Chris Gdonsky

Analyst and expert on the commercialization, investment landscape, and geopolitics of nuclear fusion.

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Key positions and views

Commercial fusion energy is on the verge of reality, with electricity expected on the grid within a 3-to-7-year timeframe.

The fusion race is now led by private capital and corporate off-takers, particularly Big Tech, who are moving faster and more aggressively than governments or traditional utilities.

China poses the most significant competitive threat to Western leadership in fusion, having committed substantially more capital than the U.S. public and private sectors combined since late 2022.

Signed Power Purchase Agreements are the most critical milestone for fusion companies, as they validate the technology's commercial potential and secure future revenue, transforming projects from speculative to bankable.

Different nations are placing strategic bets on different technologies; for example, Germany is investing billions to specifically champion Stellarator-based fusion.

Podcast consensus on Gdonsky

Points of consensus

▶Gdonsky consistently emphasizes that private capital is the primary driver of current fusion development, citing specific record-breaking investment years like 2021 ($2.7B) and 2025 ($2.4B) and major funding rounds like Pacific Fusion's $900M Series A.Apr 2026

▶He repeatedly points to Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) as concrete evidence of commercial viability, highlighting the Helion-Microsoft deal for 2028 and the Commonwealth Fusion Systems-Eni agreement as key market signals.Apr 2026

▶Gdonsky's analysis consistently frames the development of fusion energy as a geopolitical race, specifically noting China's massive investment surge (almost $6.5B) following the U.S. Lawrence Livermore Lab's 2022 breakthrough, with the explicit goal of gaining global leadership.Apr 2026

▶He identifies hyperscale data center operators (like Microsoft and Google) as crucial early adopters and investors in fusion, driven by their need for reliable, scalable, and clean power, where cost is a secondary concern to availability.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Gdonsky presents a highly optimistic commercialization timeline of 'three to seven years,' which contrasts with the more distant target dates he cites for specific major projects, such as Commonwealth Fusion Systems aiming for the mid-2030s.Apr 2026

▶He highlights the technological difficulty of various fusion approaches, such as stellarators being 'difficult to build' and tokamaks being 'difficult to operate,' creating a tension with his overall bullish short-term outlook on commercial success.Apr 2026

▶Gdonsky points to China's investment as 'significantly more' than the U.S. public and private sectors combined, suggesting a potential U.S. decline in leadership, yet simultaneously details a vibrant and well-funded U.S. private sector with major corporate backing.

▶While focusing on large-scale power generation as the end goal, he also notes that at least one company is generating 'early revenue' from ancillary applications like medical isotopes, which could imply that direct, profitable power generation is still a considerable way off.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Geopolitical Race for Fusion DominanceApr 2026

Gdonsky frames the pursuit of commercial fusion as a high-stakes competition between nations, primarily the U.S. and China. He claims China dramatically increased its investment to almost $6.5 billion after a 2022 U.S. scientific breakthrough, explicitly to 'take the leadership mantle,' while European nations worry about falling behind both.

Investors should monitor national industrial policies and public funding announcements in fusion, as they may signal which countries and associated companies are likely to lead, creating both opportunities and geopolitical risks.

▶Private Capital and Big Tech as Primary AccelerantsApr 2026

A core theme is that private investment, particularly from tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and NVIDIA, is outpacing traditional government and utility efforts. Gdonsky contrasts the aggressive, risk-tolerant approach of hyperscalers with the slower, more conservative focus of utilities on technologies like SMRs.

The fusion sector's trajectory is now heavily tied to the strategic interests and capital of the tech industry, suggesting that future breakthroughs may be driven more by data center power needs than by traditional energy market dynamics.

▶De-Risking Commercialization Through Power Purchase AgreementsApr 2026

Gdonsky repeatedly emphasizes the significance of binding Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) as the most credible indicator of market readiness. He cites the Helion-Microsoft PPA for 2028 and the billion-dollar Eni-CFS deal as proof that sophisticated customers are locking in future supply, moving fusion from a scientific experiment to a bankable asset.

Analysts should treat signed PPAs as a key diligence metric for evaluating fusion companies, as they represent a tangible commitment from customers and a major de-risking event for project financing.

▶Divergent Technological Pathways and National BetsApr 2026

Gdonsky details the variety of fusion technologies being pursued globally, highlighting different national and corporate strategies. He contrasts the U.S. private sector's focus on tokamaks (CFS) and other novel concepts with Germany's aggressive, state-backed push to commercialize stellarators, a technology he notes is difficult to build but easier to operate.

The fusion market is not a monolithic bet on one technology; investors must understand the distinct risk profiles, supply chains, and operational challenges associated with different approaches like tokamaks, stellarators, and Z-pinch.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2021

Gdonsky identifies this as a record year for private capital investment in the fusion industry, totaling $2.7 billion.

December 2022

He pinpoints the net energy gain achievement at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory as a pivotal scientific breakthrough that catalyzed a massive geopolitical response, particularly from China.

Post-December 2022

Following the LLNL event, Gdonsky claims China funneled almost $6.5 billion into fusion-related activities, including $3.8 billion into two private companies, to accelerate its program.

2025

Gdonsky describes 2025 as another near-record year for private investment, with approximately $2.4 billion invested in fusion companies.

2028

This is the target year Gdonsky cites for Helion Energy's power purchase agreement with Microsoft to begin, with construction on the Washington State power plant already underway.

Early to Mid-2030s

Gdonsky notes this as the target timeframe for major commercial plants, including Germany's push to commercialize Stellarator technology and Commonwealth Fusion Systems' plan for its tokamak plant.

Suggested prompts

How does Gdonsky reconcile his 3-7 year commercialization prediction with the longer-term project timelines and acknowledged technical hurdles he also discusses? &nearr;What are the specific economic and policy indicators Gdonsky believes are necessary to maintain U.S. leadership in fusion against China's aggressive investment strategy? &nearr;Beyond PPAs, what other metrics does Gdonsky use to differentiate between commercially promising fusion companies and those that are still in a purely scientific phase? &nearr;How does Gdonsky assess the risk that the tech industry's specific power needs (reliability, scalability) might shape fusion development in a way that doesn't serve the broader public grid? &nearr;

Key concepts

Private Investment in Fusion 6 ep Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) 4 ep Geopolitics of Fusion 4 ep Commonwealth Fusion Systems 4 ep Helion Energy 3 ep Stellarator Technology 3 ep Tokamak Technology 2 ep Hyperscalers & Data Centers 4 ep German Fusion Strategy 4 ep Chinese Fusion Investment 3 ep

Notable quotes

“There are many different avenues right now that are pointing towards the possibility that we will have commercial electrons on the grid from fusion in the next three to seven years sometime.”

Chris Gdonsky · Nuclear Fusion Powers Up for Commercial Breakthrough | Switched On

“There is a realization that the Chinese are very, very aggressive and are interested in taking the leadership mantle away from the U.S. as far as fusion is concerned and investing significantly more money to achieve that goal than is forthcoming from the U.S. government and private investors.”

Chris Gdonsky · Nuclear Fusion Powers Up for Commercial Breakthrough | Switched On

“2025 was almost another record year, just falling short of the 2.7 with about $2.4 billion that I've sort of tracked and calculated, having vested by private institutions into fusion companies.”

Chris Gdonsky · Nuclear Fusion Powers Up for Commercial Breakthrough | Switched On

“you also have a company like any Italian oil company that signed a billion dollar power purchase agreement with the first commercial power plant that Commonwealth Fusion is developing in Data Center Alley in Virginia.”

Chris Gdonsky · Nuclear Fusion Powers Up for Commercial Breakthrough | Switched On

Report last updated: Apr 28, 2026

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