Key positions and views

The United States is in a 'second Cold War' with China, which necessitates a national strategy focused on re-industrialization, securing critical mineral supply chains, and fostering a robust domestic defense-tech ecosystem.

The structure of modern technology markets is heavily shaped by specific, catalytic government policies like the JOBS Act (extending private company lifecycles) and the Durbin Amendment (creating the FinTech industry).

Late-stage private technology companies have adopted regular tender offers as a necessary mechanism to provide employees with liquidity, particularly to cover tax liabilities arising from RSU vesting.

The defense technology market is a 'winner-take-most' environment where value will concentrate in a few dominant companies, and the sector is currently 'overrated' by venture capital investors who may underestimate the difficulty of selling to the government.

The West (US, Canada, Australia) has the raw materials for a secure critical mineral supply chain, but overcoming China's market manipulation requires government intervention through offtake agreements and price supports to create viable domestic pricing.

Podcast consensus on Garrett

Points of consensus

▶Garrett consistently argues that specific US government legislation and policy decisions are fundamental, often underappreciated, drivers of market structure and innovation, citing the JOBS Act's impact on private market longevity and the Durbin Amendment's role in creating the FinTech industry.Apr 2026

▶Across both appearances, he emphasizes that the US is in a 'second Cold War,' a geopolitical reality that necessitates a strategic focus on re-industrialization, securing critical supply chains away from China, and boosting defense capabilities in both the US and Europe.

▶He repeatedly points to a significant trend of Western re-armament and industrial base expansion, noting that European governments are now 'very serious' about modernizing their militaries and meeting or exceeding NATO spending targets.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Garrett describes the defense tech sector as 'overrated' by venture investors and a 'winner-take-most' market, yet simultaneously highlights the massive new opportunities being created by initiatives like the DIU and the DoD's Replicator Initiative, presenting a nuanced view on market saturation versus opportunity.Apr 2026

▶He details how the JOBS Act enabled a decade-plus trend of companies staying private, yet also predicts an imminent 'wave' of IPOs, suggesting a potential tension between the established structural reasons to stay private and current market pressures to go public.Apr 2026

▶He champions the capital efficiency of companies like SpaceX, which raised relatively little primary capital, while also noting that the VC and PE industries are sitting on trillions in 'dry powder,' implying a potential market inefficiency or disconnect between capital availability and its most productive use.Apr 2026

▶He asserts that the primary challenge for US mining is 'unworkable pricing dynamics' manipulated by China, not lack of capital, but also proposes capital-intensive government solutions like price subsidies and offtake agreements, suggesting capital is a necessary, if not sufficient, part of the solution.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Maturation of Private MarketsApr 2026

Garrett details a fundamental shift in tech company lifecycles, where firms now stay private for over 12 years on average, up from 3-4 years. This change, accelerated by the 2012 JOBS Act, has created a new set of challenges and solutions around employee liquidity, leading to the rise of regular, large-scale tender offers at companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and Databricks.

For investors, this theme indicates that a significant portion of value creation now occurs in the private markets, making access to late-stage secondaries and specialized liquidity funds a critical strategy for capturing growth that was previously only available post-IPO.

▶Geopolitical Imperatives Driving Re-industrialization

Garrett frames the current era as a 'second Cold War,' primarily with China. This competition is forcing a strategic re-evaluation of Western industrial capacity, from China's dominance in critical minerals (controlling 90% of refining) to the need for European nations to re-arm and modernize their militaries.

This geopolitical lens suggests that investment theses heavily weighted towards national security, domestic manufacturing, and supply chain resilience (e.g., mining, defense tech, robotics) are likely to benefit from strong, long-term policy tailwinds.

▶Policy as a Market CatalystApr 2026

Garrett consistently argues that specific government actions are direct catalysts for creating or reshaping entire industries. He cites Palantir's litigation forcing the government to consider commercial software, the Durbin Amendment enabling the FinTech interchange model, and the JOBS Act extending the private runway for tech companies.

This underscores the necessity for founders and investors in government-adjacent sectors to possess deep policy expertise, as legislative and regulatory changes represent both existential threats and generational market-creation opportunities.

▶The 'Winner-Take-Most' Dynamics of Defense TechApr 2026

While acknowledging the massive total addressable market in defense, Garrett believes value will accrue to a very small number of companies, unlike the broader enterprise software market. He views the sector as currently 'overrated' by venture capital, suggesting that navigating complex procurement and achieving scale is far more difficult than many investors appreciate.

Analysts should be skeptical of broad-based investment in the defense tech sector and instead focus on identifying the few companies with a clear path to becoming prime contractors or systems of record, as the power law distribution of returns is expected to be extremely steep.

Source episodes

Timeline

Discourse in 'SpaceX, Stripe, Ramp, Anduril...'

Garrett's commentary focuses heavily on the mechanics and history of the late-stage private markets. He explains the structural reasons companies stay private (JOBS Act, long-term R&D), the resulting employee liquidity problem (RSU tax bills), and the solutions that have emerged (regular tender offers).

Discourse in 'Winning the AI Race & Reindustrialization...'

The focus of Garrett's discourse broadens to the macro-geopolitical landscape. He connects the dots between the 'second Cold War,' China's strategic control of critical minerals, and the imperative for the West to re-arm and re-shore its industrial base, highlighting specific companies like Applied Intuition as key players in this competition.

Suggested prompts

How does Garrett's 'winner-take-most' thesis for defense tech square with government initiatives like the DIU and Replicator, which are designed to broaden the defense industrial base? &nearr;Garrett identifies policy as a key driver of tech markets. What future legislative changes on the horizon could create the next 'Durbin Amendment' or 'JOBS Act' moment for an emerging sector? &nearr;Given China's 90% control of mineral refining, what are the specific economic and execution risks of the US government's proposed strategy of using offtake agreements and price subsidies to build a domestic alternative? &nearr;To what extent is the capital efficiency model of SpaceX, as described by Garrett, replicable for other hardware-intensive companies, or is it a unique result of SpaceX's business model and market position? &nearr;

Key concepts

Private Markets & Liquidity 2 ep Defense Tech 2 ep US Legislation & Policy 2 ep Geopolitics & China 2 ep SpaceX 1 ep Critical Minerals 1 ep European Defense 2 ep Tender Offers & RSUs 1 ep FinTech 2 ep Applied Intuition 1 ep

Notable quotes

“it's not like enterprise software where there's going to be hundreds of great companies that go after a multi-trillion dollar TAM. In defense tech, multi-trillion dollar TAM, but I think it's gonna be a much smaller number of companies where all the value accrues.”

Christian Garrett · SpaceX, Stripe, Ramp, Anduril: Navigating Liquidity in Private Markets

“companies used to go public, uh, in three, three to four years, um, you know, back, uh, just in the two thousands. And that has progressively trended towards seven, 10, I think now on average companies stay private, you know, 12 plus years.”

Christian Garrett · SpaceX, Stripe, Ramp, Anduril: Navigating Liquidity in Private Markets

“The broader EU, the European governments, they are very serious about re-arming, scaling up their industrial base, and modernizing their militaries.”

Christian Garrett · Winning the AI Race & Reindustrialization | Christian Garrett, 137 Ventures

“And that's why you see, you know, like 90 percent of all refining is done in China. Right. And about 70 percent plus or minus of the mining of critical minerals and earth elements is done in China.”

Christian Garrett · Winning the AI Race & Reindustrialization | Christian Garrett, 137 Ventures

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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