Henry Ellenbogen

Founder of Durable Capital Partners and former portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizon Fund.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The vast majority of long-term wealth creation is driven by a tiny fraction (~1%) of public companies that compound at over 20% annually, and these companies typically begin their journey as small-caps.

Durable competitive advantage is built by creating a virtuous cycle of reinvesting operational cost savings into technological or physical infrastructure, as exemplified by Amazon's logistics network.

The public markets are structurally dominated by short-term thinking (80-90% of trading flow), which creates volatility that long-term, conviction-driven investors can exploit to buy great companies at attractive prices.

Artificial Intelligence is a platform shift as powerful as the internet, enabling dramatic efficiency gains and cost reductions that will fundamentally reshape industries and create new investment opportunities.

Investing in experienced 'Act II entrepreneurs'—founders who have previously built and scaled successful companies—provides a significant edge, as they possess the proven ability to navigate growth and complexity.

Podcast consensus on Ellenbogen

Points of consensus

▶Ellenbogen consistently argues that a very small percentage of companies, often starting as small-caps, are 'compounders' that drive the majority of long-term market returns.Apr 2026

▶He repeatedly emphasizes the strategic advantage of backing experienced 'Act II entrepreneurs,' such as the founders of Workday, who have previously built and scaled successful businesses.

▶Across multiple examples (Amazon, Domino's, Duolingo), Ellenbogen highlights how technological adoption—from e-commerce and mobile apps to AI—is a primary driver of durable competitive advantage and growth.

▶He maintains that public markets are dominated by short-term institutional flows, creating significant opportunities for long-term investors to acquire stakes in great companies during periods of volatility or strategic transition, as seen in his Netflix investment.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Ellenbogen's strategy champions high-conviction, concentrated bets on 'compounders,' a contrast to the conventional wisdom of broad diversification, as exemplified by the T. Rowe Price New Horizon Fund's performance being driven by only 20 stocks over 50 years.Apr 2026

▶He presents a tension between market efficiency and opportunity, noting that 80-90% of institutional flow is short-term and quantitative, yet believes long-term, fundamental analysis can still identify the 1% of stocks that generate massive outperformance.Apr 2026

▶His investment philosophy values qualitative factors like founder experience (Workday) and business systems (Danaher) as key drivers of success, which stands in contrast to purely quantitative or passive investment strategies that dominate market flows.Apr 2026

▶He acknowledges that even the best 'compounder' stocks experience severe drawdowns (averaging 50%), creating a conflict between the need for long-term patience and the behavioral challenges of enduring extreme volatility to realize gains.

Key themes

▶The 'Compounder' Thesis: Identifying the 1%

Ellenbogen's core investment philosophy revolves around identifying the tiny fraction of companies (~1% of the market) that can compound wealth at 20% or more annually over a decade. He notes these companies often start as small-caps and that their journey involves significant volatility, including average drawdowns of 50%.

This theme suggests that for Ellenbogen, the primary task of an investor is not to time the market or achieve broad diversification, but to perform the difficult work of identifying these rare, high-quality businesses and having the conviction to hold them through severe downturns.

▶Crossover Investing and Founder-Led GrowthApr 2026

Throughout his career, Ellenbogen has practiced a crossover strategy, investing in companies in both private and public markets. He has a stated preference for backing experienced 'Act II entrepreneurs'—founders who have already built and sold a successful company. His firm, Durable Capital, continues this by leading late-stage private rounds in companies like DoorDash, Affirm, and Toast, and holding them as major public positions.

This approach provides a significant informational advantage, allowing the firm to build deep conviction and relationships before an IPO, which is crucial for maintaining long-term positions despite public market volatility.

▶Technology as a Catalyst for Durable Advantage

Ellenbogen views technological shifts as the primary force creating and sustaining competitive moats. He cites Amazon's use of logistics cost advantages to fund its physical network, Domino's leveraging of a mobile app to build direct customer relationships, and the current impact of AI on efficiency at firms like Duolingo and Affirm.

For analysts, this indicates that evaluating a company's ability to not just adopt but weaponize new technology for process improvement and customer acquisition is central to identifying future 'compounders' in Ellenbogen's framework.

▶Exploiting Market MyopiaApr 2026

A recurring idea is the structural inefficiency of public markets, where an estimated 80-90% of trading flow is driven by short-term (1-3 month) horizons or quantitative signals. This creates opportunities for long-term investors to act when the market panics over strategic pivots, as exemplified by his firm's investment in Netflix during its difficult transition to streaming.

This suggests that Ellenbogen's strategy relies on market volatility and short-termism not as risks to be avoided, but as the primary sources of opportunity for acquiring stakes in exceptional businesses at attractive prices.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Career at T. Rowe Price

Managed the T. Rowe Price New Horizon Fund, described as the oldest and most successful small-cap growth fund in the U.S. During this time, he studied the fund's history, noting the outsized impact of holding stocks like Walmart, and made significant investments in future tech giants.

Early 2010s

As a portfolio manager, he made several key early-stage investments, including in Twitter at a $1 billion valuation and Workday in 2012 at a $2 billion valuation.

Netflix Transition Period

Co-led a pivotal private investment in public equity (PIPE) to recapitalize Netflix at a $4.5 billion valuation while the company was undergoing a painful and volatile strategic shift from DVDs to streaming.

Founding of Durable Capital

Founded Durable Capital Partners to implement his crossover investment strategy, allocating 10-15% of capital to private markets. The firm led the last private funding rounds for companies like DoorDash, Affirm, Toast, and Figma.

2023-Present

After a period of slower activity, Durable Capital has returned to a pace of about five new private investments per year, with a focus on the impact of AI on business efficiency and product development.

Suggested prompts

How does Ellenbogen's 'compounder' thesis adapt to a macroeconomic environment of higher interest rates compared to the ZIRP era he references? &nearr;What are the primary risks and benefits of Durable Capital's strategy of holding significant public positions in companies like DoorDash and Affirm, where it also led the final private rounds? &nearr;How does Ellenbogen reconcile his belief in human-led, long-term conviction with his observation that quantitative strategies paired with humans will win short-term alpha? &nearr;Analyze the key replicable elements and potential limitations of the 'Danaher Business System' as a model for creating long-term compounder stocks. &nearr;

Key concepts

Compounder Stocks 10 ep Crossover Investing (Private/Public) 8 ep AI & Technology Impact 7 ep Durable Capital Partners 6 ep T. Rowe Price New Horizon Fund 5 ep Market Structure & Short-Termism 3 ep Case Study: Netflix 2 ep Case Study: Amazon 2 ep Case Study: Danaher 3 ep Founder Quality ('Act II Entrepreneurs') 3 ep

Notable quotes

“And had the stake in Walmart not been sold, the stake in Walmart would have been greater than the sum total of everything that I was managing.”

Henry Ellenbogen · Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview

“somewhere between 80 and 90% of the institutional flow is basically driven either by the firms that have one month and three month agency or the quants that have to take these price signals into account.”

Henry Ellenbogen · Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview

“And as we all have come to understand with Amazon, they took that three to five percent cost advantage of getting that box to you...and they use that economic advantage to then go build fulfillment centers that are physical to basically reinvest into capital and infrastructure that allowed them to go down that 3% to 5% cost curve for 20 years.”

Henry Ellenbogen · Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview

“having seen internet, cloud and mobile, this is gonna be at least as powerful as internet.”

Henry Ellenbogen · Finding The 1% of Stocks That Matter | Henry Ellenbogen Interview

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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