook, Saudi Arabia advised Israel to ensure its military response in Gaza was 'relatively short and devastating' to preserve the possibility of future normalization.
Pre-Conflict Period
Cook dismisses reports, often attributed to the Omani foreign minister, that the U.S. and Iran were close to a diplomatic agreement before the war, calling them 'total nonsense'.
Recent Conflict (Beginning Feb 28th)
Describes an active conflict involving unprecedented military integration between the U.S. and Israel, which has significantly set back Iran's nuclear and missile manufacturing capabilities.
May 2026
Cook's analysis focuses on Iran's newly established control over the Strait of Hormuz and his assessment that the Israeli prime minister has concluded Israel must act alone against Iran.
June 2026
Cook offers a critical assessment of a new U.S.-Iran deal, claiming it heavily favors Iran by allowing uranium enrichment and oil exports while not dismantling its proxy forces.
▶Iran's Strategic Ascendancy and Regional DominanceMay 2026
Cook's analysis focuses on Iran's multi-pronged strategy to alter the regional balance of power. This includes its unwavering pursuit of a nuclear program, establishing control over the Strait of Hormuz, and leveraging proxy forces, all of which he argues have been advanced despite recent military setbacks.
Investors should price in a higher long-term risk premium for assets linked to Gulf energy exports and maritime trade, as Cook's analysis suggests Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is a new, persistent reality.
▶The Failure of Diplomacy and Rise of Military RealismMay 2026
Cook expresses deep skepticism about diplomatic overtures with Iran, labeling reports of pre-war deals as 'total nonsense' and characterizing the new 2026 agreement as a capitulation. He instead emphasizes the tangible impact of U.S.-Israeli military action in degrading Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities.
Analysts should prioritize monitoring military and intelligence developments over diplomatic statements, as Cook's perspective suggests the true state of the conflict is defined by capabilities and on-the-ground action, not negotiated terms.
▶Shifting Alliances in a Post-American Middle East
A core theme is the realignment of regional partnerships in response to a perceived U.S. withdrawal. Cook details how Gulf states are hedging with China, the UAE and Israel are deepening ties based on a shared threat, and an unprecedented level of U.S.-Israeli military integration has emerged from the conflict.
The diversification of alliances creates opportunities in the defense sectors of Gulf nations and Israel, as countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are predicted to make massive investments in hardening their own defenses.
▶Great Power Competition via Regional ProxiesMay 2026
Cook frames recent events within the context of broader geopolitical competition. He details how Russia provides Iran with real-time satellite intelligence as 'payback' for U.S. support to Ukraine, while China pursues regional stability primarily to secure its energy and trade interests.
The Middle East serves as a critical theater for U.S., Chinese, and Russian competition, meaning regional conflicts are susceptible to external influences and escalations tied to unrelated global events.