Seth Borko, mentioned 21 times across podcast episodes and expert conversations analyzed by Sonic.

Seth Borko

Travel industry analyst and researcher for Skift Research.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The global travel industry's growth is decelerating and rebalancing, with future expansion being driven by Asia and the Middle East, not North America.

The United States is facing a serious and sustained decline in international inbound tourism, primarily driven by negative perceptions of its political climate.

Geopolitical instability is no longer a fringe issue but a central factor actively dictating travel flows, from airline routes over Russia to tourism viability in the Caribbean.

Consumer demand for travel remains exceptionally high, but this demand is fluid; travelers will readily substitute destinations (e.g., avoiding the U.S.) rather than cancel plans altogether.

Brand loyalty in the travel sector is fragile, with a vast majority of consumers willing to switch allegiance for programs that better align with their personal preferences, creating opportunities for market disruption.

Timeline

Circa 2019

Borko notes that the long-term trend of increasing global visa-free mobility plateaued around this time, marking a shift in global travel accessibility.

2024

Cites data from the Skift Travel Health Index showing the global travel industry grew by approximately 8%.

2025

Reports that industry growth decelerated significantly to 2%, and that international inbound tourism to the U.S. experienced seven consecutive months of year-over-year declines.

December 2025 (implied)

Predicts that the seven-month streak of declines in U.S. international inbound tourism will end in December.

2026

Forecasts 5% revenue growth for the global travel industry, with growth being led by markets in Asia and the Middle East rather than North America.

Podcast consensus on Borko

Points of consensus

▶Both source appearances emphasize that geopolitical factors, such as sanctions against Russia, tensions around Venezuela, and the political climate in the U.S., are having a direct and significant impact on global travel patterns and airline operations.Apr 2026

▶Borko consistently highlights a multi-month, year-over-year decline in international inbound tourism to the United States, citing the political climate as the primary deterrent for potential visitors.Apr 2026

▶Across both podcasts, Borko's analysis points to a fundamental shift in the travel industry's growth, with a marked deceleration from post-pandemic highs and a geographic pivot towards faster-growing markets in Asia and the Middle East.Apr 2026

▶He consistently presents data showing that while consumer desire to spend on travel is the highest among discretionary categories, this demand is being redirected by external factors, leading to a 'replacement of demand' rather than its destruction.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Borko's own organization, Skift Research, presents a base case forecast of 5% revenue growth for the travel industry in 2026, which is notably more conservative than the 7% growth consensus from Wall Street analysts that he also cites.Apr 2026

▶He highlights the immense power of established loyalty programs like Marriott Bonvoy, yet simultaneously presents survey data indicating extreme customer disloyalty, with 83% of U.S. travelers willing to switch programs for better-matched preferences.Apr 2026

▶Borko points to strong consumer spending intentions for 2026, with a majority of travelers in key markets expecting to spend more, while also noting that overall industry growth decelerated sharply from 8% in 2024 to just 2% in 2025, suggesting a potential conflict between sentiment and reality.Apr 2026

▶He discusses the long-term global trend of increasing visa-free mobility but notes that this trend has 'plateaued' since 2019, presenting a counter-narrative to the idea of an ever-more accessible world.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶Geopolitical Headwinds Reshaping Global TravelApr 2026

Borko's analysis consistently focuses on how geopolitical realities are actively reshaping travel flows. This includes sanctions forcing airlines like Finnair to reroute, regional instability impacting tourism in places like Aruba, and safety concerns deterring Chinese travelers from leaving Asia.

Investors should de-risk portfolios from companies overly dependent on specific international travel corridors, particularly U.S. inbound tourism, and look for opportunities in regions less affected by current geopolitical friction.

▶The U.S. Inbound Tourism CrisisApr 2026

A major theme is the sustained, multi-month decline in international tourism to the United States. Borko identifies the 'political climate' as the number one reason cited by travelers for avoiding the U.S., suggesting a significant brand and perception problem for the country's travel sector.

This trend creates a significant market opportunity for competing destinations in Canada, Mexico, and Europe to capture the 'replacement demand' from international travelers who are choosing to go elsewhere instead of the U.S.

▶The Shifting Epicenter of Travel GrowthApr 2026

Borko presents a data-driven narrative of decelerating growth in established markets like North America, contrasted with a forecast of much faster expansion in Asia and the Middle East. This shift is supported by both economic projections and consumer spending intentions, particularly from Indian travelers.

Analysts should adjust their growth models to reflect this geographic rebalancing, potentially downgrading expectations for U.S.-centric travel companies while upgrading those with strong footholds in Asian and Middle Eastern markets.

▶The Consumer Loyalty ParadoxApr 2026

Borko explores the tension between the travel industry's reliance on loyalty programs and modern consumer behavior. While travelers rank travel as a top spending priority, an overwhelming majority (83% of U.S. travelers) express a willingness to abandon their current loyalty programs for a better alternative, indicating that loyalty is highly conditional.

The high propensity to switch suggests that loyalty is a weak moat; companies investing in flexible, experience-driven programs that match traveler preferences, like Ennismore's 'Dis-loyalty' concept, may be better positioned to capture market share.

Source episodes

Suggested prompts

How does Seth Borko reconcile the high consumer intent to spend on travel with the significant geopolitical and economic headwinds he identifies for 2026? &nearr;What are the primary drivers behind the divergence in 2026 travel growth forecasts between Skift Research (5%) and Wall Street (7%) as presented by Borko? &nearr;Beyond the political climate, what secondary factors does Borko's analysis suggest are contributing to the decline in U.S. inbound international tourism? &nearr;Based on Borko's claim that 83% of travelers would switch loyalty programs, what specific strategies does he imply would be most effective for brands to retain customers? &nearr;

Key concepts

Geopolitics 2 ep US Tourism Market 2 ep Travel Industry Growth Forecasts 1 ep Consumer Spending & Intentions 1 ep Airline Industry 2 ep Hotel Loyalty Programs 1 ep Regional Travel Trends (Asia & Middle East) 1 ep Visa Mobility 1 ep Travel Technology 1 ep

Notable quotes

“international tourists do not want to come to the united states and you know political climate is the number one reason why”

Seth · Skift Research’s 2026 Travel Outlook: Growth, Resilience, and the Geopolitical Reality

“this trend is not about a destruction of demand. It's about a replacement of demand.”

Seth Borko · Skift Megatrends 2026: What’s Next for Travel, Loyalty, and Luxury

“It turns out his plan was he's building the engine, but he's going to turn it into a gas turbine first and use the engine as a turbine to power AI data centers.”

Seth Borko · Skift Megatrends 2026: What’s Next for Travel, Loyalty, and Luxury

“And yet we found 83% of US travelers would switch their hotel loyalty program to another one if it better matched their preferences.”

Seth Borko · Skift Megatrends 2026: What’s Next for Travel, Loyalty, and Luxury

Report last updated: Jul 28, 2026

Create a free account to see Seth Borko's full intelligence report - every claim, the relationship network, and AI Q&A across all sources. No card needed.

Get started free

Back to Entities Intelligence Report