Despite a recent rally, large speculators' net long position in coffee is only about 15% of open interest, well below the typical historical peak of around 40%.

Expectations for a record coffee crop are being challenged by severe weather and harvest delays in Brazil, renewed El Niño concerns, and thin global inventories.

The initial stage of the recent coffee rally was primarily driven by short covering rather than new long positions, as indicated by rising prices on declining open interest.