Julian Gertz characterizes the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping as a "stalemate summit," occurring during a lull in a long-term competition.

Julian Gertz is concerned that political polarization in the United States challenges its ability to mount a sustained, long-term competitive strategy against China.

A significant part of China's current strategy is to influence Taiwan's domestic politics and demoralize its population ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Julian Gertz concludes that the argument that the U.S. war in Iran is a net positive for China is more compelling than the argument that it is a net negative.

Julian Gertz speculates that the People's Liberation Army feels insecure about its untested capabilities when compared to the advanced, AI-enabled systems demonstrated by the U.S. military in Iran.

Over the last 18 months, China has exerted an unprecedented degree of leverage over the United States through its control of critical minerals and the institution of a global export control regime.

President Trump has consistently viewed the U.S.-China rivalry as being primarily economic in nature, rather than focusing on security or human rights concerns.

According to John Bolton's book, President Trump indicated to Xi Jinping that he should proceed with building internment camps in Xinjiang.

Beijing has been actively pressing the Trump administration to curtail arms sales to Taiwan.

China has been unwilling to take significant action to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, contrary to the hopes of the Trump administration.

In response to new U.S. sanctions, China has deployed legal instruments that instruct Chinese entities not to comply with them.

The U.S. war in Iran has alienated international partners and significantly depleted U.S. military stockpiles.

President Xi Jinping seeks a period of stability in the U.S.-China relationship to buy time and strengthen China's national capabilities.

China's Minister of State Security, Chen Yi Xin, publicly assessed that the United States' democracy is mutating, its economy is decaying, and its global hegemony is crumbling.

China's strategy regarding U.S. policy on Taiwan is to use "salami slicing" tactics to gradually change the overall dynamic over time, rather than seeking a dramatic overnight shift.

A hypothetical pro-China assessment would note that the U.S. has moved strategic assets, including the THAAD missile defense system, out of Asia to support the war in Iran, impacting U.S. readiness.

Julian Gertz asserts that the AI company Anthropic currently possesses the world's best AI models.

China's use of economic leverage, including export controls, has placed the United States in a defensive strategic position.

President Trump is hoping to portray his upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping as a political win, especially given the lack of other positive international news for the United States.

A hypothetical negative assessment for China would argue that the U.S. war in Iran has shown the limitations of China's ability to protect its partners, such as Iran and Venezuela.