Michael Batnick

Financial market commentator and analyst at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The stock market is experiencing a significant internal divergence, where headline indices mask severe weakness in a large number of individual stocks and sectors.

A major shift in market leadership is underway, with international stocks, small caps, and sectors like banking showing relative strength against formerly dominant US large-cap tech.

The projected growth of AI companies like OpenAI is historically unprecedented, representing a statistically extreme event with massive financial commitments that pose both immense opportunity and risk.

Major institutional investors are actively de-risking their portfolios in response to high asset prices and geopolitical uncertainty, a cautionary signal for the broader market.

Iconic, long-standing companies like Disney can experience prolonged periods of fundamental stagnation (e.g., no EPS growth in a decade) and significant stock underperformance across all timeframes.

Podcast consensus on Batnick

Points of consensus

▶Across multiple episodes, Batnick highlights a significant market dichotomy where major indices are near all-time highs while a large number of individual stocks and entire sectors experience severe drawdowns.

▶He consistently points to a broadening of the market and a shift in leadership, noting the reduced contribution of 'Mag 7' stocks, the outperformance of the Russell 2000, and the record-breaking outperformance of international stocks versus US stocks.Apr 2026

▶Batnick frequently uses data and analysis from third-party experts (e.g., Michael Mobison on OpenAI, Mark Rowan of Apollo on risk) to substantiate his points on market trends, corporate performance, and economic outlooks.

▶He repeatedly flags specific instances of underperformance by well-known mega-cap companies, such as Disney's decade-long stagnation in EPS and Microsoft's underperformance of the S&P 500 since late 2022.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Batnick presents a conflicting market sentiment, describing conditions that 'look like a bull market' (e.g., record ETF inflows, S&P 500 near highs) but 'feel like a crash' (e.g., 100% of software stocks in a 20%+ drawdown).Apr 2026

▶He highlights a divergence in asset performance, noting that year-to-date gold has risen significantly while Bitcoin has declined, challenging their correlated 'safe haven' or 'inflation hedge' narratives.

▶There is a contrast between the macroeconomic picture and corporate actions, where US real GDP is accelerating without job growth, while tech layoffs have trended down since early 2023, suggesting complex underlying forces.Apr 2026

▶Batnick points out the tension between extreme market concentration and recent broadening, noting that while NVIDIA's performance has been crucial for US market returns, for the first time since 2021 the 'Mag 7' contributed less than half of the S&P 500's gains.

Key themes

▶Market Dichotomy: Bull Market Facade, Bear Market Internals

Batnick consistently highlights the stark contrast between the strong performance of major market indexes like the S&P 500 and the significant weakness within the broader market. He points out that while the index is near all-time highs, a vast number of individual stocks and entire sectors, like software, are experiencing crash-like conditions with deep drawdowns.

This theme suggests that passive index investors may have a dramatically different and more positive experience than investors who are actively picking individual stocks, indicating a highly bifurcated and potentially fragile market structure.

▶The Unprecedented Economics of AIApr 2026

This theme centers on the staggering financial projections and costs associated with the AI boom, specifically focusing on OpenAI. Batnick cites expert analysis that OpenAI's forecasted sales growth is a 9.5 standard deviation event, a rate unseen in public companies for over 75 years, while also highlighting its massive financial obligations, such as owing Oracle $60 billion.

The extreme financial metrics surrounding AI leaders like OpenAI suggest a high-stakes environment where the potential for value creation is matched only by the potential for capital destruction, making it a critical area of focus and risk for investors.

▶Shifting Global Market LeadershipApr 2026

Batnick observes a significant rotation in market leadership away from previously dominant US tech stocks. He provides evidence such as the 'Mag 7' contributing less to S&P 500 gains, the outperformance of the Russell 2000 small-cap index, and the historic year-to-date outperformance of international stocks over US stocks.

This signals a potential end to a long cycle of US market dominance, suggesting that investors may need to reconsider geographic and sector allocations that have been successful for the past decade.

▶Heightened Risk and Institutional De-Risking

Batnick highlights a growing sense of caution among major institutional investors due to high asset prices, sticky rates, and geopolitical risk. He provides concrete examples of this 'risk reduction mode,' such as Apollo Global Management cutting its CLO exposure and private credit firm Blue Owl restricting investor withdrawals from a major fund.

The proactive de-risking by sophisticated financial players serves as a cautionary signal for the broader market, indicating that 'smart money' is preparing for increased volatility or a potential downturn.

Source episodes

Timeline

Since November 2022

Batnick notes a period of underperformance for Microsoft relative to the S&P 500, while also highlighting that the Russell 2000 has outperformed every S&P 500 sector since the market lows of that month.

Early 2023

Citing data from Benedict Evans, Batnick points out that tech layoffs began trending down, suggesting the trend was driven more by macro forces than the launch of ChatGPT.

First Half 2025

Batnick reports that Man Group experienced $1.5 billion in net outflows from its absolute return strategies, attributing it to a difficult environment for trend-following.

December 2025

He highlights a record-breaking month for inflows into equity ETFs, indicating strong retail and institutional demand for stocks.

Year-to-Date (context suggests late 2025/early 2026)

Batnick's commentary focuses heavily on year-to-date performance metrics showing major market shifts, including the outperformance of international stocks, bank stocks, and gold, alongside the diminished contribution of 'Mag 7' stocks to S&P 500 gains.

2026 Outlook

His discourse shifts to forward-looking Wall Street predictions, citing S&P 500 price targets and sector-specific earnings growth forecasts for the year 2026.

Suggested prompts

How does Michael Batnick use data on market internals, such as the number of stocks in drawdowns, to challenge the narrative presented by major index performance? &nearr;What are the primary risks Batnick identifies in the current market, citing specific examples from firms like Apollo, Blue Owl, and Man Group? &nearr;Based on Batnick's commentary, is the era of US tech stock dominance waning, and what evidence does he present to support the case for international equities and small caps? &nearr;How does Batnick frame the financial implications of the AI boom, particularly concerning OpenAI's unprecedented growth projections versus its massive capital expenditures and the high hallucination rates of AI models? &nearr;

Key concepts

Market Performance & Indices 3 ep Individual Stock Performance 3 ep Artificial Intelligence (AI) 2 ep Risk Management & De-risking 2 ep International vs. US Equities 2 ep Corporate Earnings 2 ep ETFs & Mutual Funds 2 ep Economic Indicators 2 ep Tax Policy 1 ep Private Credit 1 ep

Notable quotes

“last week, we saw 115 stocks that fell 7% or more in a single session. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was 1.5% away from an all-time high.”

Michael Batnick · Looks Like a Bull Market, Feels Like a Crash | TCAF 230

“the data revealed that no public company has grown this fast for five years in the last three quarters of a century. ... This forecast implies a roughly 9.5 standard deviation outcome for OpenAI”

Michael Batnick · Looks Like a Bull Market, Feels Like a Crash | TCAF 230

“Private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail debt fund, backtracking from an earlier plan to reopen to redemptions this quarter.”

Michael Batnick · Looks Like a Bull Market, Feels Like a Crash | TCAF 230

“year to date, we have never seen a wider spread of international stocks outperforming U.S. by 8.3% through, I guess, yesterday. This has never happened.”

Michael Batnick · Looks Like a Bull Market, Feels Like a Crash | TCAF 230

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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