Roderick van Zuylen

Financial analyst and head of Ketum, an event-driven monitor.

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Key positions and views

Marex is a superior business to its competitor StoneX, evidenced by its significantly higher Return on Equity (30% vs. 15%) and faster growth.

The market is mispricing Marex, which trades at a substantial valuation discount (7-8x P/E) compared to its direct competitor StoneX (12-15x P/E).

The FCM industry is an attractive, consolidating space where regulatory pressures on banks are creating growth and acquisition opportunities for specialized firms like Marex.

Marex has a proven ability to execute highly accretive acquisitions, as demonstrated by the tripling of revenue from the acquired TD Cowen prime brokerage business.

The allegations made in the Ninki Research short-seller report are invalid because they were based on a false premise that certain entities were unconsolidated, when in fact they are included in Marex's financial statements.

Podcast consensus on Zuylen

Points of consensus

▶Van Zuylen consistently portrays Marex as a high-growth company, citing its sevenfold earnings increase over five years, 30%+ annual growth since its IPO, and a significant rise in client balances to $20 billion.May 2026

▶He repeatedly emphasizes Marex's superior operational efficiency and profitability compared to its main competitor, StoneX, highlighting Marex's 30% Return on Equity (ROE) versus StoneX's 15%.May 2026

▶A core part of his analysis is the ongoing consolidation in the Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) industry, noting the number of firms has halved and that banks are exiting due to regulatory pressures, creating opportunities for players like Marex.May 2026

▶He views Marex's acquisition strategy as highly successful and accretive, pointing to the TD Cowen prime brokerage acquisition, which saw revenues triple from $80 million to $250 million in two years.May 2026

Points of debate

▶Van Zuylen presents a valuation conflict, arguing Marex is undervalued at 7-8 times earnings while its less profitable competitor, StoneX, trades at a higher multiple of 12-15 times earnings.May 2026

▶He contrasts the significant growth opportunities from industry consolidation with the inherent risks, such as the potential for major losses in volatile markets, citing the 2020 oil price event where ABN AMRO and Interactive Brokers lost hundreds of millions.May 2026

▶He balances his bullish thesis on Marex's growth with potential headwinds, specifically identifying a 17% private equity stake as a potential stock overhang and the company's earnings sensitivity to falling interest rates.May 2026

▶He addresses the conflict between the Ninki Research short-seller report's allegations of fake profits via unconsolidated entities and Marex management's rebuttal that these entities are, in fact, fully consolidated in their financials.May 2026

Key themes

▶Marex's Superior Performance and UndervaluationMay 2026

Van Zuylen builds a strong case that Marex is a top-tier performer in its sector, evidenced by its 30% ROE, 7x earnings growth in five years, and rapid expansion of client balances. He contrasts this with what he perceives as a significant market mispricing, where Marex trades at a steep discount (7-8x P/E) to its primary competitor, StoneX (12-15x P/E).

This theme suggests a classic value investment thesis where a company's strong fundamental performance and growth trajectory are not yet fully reflected in its stock price, presenting a potential opportunity for investors who agree with the analysis.

▶Industry Consolidation as a Growth CatalystMay 2026

A key macro trend underpinning van Zuylen's analysis is the shrinking landscape of Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs), which has contracted from 100 to 50 firms. He attributes this to banks exiting the space due to Basel III/IV capital requirements, leaving a mid-tier market dominated by Marex, StoneX, and the for-sale ADM division.

This consolidation creates a less competitive environment and a fertile ground for acquisitions, allowing well-capitalized players like Marex to gain market share and acquire businesses at attractive multiples (3-4x earnings).

▶Strategic M&A as a Core CompetencyMay 2026

Van Zuylen highlights Marex's ability to execute highly successful acquisitions as a key driver of its growth. The prime example is the TD Cowen prime brokerage business, which Marex grew from $80 million to $250 million in revenue within two years, demonstrating its capacity to integrate and scale acquired assets effectively.

This focus on M&A suggests that investors should evaluate Marex not just on its organic growth but also on its pipeline and ability to successfully integrate future acquisitions, which appear central to its strategy.

▶Risk Factors and Management CredibilityMay 2026

Despite his bullish stance, van Zuylen acknowledges several risks, including earnings sensitivity to interest rate cuts, a private equity overhang, and a recent short-seller report. He notes Marex's management directly addressed the short-seller claims by stating the entities were fully consolidated, a response he seems to find credible.

This theme indicates that while the upside is significant, potential investors must weigh specific financial risks (interest rates) and governance/perception risks (PE stake, short reports) against the company's strong performance narrative.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2009

The private equity firm JRJ makes its initial investment in Marex, beginning a long-term holding period.

Past 20 Years

Van Zuylen notes a secular decline in the number of Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) from approximately 100 to 50.

Past 5 Years

Marex experiences a period of hyper-growth, increasing its earnings sevenfold. During this time, the global growth rate of futures trading volume also accelerates to over 12% annually.

2020

A major market stress event occurs when oil prices turn negative, causing significant losses for FCMs like ABN AMRO ($200M) and Interactive Brokers ($100M+), highlighting industry risks.

Approx. 2 years ago

Marex acquires the TD Cowen prime brokerage business and held client balances in the $12-14 billion range, which have since grown to $20 billion.

October 2023

Short-seller Ninki Research publishes a report alleging Marex was booking fake profits with unconsolidated entities, which Marex management later refuted.

Suggested prompts

How sustainable is Marex's 30% Return on Equity, and what are the primary drivers that could cause it to revert to the industry mean? &nearr;Given the valuation gap between Marex and StoneX, what specific catalysts could lead to a re-rating of Marex's stock? &nearr;What are the strategic implications for Marex if it were to acquire the FCM division of Archer Daniels Midland? &nearr;How does the 17% private equity overhang from JRJ impact Marex's capital allocation strategy and stock performance in the near term? &nearr;

Key concepts

Marex ($MRX) 1 ep Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) 1 ep StoneX ($SNEX) 1 ep Return on Equity (ROE) 1 ep Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) 1 ep Valuation Multiples (P/E) 1 ep Short-Seller Reports 1 ep Interest Rate Sensitivity 1 ep Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) 1 ep TD Cowen 1 ep

Notable quotes

“i think myrex rates at seven to eight times pe on what they're going to earn this year versus stone x that is uh as about 12 to 15 times in that range”

Roderick van Zuylen · Night Watch's Roderick van Zuylen on Marex $MRX

“they acquired TD Cohen the prime broker and in that period they like when they bought it revenues were 80 million and in the last like two years later they were at 250 million so they 3xed the revenue”

Roderick van Zuylen · Night Watch's Roderick van Zuylen on Marex $MRX

“StoneX was more like 15. And Marix is actually at 30 in last quarters. So it's a big difference for more or less the same business.”

Roderick van Zuylen · Night Watch's Roderick van Zuylen on Marex $MRX

“there's archer daniel michelin which uh which i think is for sale at the moment so there's actually just three companies you uh you can buy at the moment so it's a consolidating space”

Roderick van Zuylen · Night Watch's Roderick van Zuylen on Marex $MRX

Report last updated: May 4, 2026

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