According to Neil Dutta of Renmac, stagflation is detrimental to stocks, whereas an inflationary boom is not.

Despite discussions of a productivity boom, the US recently experienced negative real compensation growth for the year, suggesting gains are flowing to corporate margins instead of household living st...

Nominal US GDP is currently growing at approximately 6%, while nominal compensation, including wages and salaries, is growing below 4%.

Neal Dutta believes that if the Federal Reserve hikes rates due to supply-side inflation rather than strong demand, it would be a very negative outcome for the economy and capital markets.

Companies such as Vertiv, Eaton, Caterpillar, Cummins, and GE Vernova are trading like semiconductor stocks because their order books have become increasingly dependent on AI CapEx.

Generac's business is improving due to the data center buildout, as it supplies backup power systems for these facilities.

The current economic cycle is unusual because it is driven by non-residential business investment (CapEx), whereas historically residential investment is the leading indicator.

GE Vernova sells gas turbines to provide power for data centers.

Analysis by Neal Dutta shows that 15 non-tech S&P 500 companies, with a collective $2 trillion market cap, now have a daily return correlation of 0.5 or higher with the semiconductor ETF (SMH).

New home sales in the US so far this year are down approximately 6-7% compared to the same period last year.

The California Legislative Office reports that over half the growth in the state's income tax withholding is a function of vested RSUs from large tech companies.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book recently noted an uptick in mortgage, credit card, and agricultural delinquencies.

According to Neal Dutta, growth in total wages and salaries remains sluggish, and he has a concerned outlook for consumer spending.

A significant portion of US spending on AI leaks abroad in the form of imports from companies like SK Hynix, which counts against US GDP.

Neal Dutta questions whether the current AI trend constitutes a true productivity boom, as prices for information technology commodities like software and laptops are rising, in contrast to the deflat...

The housing construction sector is now competing for resources, such as land, with the buildout of AI data centers.

Neal Dutta noted that just before recent geopolitical events involving Iran, 10-year Treasury yields were at 3.93%.

The historical link between consumer sentiment and labor market views detached after 2021, as high inflation became a more dominant factor in sentiment.

The main effect of erratic US trade and tariff policy is that it freezes business investment, as companies are unwilling to commit capital amidst uncertainty.

Neil Dutta predicts the US unemployment rate could approach 5% at some point over the next 12 months.