Peter Orszag

CEO of Lazard, providing expert commentary on economics, geopolitics, and corporate strategy.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The U.S. is avoiding a fiscal crisis solely because of the dollar's reserve currency status; without it, the country's high deficit would have already triggered a crisis.

Supply shocks, such as tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, have long and delayed impacts on consumer prices, meaning current inflation may still reflect past events.

Geopolitical risk is no longer a secondary consideration but a primary driver of corporate decision-making, forcing CEOs globally to pause major investments amid uncertainty.

A major, underpriced risk in the AI sector is the legal uncertainty of whether Section 230 liability protections apply to companies that generate new content, rather than acting as passive conduits.

The U.S. government's tolerance of stablecoins is a strategic geopolitical move to ensure the global financial system's 'rails' continue to run through the United States, thereby projecting power.

Podcast consensus on Orszag

Points of consensus

▶Both source appearances emphasize that geopolitical risk has moved from a peripheral concern to a central driver of corporate decision-making and economic outcomes, evidenced by high demand for geopolitical advisory services.Apr 2026

▶Orszag consistently views tariffs and other supply-side shocks as having significant, long-lasting, and often delayed inflationary effects on consumer prices.May 2026

▶Across discussions, he analyzes U.S. fiscal and monetary policy through the lens of structural risks, repeatedly highlighting the nation's dependence on the dollar's reserve currency status to avoid a fiscal crisis.May 2026

▶He consistently frames U.S. trade policy, particularly regarding China, as a complex negotiation that will likely result in a settlement rather than the most extreme tariff scenarios currently being discussed.Apr–May 2026

Points of debate

▶Orszag presents a tension in U.S. trade policy, predicting a negotiated tariff settlement with China while simultaneously noting the administration's stated policy of escalating tariffs in response to retaliation.Apr–May 2026

▶He highlights the U.S. government's interest in maintaining the dollar's dominance via stablecoins, which contrasts with the actions of allies like France, who he claims are actively discouraging investment in the U.S.

▶There is a contrast in his view on AI: he is optimistic about its potential to increase Wall Street productivity but also identifies a foundational, underpriced legal risk regarding Section 230 that could destabilize the industry.May 2026

▶He argues that reducing U.S. global defense spending would be fiscally counterproductive due to increased borrowing costs, a view that presents a direct conflict between foreign policy retrenchment and fiscal health.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Primacy of Geopolitics in Economic AnalysisApr 2026

Orszag consistently argues that traditional economic models are insufficient without a deep understanding of geopolitical risks, from tariffs to regional conflicts. He cites the "off the charts" demand for Lazard's geopolitical advisory services as definitive proof of this paradigm shift in corporate strategy.

Investors can no longer treat geopolitical events as external shocks but must integrate them as core variables in risk assessment and capital allocation, as they directly impact everything from supply chains to borrowing costs.

▶The Lagged Effects of Supply ShocksMay 2026

A core tenet of Orszag's inflation analysis is that the full impact of supply-side disruptions is not immediate. He posits that recent goods inflation was driven by companies finally passing on tariff costs from months or years prior and predicts future price pressure from commodity disruptions will follow a similar delayed pattern.

Analysts should be wary of premature declarations of victory over inflation, as latent price pressures from past supply shocks can re-emerge unexpectedly, complicating monetary policy decisions.

▶The Fragile Foundation of U.S. Fiscal StabilityApr–May 2026

Orszag's analysis of the U.S. economy hinges on the dollar's reserve currency status, which he calls the primary factor preventing a fiscal crisis. He warns that given the country's 7-7.5% of GDP deficit, any erosion of this status would lead to a cascade of negative consequences, including significantly higher borrowing costs.

The long-term valuation of U.S. assets is critically dependent on the geopolitical and economic factors that underpin the dollar's global dominance, a variable that is often taken for granted in financial models.

▶Unpriced Risks in Emerging TechnologiesMay 2026

Beyond traditional economics, Orszag identifies significant, underappreciated risks in the tech sector. He specifically highlights the legal uncertainty surrounding Section 230's applicability to generative AI, which he believes could pose a major threat to AI companies' current business models by removing their liability shield.

Tech investors should look beyond financial metrics to assess foundational legal and regulatory risks, as these non-financial factors could trigger sharp revaluations in seemingly stable, high-growth sectors.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Apr 2026

1 bullish, 3 bearish, 7 neutral(11 claims)

Foreign companies are facing pressure from their own governments to refrain from...

May 2026

3 bullish, 3 bearish, 2 neutral(8 claims)

In January, Peter Orszag and Adam Pozen of the Peterson Institute made a contrar...

Changes over time

January (current year)

Alongside Adam Pozen of the Peterson Institute, Orszag made a contrarian prediction that U.S. inflation would reach 4% for the year.

Recent Discourse (Semafor)

Analysis focused on current inflation drivers, including the delayed pass-through of tariffs, the Fed's likely refusal to cut rates if inflation remains elevated, and emerging commodity price risks from the Middle East conflict.

Recent Discourse (Ezra Klein Show)

Discourse centered on the economic impact of proposed Trump administration tariffs, highlighting the chilling effect on global CEO investment decisions and predicting an eventual negotiated settlement with China.

Near Future (3-4 weeks from Semafor talk)

Predicts the onset of significant price pressure on commodities like jet fuel, aluminum, and helium as inventories depleted by the Middle East conflict run low.

Near Future (1 year from Ezra Klein talk)

Predicts that the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods will be negotiated to a level significantly lower than the extreme rates being publicly discussed.

Suggested prompts

How does Orszag's emphasis on the dollar's reserve status as the sole pillar of U.S. fiscal stability change the risk assessment for long-term U.S. debt? &nearr;Given Orszag's theory of lagged supply shocks, what specific indicators should be monitored to anticipate the next wave of inflation from recent geopolitical events? &nearr;What are the potential cascading effects on the tech market if Orszag's identified legal risk regarding Section 230 and AI materializes? &nearr;Orszag predicts a negotiated tariff settlement with China. What specific geopolitical or economic shifts would need to occur to make this outcome more likely than the current escalatory trajectory he also describes? &nearr;

Key concepts

Geopolitics 2 ep Tariffs and Trade Policy 2 ep US Fiscal Policy & Debt 2 ep Inflation 1 ep US Dollar Reserve Status 2 ep Corporate Investment & Decision-Making 2 ep Artificial Intelligence (AI) 1 ep Federal Reserve Policy 1 ep

Notable quotes

“What I would say is the thing that is saving the US fiscal trajectory is the reserve currency status of the dollar. Without that, we would likely already have had a fiscal crisis.”

Peter Orszag · MetLife CEO Michel Khalaf & Lazard CEO Peter Orszag at Semafor World Economy

“I created a geopolitical advisory team a couple of years ago. And the demand for that team is off the charts because you can't make a business decision today without taking these sorts of things into account”

Peter Orszag · Trump’s Tariffs, Market Panic and What Comes Next | The Ezra Klein Show

“I think we have not figured out the legal structure around the AI companies. And the arguments that they are making to protect themselves against IP infringement today... raises big questions about whether Section 230, which is supposed to protect passive conduits, should or should not apply to them.”

Peter Orszag · MetLife CEO Michel Khalaf & Lazard CEO Peter Orszag at Semafor World Economy

“i suspect that if you ask me to bet a year out the tariff on china is not going to be anywhere remotely like 125 or whatever it's going to land at now”

Peter Orszag · Trump’s Tariffs, Market Panic and What Comes Next | The Ezra Klein Show

Report last updated: May 10, 2026

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