Christophe Fouquet

CEO of ASML, a critical supplier of lithography systems to the semiconductor industry.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

AI is the new driver of the semiconductor industry, demanding a 16x increase in transistor density every two years, which will force major changes in chip design for both logic and memory.

EUV lithography is absolutely essential for manufacturing advanced logic chips economically and in high volume; there is no viable alternative.

Government subsidies like the CHIPS Act are a short-term solution that fails to address the fundamental cost disadvantages of manufacturing in the West, risking long-term uncompetitiveness.

China is technologically contained in semiconductor manufacturing, lagging 10-15 years behind the leading edge due to its lack of access to EUV machines.

The core principle of Moore's Law, increasing transistor density, is not dead and will continue to be actively executed by the industry for at least another 20 years.

Podcast consensus on Fouquet

Points of consensus

▶EUV lithography is indispensable for manufacturing advanced logic chips at high volume and at an economically viable cost, a point underscored by TSMC's competitive advantage over Intel after adopting the technology.Apr 2026

▶The rise of AI is creating an unprecedented demand for computational power, pushing for a 16-fold increase in transistor density every two years, a significant acceleration of traditional Moore's Law.Apr 2026

▶Geographic diversification of the semiconductor supply chain faces fundamental economic hurdles, as manufacturing in the US and Europe is significantly more expensive than in Asia, a structural problem that subsidies like the CHIPS Act do not solve long-term.Apr 2026

▶Sustained, long-term, and collaborative R&D is the bedrock of semiconductor innovation, as evidenced by ASML's 15+ year, $6 billion+ development of EUV and its deep partnership with Zeiss.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Fouquet's prediction that Moore's Law will continue for at least another 20 years represents a bullish stance that contrasts with some industry discourse suggesting the law is slowing or nearing its physical limits.

▶His assertion that government subsidies like the CHIPS Act are insufficient for long-term success directly challenges the prevailing political narrative that these programs can secure regional semiconductor independence and competitiveness.Apr 2026

▶Fouquet's assessment that a military conflict over Taiwan is 'very unlikely' is a more optimistic geopolitical view than that held by many analysts, whose concerns are a primary driver of global supply chain diversification efforts.Apr 2026

▶His claim that it is 'nearly impossible' for a new entrant to develop a leading-edge process from scratch casts doubt on the ultimate success of state-backed initiatives like Japan's Rapidus, even with licensed technology.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Indispensability of EUV LithographyApr 2026

Fouquet positions ASML's EUV technology as the non-negotiable foundation for modern, leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing. He details the immense, multi-decade, multi-billion dollar investment required to develop it, including a critical partnership with Zeiss, and points to its adoption by TSMC as the key differentiator in its competition with Intel.

For investors, this theme reinforces ASML's deep technological moat and near-monopolistic position at the most critical chokepoint in the advanced semiconductor value chain, making its technology a prerequisite for any entity with leading-edge ambitions.

▶AI as an Accelerator for Moore's LawApr 2026

According to Fouquet, the demands of AI are fundamentally reshaping the trajectory of semiconductor development. He claims AI hardware developers now require a 16-fold increase in transistor density every two years, dwarfing the traditional doubling of Moore's Law, while also necessitating future chip designs to be re-architected specifically for AI workloads.

This signals a massive and sustained demand cycle for ASML's most advanced equipment, as the entire industry must retool and innovate at an accelerated pace to meet the computational needs of the AI era.

▶The Structural Economics of Global Chip ManufacturingApr 2026

Fouquet consistently emphasizes the underlying economic realities that govern semiconductor manufacturing. He argues that government subsidies like the CHIPS Act are temporary fixes that fail to address the structural cost disadvantages of operating in the US and Europe compared to Asia, warning that geopolitical decoupling will inevitably increase costs.

Analysts should be cautious about the long-term viability and cost-competitiveness of Western semiconductor fabs, as Fouquet suggests that without addressing operational cost structures, they will struggle to compete with Asian counterparts after initial subsidies run out.

▶Geopolitical Technology Gaps and Controls

Fouquet provides a clear assessment of the current geopolitical landscape in semiconductors, specifically quantifying China's capabilities. He states that the lack of access to EUV technology places China's semiconductor manufacturing 10 to 15 years behind the leading edge, making it a critical chokepoint for China's technological ambitions.

This highlights the effectiveness of technology controls centered on lithography and suggests that China's path to semiconductor self-sufficiency at the leading edge is blocked for the foreseeable future, solidifying the technological advantage of nations with EUV access.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Over 20 years ago

ASML began the foundational research for EUV technology, a process that would take over two decades to reach economic viability.

Over 15 years ago

ASML initiated a period of intense investment, ultimately spending over $6 billion to develop its EUV lithography systems, in close partnership with optics company Zeiss.

Pre-launch of 7nm/5nm nodes

A co-investment program with key customers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung accelerated EUV development by an estimated three to five years, enabling its market readiness.

7nm/5nm node transition

TSMC's decision to adopt EUV technology while Intel did not created a significant competitive gap, cementing EUV's status as an essential technology for leading-edge chipmaking.

Present

Fouquet states that demand for chips, supercharged by AI, is outpacing supply, causing customers to accelerate capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond.

Next 20 years

Fouquet predicts that the trend of increasing transistor density, in line with Moore's Law, will continue for at least another two decades.

Suggested prompts

How does Fouquet's view on the insufficiency of the CHIPS Act challenge the long-term strategy for semiconductor reshoring in the US and Europe? &nearr;What are the primary technological and economic bottlenecks, according to Fouquet, to meeting the AI industry's demand for a 16-fold increase in transistor density every two years? &nearr;Based on Fouquet's assessment of China's 10-15 year technology gap, what are the likely strategic responses from Chinese semiconductor firms and the government? &nearr;Fouquet believes Moore's Law will continue for another 20 years. What specific innovations in lithography, materials, or chip architecture does this prediction rely on? &nearr;

Key concepts

EUV Lithography 2 ep Moore's Law 1 ep Artificial Intelligence (AI) Impact 2 ep Geopolitics & Decoupling 1 ep Manufacturing Costs 1 ep Government Subsidies (CHIPS Act) 1 ep R&D and Innovation 1 ep Industry Competition (TSMC vs. Intel) 1 ep Chip Design 1 ep

Notable quotes

“if you look at AI, people who do AI, they don't want to double the density of transistor every two years. Right now, they want to multiply it by a factor of 16 every two years.”

Christophe Fouquet · Christophe Fouquet - CEO of ASML | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

“the problem with chipped acts is that they don't solve that. tax can help you to put a factory, to buy some tool, to get going for one note. But what's very important... is to also make sure that you create a condition where you can compete on cost and on flexibility.”

Christophe Fouquet · Christophe Fouquet - CEO of ASML | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

“china doesn't have access to euv... this means that China is at least, I would say, 10 years behind and most probably a bit more... 10 15 years is most probably if you look at logic where where they stand”

Christophe Fouquet · Christophe Fouquet - CEO of ASML | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

“we say this relationship is worse than a marriage because we can never get divorced we have created a level of interdependency between the two companies which is extremely high”

Christophe Fouquet · Christophe Fouquet - CEO of ASML | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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