Edward Harrison believes the Federal Reserve is more likely to hike interest rates before lowering them due to the strong US economy and inflationary pressures.

Edward Harrison believes a year-on-year core CPI increase of 2.6% or 2.7% would be a very positive signal for the Federal Reserve.

Edward Harrison expects upcoming US inflation data to be elevated, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a larger increase than the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The average economist expectation for final demand producer prices for May is a 6.4% increase.

The average economist expectation for producer prices excluding food and energy for May is a 5.4% increase.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, bottomed at 2.6% in April 2025 and has since accelerated to 3.3% in its most recent reading.

Following a strong jobs report, the market has priced in a potential Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as the end of 2024.

The lowest market expectation for the upcoming US inflation data is a 2.9% year-on-year increase for core CPI.

The market priced in a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as soon as the end of this year following the recent strong jobs report.

Edward Harrison believes the Federal Reserve should hike interest rates before lowering them due to the strong US economy and inflationary pressures.

The lowest market expectation for the May core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a 2.9% year-over-year increase.

According to Bloomberg's average economist expectations, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand is projected to be 6.4% for May.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, has accelerated from a low of 2.6% in April 2025 to a recent reading of 3.3%.

Edward Harrison expects the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) to show more elevation than the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase to 2.9% from its current level of 2.8%.

The average economist expectation for the US core Producer Price Index (PPI), excluding food and energy, for May is a 5.4% increase.

The lowest market expectation for the year-on-year increase in the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 2.9%.

The conflict in the Middle East has not had a negative impact on U.S. consumer spending or job formation.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show more elevation than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the upcoming US inflation data release.

The last three months of job gains in the U.S. represent the strongest period of job growth since the beginning of 2024.