The primary goal of U.S. trade policy is domestic re-industrialization, reducing the trade deficit, raising real wages, and growing the manufacturing sector's share of the economy.
The European Union is failing to meet its trade obligations to the U.S. under the Turnberry agreement and is now the country with the world's largest trade surplus with America.
The U.S. has successfully reduced its trade deficit with China by a third, or $130 billion, in the last year, and has secured multi-year, multi-billion dollar purchase agreements for agricultural goods and aircraft.
China poses a strategic threat by 'weaponizing' its control over critical minerals and implementing supply chain rules to punish companies aligning with the U.S., necessitating a coordinated response with allies like the G7.
A massive economic decoupling from China is not expected or the primary goal; rather, the strategy is to reduce reliance and diversify supply chains away from China.
Previous Year
The European Union surpassed China to become the entity with the largest trade surplus with the United States. During this period, China also fulfilled a prior agreement to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans.
Recent Past
Greer reports a significant shift in U.S.-China trade dynamics, with the U.S. trade deficit decreasing by $130 billion. Concurrently, China implemented new supply chain rules that could penalize companies moving operations closer to the U.S.
Current Negotiations
High-level discussions result in agreements for China to purchase 'hundreds' of Boeing aircraft and 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually for three years, with an additional 'double-digit billion' in annual agricultural purchases also expected. A bilateral meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi notably did not focus on chip export controls.
Present Day
Greer expresses that the EU is 'past due' on fulfilling its commitments from the Turnberry agreement. The U.S. is actively pursuing a plurilateral trade agreement on critical minerals with Europe and Japan to counter China's influence.
Next Several Weeks
The U.S. government is scheduled to release the findings of its ongoing Section 301 trade investigations and propose any resulting actions.
▶Assertive U.S. Trade Policy and Re-industrialization
Greer articulates a core U.S. trade strategy focused on tangible domestic outcomes. This includes re-industrializing the nation, aggressively reducing the trade deficit, increasing real wages for American workers, and expanding the manufacturing sector's overall share of the economy.
Investors should monitor metrics like the trade deficit and manufacturing output, as Greer's statements indicate these are key performance indicators for the current U.S. trade administration's policies.
▶Managing a Dualistic China Relationship
Greer's commentary reveals a two-pronged approach to China: securing large-scale transactional deals while confronting strategic threats. He highlights major successes like a $130 billion reduction in the trade deficit and massive agricultural and aircraft purchase agreements, while simultaneously raising alarms about China's punitive supply chain rules and its 'weaponization' of critical minerals.
Analysts must assess the U.S.-China relationship not as a single narrative but as a series of parallel, often contradictory, interactions where commercial opportunities coexist with significant geopolitical and supply chain risks.
▶Transatlantic Trade Friction and Unfulfilled CommitmentsMay 2026
Greer expresses significant frustration with the European Union, stating it is 'past due' on fulfilling its trade commitments under the Turnberry agreement. While he notes the EU agreed to remove industrial tariffs and offer regulatory flexibility, he also points out that the EU now holds the largest trade surplus with the U.S. and that pending legislation could undermine the deal.
The unresolved status of U.S.-EU trade commitments represents a source of potential volatility; businesses relying on the agreed-upon tariff removals and regulatory changes face uncertainty until the EU fully implements its side of the bargain.
▶The Geopolitics of Critical ResourcesMay 2026
Greer frames international trade in explicitly geopolitical terms, particularly concerning resources vital for national security and economic stability. He points to a G7 consensus on China 'weaponizing' critical minerals and highlights U.S. efforts to form a plurilateral trade agreement with Europe and Japan to counter this, linking trade directly to strategic resource control.
The focus on a critical minerals trade agreement signals a shift toward building strategic, values-aligned supply chains, creating opportunities for investment in mining and processing in partner nations outside of China.