Tom Christensen predicts that the economic truce between the U.S. and China will break down in 2026 due to disagreements over national security issues such as Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.

In late November 2025, the United States reportedly intercepted a ship traveling from China to Iran that was carrying military-related technologies.

China believes it successfully used restrictions on agricultural purchases and rare earth exports to force the United States to agree to an economic truce in late October 2025.