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Adobe

ADBE · Software · Business

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Podcasts

Episodes

Podcast consensus

Points of consensus

▶Adobe's attempted acquisition of Figma was terminated after a 16-month process due to regulatory opposition.Feb–Apr 2026

▶As a consequence of the failed acquisition, Adobe was required to pay Figma a $1 billion breakup fee.Feb–Apr 2026

▶Adobe's stock has experienced a significant decline, with various reports citing year-to-date drops of 25-30% and a 35% decline over the last year.Apr 2026

▶Multiple analysts view Artificial Intelligence as a significant disruptive threat to Adobe's core business and established content creation workflows.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶There is disagreement on Adobe's ability to withstand AI disruption; some view the company as a resilient, multi-decade survivor of technological shifts, while others believe it faces a high risk of being outpaced by new AI-native workflows.Mar–Apr 2026

▶Market outlook for Adobe's stock is contested. Scott Galloway predicts strong future returns, believing the market has overreacted to AI threats, whereas significant reported stock declines and concerns about AI replacing creative jobs suggest a more bearish perspective.Apr 2026

▶Adobe's competitive standing is debated. The company sunsetted its competing product, Adobe XD, after it failed to gain traction against Figma, and one report shows a steep decline in Adobe tool usage among a specific customer cohort. However, it is also cited alongside Microsoft and Intuit as a model of a durable, long-lasting technology company.Feb–Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Failed Figma Acquisition and its AftermathFeb–Apr 2026

Adobe's attempt to acquire Figma for $20 billion was a major strategic move that ultimately failed after a 16-month regulatory battle. The termination resulted in a $1 billion breakup fee paid to Figma and coincided with Adobe sunsetting its competing product, Adobe XD, which had failed to gain traction.

The failure of this landmark deal signals heightened regulatory scrutiny on big tech M&A and forces Adobe to confront its competitive challenges in the design space organically, a task made more difficult by Figma's post-deal momentum.

▶The Specter of AI DisruptionApr 2026

A significant portion of the discourse centers on the threat AI poses to Adobe's business. Analysts speculate that AI could replace the work of graphic designers, reducing seat counts, and create entirely new content creation workflows, forcing Adobe to play catch-up against more nimble AI-native companies.

While Adobe is seen by some as a resilient company that has survived past tech shifts, the speed of AI development presents an unprecedented challenge to its long-standing dominance in creative software, making its AI strategy a critical factor for future growth.

▶Financial Performance and Market UncertaintyApr 2026

Adobe has faced considerable market headwinds, reflected in significant stock price declines of 25-35% over the past year. This underperformance was concurrent with the resignation of its CEO, Shantanu Narayen, which occurred despite an earnings beat, indicating deep investor concern.

The combination of a falling stock price and a leadership change during a period of intense technological disruption suggests the market is pricing in significant risk and uncertainty about Adobe's future trajectory.

▶Competitive Pressures and Market PositionApr 2026

Adobe's competitive position is under pressure, not only from its failure to acquire Figma but also from potential customer churn. One survey indicated a dramatic drop in Adobe tool usage (from 60% to 18%) among a cohort of customers in just six months, highlighting a potential erosion of its ecosystem's stickiness.

This data suggests that Adobe's moat may not be as deep as previously thought, and competitors are successfully chipping away at its user base, a trend that could accelerate with the rise of new AI-powered creative tools.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Mar 2026

1 bullish(1 claim)

Mike Cannon-Brookes believes the key to building a multi-decade technology compa...

Apr 2026

4 bullish, 5 bearish, 6 neutral(15 claims)

The proposed acquisition of Figma by Adobe included a $1 billion breakup fee.

Changes over time

Historical Context

Adobe is established as a multi-decade technology company, cited as an example of a firm that can survive technological disruptions. Its growth to $10 billion in revenue took approximately 20 years.

Pre-Acquisition Period

Adobe's competing design product, Adobe XD, is placed into "sunset mode" after failing to gain sufficient market traction against its primary competitor, Figma.

16-Month Period

Adobe offers to acquire Figma for $20 billion. Over the subsequent 16 months, the deal faces intense regulatory opposition, and the perceived probability of it closing drops from 95% to 5%.

Deal Termination

The acquisition is officially terminated. Adobe pays Figma a contractually obligated $1 billion breakup fee.

Recent Period

Following the deal's collapse, Adobe's CEO Shantanu Narayen announces his resignation. The company's stock experiences a significant decline, down as much as 35% over the last year, amid growing discourse about the disruptive threat of AI to its business model.

Suggested prompts

How is Adobe adapting its product roadmap to counter the threat from generative AI and new content creation workflows? &nearr;What are the long-term strategic implications of the failed Figma acquisition for Adobe's dominance in the design software market? &nearr;Given the significant stock decline and CEO resignation, what is the outlook for Adobe's leadership and corporate stability? &nearr;To what extent is the reported customer churn, such as the drop in usage among Higgsfield customers, indicative of a broader market trend away from Adobe's creative suite? &nearr;

Key concepts

Figma Acquisition 5 ep AI Disruption 5 ep Stock Performance 3 ep Revenue & Growth 2 ep Regulatory Scrutiny 2 ep Breakup Fee 2 ep Competitive Landscape 2 ep Corporate Strategy 2 ep CEO Leadership 1 ep

Notable quotes

“The perceived probability of the Adobe acquisition of Figma closing successfully decreased from an initial 95% to approximately 5% by the end of the process.”

Dylan Field · Figma's Dylan Field on the Future of Design | Ep. 31

“when we surveyed our customers in July they told us that alongside our tools, 60% of them also used a tool from Adobe, either Photoshop or Premiere. When we did that survey in December, that number was down to 18%.”

Mahi · Lean & Mean: The New Business Model with Alex Konrad, Upstarts Media

“I think the Adobe AI risk over the next five years is pretty large. And that's actually probably should be figuring into that search.”

Rory · NVIDIA Predicts $1TRN in Revenue: Everything You Need to Know From GTC & Anduril Lands $20B Contract

“Adobe had to pay a billion of Figma for the breakup, right?”

Steven Sinofsky · Steven Sinofsky & Balaji Srinivasan on the Future of M&A, AI & Tech

Report last updated: Apr 20, 2026

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