Brian Kim

Venture Capitalist at a16z specializing in AI investments

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

Momentum and product shipment velocity are the new primary competitive moats for AI startups, superseding traditional metrics like user retention.

The AI platform shift is a more significant technological event than the internet, fundamentally changing user behavior from consumption to creation and productivity.

The economics of AI startups are uniquely favorable, with declining compute costs and high-margin structures allowing for rapid scaling where growth almost directly translates to profitability.

Traditional, slow-paced product development is obsolete in the AI era; startups must ship products at a high cadence to keep up with the rapid pace of underlying model improvements.

Broad government regulation of AI development is counterproductive, as it moves too slowly and is more likely to stifle innovation than achieve positive outcomes.

Podcast consensus on Kim

Points of consensus

▶Brian Kim consistently emphasizes that speed is the most critical factor for AI startups, citing 'product shipment velocity' and 'momentum' as the new primary competitive moats.Apr 2026

▶He believes the fundamental metrics for evaluating startups have changed, shifting focus from traditional indicators like 'retention' and 'revenue per employee' to 'velocity' in user and revenue growth.Apr 2026

▶Kim holds a strong conviction that the current AI platform shift is a historically significant event, even larger in scale and impact than the internet.Apr 2026

▶He views the economics of AI application companies as exceptionally favorable, characterized by declining compute costs and 'incredible' margin structures where growth closely mirrors profitability.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Kim's own investment focus has shifted significantly; he explicitly states that his 'north star metric' has changed from user retention (pre-2023) to 'velocity' in the current AI climate.Apr 2026

▶He contrasts the traditional startup strategy of slowly crafting a perfect product with the current necessity of rapid, continuous shipping, arguing the former is no longer viable due to the pace of AI model improvements.Apr 2026

▶Kim notes a debate within the venture capital community following ChatGPT's launch between two theses: one predicting a single dominant 'mother model' and another predicting separate winning models for different modalities.Apr 2026

▶His argument against broad AI regulation stands in contrast to growing public and governmental calls for oversight, positioning his view as one that prioritizes innovation speed over precautionary governance.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The New VC Playbook for AIApr 2026

Brian Kim outlines a revised investment thesis for the AI era, prioritizing speed and momentum over traditional metrics. He argues that diligence timelines have compressed to weeks and that 'velocity' in user growth and product shipment is now the key indicator of success, replacing older benchmarks like retention.

This signals a high-risk, high-reward investment environment where VCs are willing to overlook traditional signs of stability in favor of explosive growth potential, potentially leading to more volatile investment cycles.

▶AI as a Foundational Economic ShiftApr 2026

Kim posits that AI is a more significant technological platform shift than the internet, fundamentally altering business economics and user behavior. He points to declining compute costs, 'incredible' margin structures for new apps, and a user shift from consumption to creation as evidence of this transformation.

Investors aligned with this view are likely to value total addressable market (TAM) expansively, as seen with Eleven Labs, and may underwrite companies with initially low margins, betting on future cost reductions.

▶Momentum as the Ultimate MoatApr 2026

In a landscape where underlying AI models improve weekly, Kim argues that traditional product-based moats are eroding. He believes the primary competitive advantage is now 'momentum,' defined by rapid product shipping and distribution, which compounds over time to outpace competitors.

This framework suggests that for AI startups, the ability to iterate and deploy quickly is more valuable than perfecting a single feature, placing a premium on engineering and operational excellence.

▶The Future of Consumer AI

Kim offers specific predictions on the evolution of AI, anticipating a move beyond productivity tools towards applications that enhance social connection and relationships by 2026. He also speculates on the form factor of future hardware, predicting an audio-first ambient device from the Jony Ive/OpenAI collaboration.

This forward-looking view indicates an investment focus on the next wave of AI applications that integrate more seamlessly into personal lives, moving from explicit task-based interactions to implicit, relationship-oriented ones.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Pre-2023

Kim's self-described investment focus was on user retention as the 'north star metric' for evaluating startups.

Post-ChatGPT Launch

The venture capital community, including Kim, observed a debate between a 'mother model' thesis and a modality-specific model thesis for AI dominance.

Current (2023-2024)

Kim has shifted his investment thesis to prioritize 'velocity' and 'momentum,' believing traditional product development is too slow for the AI era. This period includes a16z's $15 million investment in Cluey.

Near-Term Future (Current Year)

Kim predicts Waymo will expand to three more cities and that tech layoffs will decrease compared to the previous year.

Mid-Term Future (By 2026)

Kim predicts a major shift in consumer AI applications from productivity tools to those enhancing social connectivity and relationships.

Suggested prompts

How does Brian Kim's 'velocity over retention' thesis account for long-term customer value and defensibility in a market with low switching costs? &nearr;What are the potential risks of a16z's 'run into fires' investment philosophy when applied to rapidly evolving and potentially controversial AI companies? &nearr;How does Kim reconcile the belief in 'incredible' margin structures with the rapidly declining cost of compute, which could lead to intense price competition? &nearr;Given Kim's view that AI is bigger than the internet, what second-order societal shifts does he anticipate beyond immediate productivity gains and the shift from consumption to creation? &nearr;

Key concepts

AI Investment Strategy 1 ep Startup Metrics & Evaluation 1 ep Competitive Moats 1 ep AI Market Dynamics 1 ep Product Development Philosophy 1 ep Future of Consumer AI 2 ep AI Economics 1 ep Specific Company Analysis (Cluey, Replit, Eleven Labs) 1 ep AI Regulation 1 ep AI Hardware 1 ep

Notable quotes

“prior to 2024 or prior to 2023 my north star metric was retention... what I now look for is velocity... velocity in user growth or revenue.”

Brian Kim · Why a16z Bet $15 Million on THIS Controversial Startup

“I believe there are a couple of my beliefs where I think AI is bigger than internet.”

Brian Kim · Why a16z Bet $15 Million on THIS Controversial Startup

“What I do look at is product shipment velocity... if you're shipping product faster, there's just higher chance you're going to catch something. and shipping product faster, 10%, 20% each week, that should compound.”

Brian Kim · Why a16z Bet $15 Million on THIS Controversial Startup

“the current dynamic of the cost structure, especially for apps companies, really favor this equation of gross almost equals profitability. The margin structure of some of these companies that we're investors in is incredible.”

Brian Kim · Why a16z Bet $15 Million on THIS Controversial Startup

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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