Russia's Reshnyk ballistic missile is set to go into serial production, with new buildings being added to ballistic missile component factories to support a large increase in output.

Russia is prioritizing investment in ballistic missiles because they are more successful than their cruise missiles, which are intercepted at a high rate.

The Ukrainian military is not on the verge of collapse, despite facing manpower and AWOL issues, and remains a functioning fighting force.

Russia is expected to select and scale up production of ground combat robotics (UGVs) in 2026.

A major challenge in implementing a ceasefire in Ukraine will be disagreements over the sequencing of actions, similar to the failure of the Minsk agreements.

Russia is expected to demand the lifting of sanctions and the restoration of diplomatic and economic ties as part of any negotiated settlement in Ukraine.

A negotiated ceasefire settlement to the war in Ukraine is predicted to be reached later in 2026.