Peter Scheer

Investment strategist and geopolitical analyst providing market commentary.

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Key positions and views

Advocates for a 'production for security' investment framework that prioritizes companies crucial to domestic supply chain resilience in energy, technology, and materials.

Argues that contemporary geopolitical conflicts are fundamentally different from past wars, as they actively accelerate deglobalization rather than reinforcing a U.S.-centric world order.

Believes the economic benefits of AI are undergoing a structural shift away from a handful of large model providers to a broader ecosystem of hardware manufacturers, data centers, and enterprise adopters.

Identifies China's significant dependence on Iranian oil as a critical strategic vulnerability that could be exploited in a geopolitical crisis.

Posits that the profitability of the space industry will be increasingly tied to national security, driven by U.S. military spending to counter the militarization of space by Russia and China.

Podcast consensus on Scheer

Points of consensus

▶Peter Scheer consistently argues for an investment thesis he calls 'production for security', which favors companies involved in domestic production and securing supply chains, specifically naming sectors like energy, nuclear, rare earth minerals, and technology (e.g., Intel).Apr 2026

▶Multiple claims indicate Scheer's view that the economic benefits of AI are broadening beyond a few large companies, shifting towards chip manufacturers, data centers, and the enterprises implementing the technology.Apr 2026

▶Scheer repeatedly uses historical data on U.S. stock market performance during major wars (WWII, Korean, Vietnam, Gulf, Iraq) to provide context for market behavior during geopolitical conflict.Apr 2026

▶He identifies specific, tangible escalation risks in the Middle East, focusing on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and potential Iranian targeting of Saudi oil infrastructure.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Scheer presents a nuanced view on conflict's market impact: while citing historical data showing strong U.S. market returns during past wars, he also claims current conflicts are uniquely accelerating a negative trend of deglobalization.Apr 2026

▶There is a tension in his analysis of market concentration. He notes the 'Magnificent Seven's' contribution to S&P 500 earnings growth has significantly decreased, while simultaneously highlighting that the benefits of AI are broadening out to a wider set of companies.Apr 2026

▶Scheer points to China's vulnerability due to its dependence on Iranian oil, but also notes that China has a significant buffer against disruptions with a stockpile of approximately one billion barrels of oil.Apr 2026

▶His analysis of the technology sector shows contrasting short-term and long-term effects: a new Anthropic AI model release caused a short-term decline in specific software and cybersecurity ETFs, yet he maintains the long-term trend is a broadening of AI benefits across the economy.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The 'Production for Security' Investment ThesisApr 2026

Scheer advocates for an investment strategy focused on the reshoring and domestic production of critical goods to secure national supply chains. This theme identifies specific sectors like semiconductors (Intel), energy (BP, Shell), nuclear power, and rare earth minerals as key beneficiaries of this deglobalization trend.

This thesis suggests investors should shift focus from global efficiency to national resilience, prioritizing companies integral to a country's strategic autonomy.

▶Geopolitical Flashpoints and Energy SecurityApr 2026

Scheer analyzes the market impact of geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. He highlights China's acute vulnerability to a blockade of Iranian oil and identifies specific escalation risks, such as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and potential strikes on Saudi pipelines.

For analysts, this underscores that modern geopolitical risk is not just about direct military conflict but about the weaponization of economic chokepoints and energy flows.

▶The Broadening of the AI EconomyApr 2026

This theme covers the evolution of the AI industry's value chain. Scheer argues that the primary economic benefits are expanding beyond a few large AI model providers to encompass the entire ecosystem, including chip manufacturers, data center operators, and the wider range of enterprises adopting the technology.

Investors should look beyond the most prominent AI names to find value in the enabling infrastructure and enterprise application layers of the technology stack.

▶Historical Market Performance in WartimeApr 2026

Scheer frequently references historical data on U.S. stock market performance during major 20th and 21st-century conflicts. He cites specific annualized returns during WWII (17%), the Korean War (18%), the Vietnam War (6%), the Gulf War (12%), and the Iraq War (10%) to contextualize current market behavior.

This historical perspective serves as a counter-narrative to the intuitive assumption that war is always and immediately detrimental to equity market performance.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

During 'Hormuz Blockade Spurs Market Jitters'

Scheer begins by analyzing the immediate geopolitical risks of a potential Hormuz blockade, focusing on China's energy vulnerability and specific conflict escalation scenarios in the Middle East.

During 'Hormuz Blockade Spurs Market Jitters'

He then contrasts the current situation with past conflicts, providing historical data on U.S. stock market performance during several major wars to argue that conflict does not automatically lead to poor returns.

During 'Hormuz Blockade Spurs Market Jitters'

Scheer introduces his core investment thesis, 'production for security,' arguing that the current era of deglobalization favors domestic producers in critical sectors like technology, energy, and materials.

During 'Hormuz Blockade Spurs Market Jitters'

He broadens his analysis to secular trends in technology, explaining how the AI economy is maturing and its benefits are spreading from model creators to the wider ecosystem of hardware and enterprise adopters.

Suggested prompts

How does Scheer reconcile his view of historical market resilience during wartime with his assertion that current conflicts are uniquely accelerating deglobalization? &nearr;What specific metrics or indicators would validate Scheer's 'production for security' thesis in the sectors he identifies, such as semiconductors and energy? &nearr;Beyond a stockpile, what secondary effects does Scheer foresee for the global economy if China's vulnerability to an Iranian oil blockade is exploited? &nearr;According to Scheer's analysis of the AI value chain, which types of companies outside of chipmakers and data centers are best positioned to capture value as the market broadens? &nearr;

Key concepts

Geopolitical Risk 6 ep Market History 5 ep Investment Theses 3 ep Artificial Intelligence 3 ep China 3 ep Energy Markets 2 ep Deglobalization 2 ep Space Industry 1 ep

Notable quotes

“An investment thesis called 'production for security' favors companies involved in the domestic production of goods that the U.S. needs to secure its supply chains.”

Peter Scheer · Hormuz Blockade Spurs Market Jitters | Bloomberg Surveillance

“China is highly vulnerable to a blockade of Iranian oil as it is heavily dependent on Iran for its energy supply.”

Peter Scheer · Hormuz Blockade Spurs Market Jitters | Bloomberg Surveillance

“Current geopolitical conflicts are accelerating the trend of deglobalization, in contrast to prior conflicts that shifted the world order in favor of the U.S.”

Peter Scheer · Hormuz Blockade Spurs Market Jitters | Bloomberg Surveillance

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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