Benedict Kammel

Expert analyst on the energy and airline industries.

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Key positions and views

The central problem plaguing the airline industry is the exorbitant cost of jet fuel, not a lack of availability.

Airlines will unequivocally pass a significant portion, potentially up to 100%, of increased fuel costs on to consumers in the form of higher ticket prices.

The financial resilience to the fuel crisis is highly stratified; the three largest US carriers are well-positioned to withstand the shock, while mid-market carriers are severely impacted.

Geopolitical resolutions, such as an end to the war in Iran, will not lead to an immediate decrease in fuel prices due to systemic supply chain lags and damaged infrastructure.

The current crisis is forcing airlines to make tough operational decisions, including cutting routes and bases, while simultaneously renewing industry interest in securing long-term supplies of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

Podcast consensus on Kammel

Points of consensus

▶Kammel consistently identifies the high cost of jet fuel, rather than its availability, as the central crisis facing the airline industry.May 2026

▶He repeatedly states that the primary airline strategy for survival is passing these increased fuel costs directly to consumers through higher ticket prices.May 2026

▶He emphasizes that the financial impact of the fuel crisis is uneven, with large legacy carriers being much better positioned to absorb costs than more vulnerable mid-market and smaller airlines.May 2026

▶Kammel observes a clear trend of airlines making immediate, defensive operational adjustments, such as reducing capacity on non-critical routes and shutting down inefficient bases.May 2026

Points of debate

▶Kammel highlights a tension between the stated optimism of industry leaders like Emirates' Tim Clark about adapting to crises and the concrete actions of other airlines suspending their financial outlooks due to market uncertainty.May 2026

▶He outlines a key uncertainty regarding airlines' pricing power, noting their belief they can pass on costs while also identifying the post-summer 'shoulder season' as the true, and as-yet-unknown, test of this power.May 2026

▶He contrasts the different approaches to government engagement, with European airlines lobbying for tax relief versus some smaller US airlines asking for potential financial assistance, indicating no unified industry position on government aid.May 2026

▶Kammel points to a conflict between short-term survival tactics, like cutting routes, and the long-term strategic necessity of investing in alternatives like Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which the crisis has renewed interest in.May 2026

Key themes

▶Airline Financial Duress and Cost StructureMay 2026

Airlines are facing a severe financial crisis driven by the rising cost of jet fuel, which can constitute up to 30% of their operating costs. This has led to dire financial projections, such as American Airlines expecting an additional $4 billion in fuel costs, and has forced some carriers to suspend their financial outlooks for the year.

Investors should closely scrutinize airline balance sheets and hedging strategies, as mid-market carriers like JetBlue and Spirit are identified as being significantly more vulnerable to bankruptcy risk than the larger, more financially stable legacy airlines.

▶The Consumer Cost BurdenMay 2026

The airline industry's primary response to the fuel crisis is to transfer the cost burden to passengers. Major airlines have explicitly stated their intention to pass on 30% to 100% of increased fuel costs through higher ticket prices, a strategy bolstered by a post-COVID trend of travelers upgrading to premium seats.

Analysts should monitor consumer demand elasticity, as the industry's ability to maintain these high fares during the traditionally weaker post-summer 'shoulder season' will be the definitive test of its pricing power and profitability.

▶Operational Adjustments and Strategic RetreatMay 2026

Airlines are actively making operational changes to mitigate costs and risks. These adjustments include strategically reducing capacity by cutting non-mission-critical routes, shutting down cost-inefficient bases like Ryanair has done, and even considering halting flights to markets with acute fuel shortages, such as Asia.

These strategic retreats, while necessary for short-term survival, may have long-term consequences for market share and network connectivity, creating opportunities for more resilient competitors.

▶Government Engagement and Regional DivergenceMay 2026

The crisis has prompted varied interactions with governments. In Europe, airlines have lobbied for tax relief but have avoided asking for direct bailouts. In the US, smaller carriers like Frontier are asking for potential financial assistance, while past ideas like a government takeover of Spirit Airlines faced significant opposition.

The nature and extent of government support, whether through tax policy or direct aid, could become a critical factor influencing the competitive landscape and determining which airlines survive in different global regions.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Post-February 28th

Kammel notes that increased market uncertainty since this date prompted some airlines to suspend their financial outlooks for the year, while others revised their forecasts downward.

Recent Earnings Season

According to Kammel, major airlines like United, Delta, and American reported earnings with a unified theme: the necessity of passing rising costs on to consumers. American Airlines specifically projected a $4 billion annual increase in fuel costs.

Current Period

Kammel describes the present situation as one where airlines are actively implementing cost-mitigation strategies, including capacity reductions, new fees, and considering flight halts to Asia, with the core problem being fuel cost, not availability.

Near Future (Post-Summer)

Kammel identifies the upcoming post-summer 'shoulder season' as the critical test period that will determine if airlines can successfully maintain higher fares amid weaker travel demand.

Suggested prompts

How sustainable is the airline strategy of passing 100% of fuel cost increases to consumers, particularly if macroeconomic conditions weaken and travel demand falls? &nearr;What are the key financial and operational differences that make mid-market carriers like JetBlue and Spirit more vulnerable to the fuel crisis than legacy carriers like United and Delta? &nearr;To what extent will the current crisis accelerate the airline industry's transition to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), and what are the primary supply chain and cost obstacles to its widespread adoption? &nearr;Based on the differing approaches of US and European airlines to government support, what long-term competitive advantages or disadvantages might arise from these divergent policy choices? &nearr;

Key concepts

Jet Fuel Costs 1 ep Airline Financials 1 ep Consumer Pricing Power 1 ep Airline Operations 1 ep Government Policy 1 ep Market Uncertainty 1 ep Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) 1 ep Regional Fuel Shortages 1 ep

Notable quotes

“So far, the big problem for airlines is not so much the availability of jet fuel, but it's the cost of that that has really created such a massive headache for the airlines.”

Benedict Kammel · The Jet Fuel Crunch Arriving Just in Time for Your Summer Vacation | Big Take

“We heard from American Airlines that they expected by the end of the year to have additional fuel costs of $4 billion.”

Benedict Kammel · The Jet Fuel Crunch Arriving Just in Time for Your Summer Vacation | Big Take

“we think we can push more of that extra cost through to the consumer, 30, 40, 50, in some cases 100 percent, and that means higher ticket prices for everybody.”

Benedict Kammel · The Jet Fuel Crunch Arriving Just in Time for Your Summer Vacation | Big Take

“even if the war were to end tomorrow, the price of oil and therefore the price of fuel will not come down instantly. So that'll take time to then feed itself into the system again.”

Benedict Kammel · The Jet Fuel Crunch Arriving Just in Time for Your Summer Vacation | Big Take

Report last updated: May 5, 2026

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