Matt Cherwin

Co-Founder of Merrick Capital, focusing on investment frameworks and market analysis.

Mentions

Appeared in

Discussed in

Key positions and views

The modern financial system is undergoing a 'de facto' recreation of the Glass-Steagall Act, with non-bank entities like alternative asset managers (the 'new G-SIBs') and specialized trading firms taking over credit and trading functions from traditional banks.

The high level of U.S. national debt creates a structural imperative for the government to push interest rates significantly lower than what the market currently anticipates.

Specific segments of commercial real estate, such as trophy office buildings in gateway cities and data centers, are fundamentally mispriced and represent major investment opportunities.

The market consistently underestimates the 'flywheel' effect, where lower rates and tighter credit spreads create a powerful, self-reinforcing cycle of refinancing and value creation.

A firm's primary risk comes from its liabilities, not its assets; therefore, risk management must be centered on the liability side of the balance sheet.

Podcast consensus on Cherwin

Points of consensus

▶Both sources convey Cherwin's assertion that the U.S. government has a structural need for interest rates to fall significantly more than the market expects, due to the high level of national debt (Claims 1, 12).Apr 2026

▶Cherwin consistently argues that the financial system is disaggregating, with specialized trading firms and alternative asset managers taking on roles previously held by large integrated banks (Claims 18, 26, 27, 28, 32).Apr 2026

▶He repeatedly identifies the AI CapEx boom as a source of cheaply priced, mispriced risk, particularly within securitized products related to commercial real estate for data centers (Claims 5, 14).Apr 2026

▶Across both appearances, Cherwin highlights the late 2019 repo crisis, where the overnight borrowing rate against Treasuries spiked to 10%, as a key event illustrating market fragility (Claims 7, 25).Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Cherwin's view that trophy-quality office real estate in gateway cities is a strong investment is presented as an out-of-consensus, contrarian position against general market bearishness on the sector (Claims 19, 22).Apr 2026

▶His assertion that the concepts of the risk-free rate and credit spread are now 'completely intertwined and commingled' (Claim 24) represents a departure from traditional financial analysis and would be debated by many practitioners.Apr 2026

▶Cherwin's belief that the market 'completely underestimates the power of flywheels' in financing markets (Claims 4, 31) suggests he sees value where others do not, a point of contention in asset valuation.Apr 2026

▶His detailed predictions about the potential policy direction of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair are explicitly speculative and represent a specific, debatable forecast of future events (Claims 6, 16, 20, 30).Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Great Disaggregation of FinanceApr 2026

Cherwin argues the financial system is undergoing a fundamental restructuring, akin to a 'de facto' Glass-Steagall Act. He posits that specialized trading firms like Citadel are unbundling market-making, while alternative asset managers like Apollo and Blackstone have become the 'new G-SIBs,' taking over the primary role of credit extension from traditional banks.

This structural shift suggests that systemic risk is migrating from regulated banking institutions to less-regulated entities, requiring analysts to redefine where they look for financial instability and who the key decision-makers in credit markets are.

▶Contrarian Opportunities in Commercial Real EstateApr 2026

Despite widespread pessimism, Cherwin identifies significant, mispriced opportunities within specific segments of commercial real estate. He is particularly bullish on trophy office buildings in gateway cities, citing a supply-demand imbalance, and on data centers fueled by the AI CapEx boom, which he views as a source of cheap, securitizable risk.

This theme highlights a strategy of looking past broad market narratives to find value in specific assets with strong, idiosyncratic drivers, such as secular growth trends (AI) or supply constraints for premium properties.

▶Fiscal Dominance and the Inevitability of Lower RatesApr 2026

A core tenet of Cherwin's macroeconomic view is that the sheer size of the U.S. national debt creates a structural necessity for interest rates to fall significantly. He believes the administration's need to manage this debt burden will ultimately override other monetary policy considerations, forcing rates lower than the market currently anticipates.

This position implies that fiscal policy will dominate monetary policy, suggesting that investment strategies should be positioned for a lower-rate environment over the long term, regardless of short-term inflation data or Fed rhetoric.

▶The Underestimated Power of Financial EngineeringApr 2026

Cherwin emphasizes that markets underestimate the 'flywheel' effect, a self-reinforcing cycle where lower rates and tighter credit spreads enable refinancing that can recover and create substantial value. This focus on the mechanics of financing underpins his belief in the potential for rapid value appreciation in certain credit-sensitive assets.

This focus on financial plumbing suggests that for investors, understanding the mechanics of credit creation and financial engineering is as crucial as macroeconomic forecasting for identifying alpha-generating opportunities.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Late 2019

Cherwin repeatedly references the repo crisis of late 2019, when overnight borrowing rates against Treasuries spiked to 10%, as a pivotal event demonstrating underlying fragility in the financial plumbing (Claims 7, 25).

Post-2019

Describes an ongoing 'disaggregation' of the financial system where non-bank entities like alternative asset managers and specialized trading firms are taking over core functions from traditional banks (Claims 18, 26, 27, 28, 32).

Current

Articulates a strong, out-of-consensus bullish view on specific commercial real estate assets, including trophy offices and data centers, which he believes are mispriced by the market (Claims 5, 17, 19, 22, 23).

Current

Asserts that the U.S. government's high debt level creates a structural need for significantly lower interest rates than what is currently priced into the market (Claims 1, 12).

Future (Speculative)

Makes several predictions contingent on Kevin Warsh becoming Federal Reserve Chair, including a policy shift towards a more forward-looking framework and an argument that AI-driven productivity gains would permit lower rates (Claims 6, 30).

H2 2026

Predicts a 'very different' market environment in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half if his speculative forecast about Kevin Warsh's appointment and subsequent policy implementation comes to pass (Claims 16, 20).

Suggested prompts

How does Cherwin's 'de facto Glass-Steagall' thesis alter traditional models for assessing systemic risk in the financial sector? &nearr;What specific market indicators would validate or invalidate Cherwin's contrarian bullish thesis on trophy office real estate in gateway cities? &nearr;To what extent does Cherwin's view on the U.S. government's need for lower rates imply a future of fiscal dominance over monetary policy? &nearr;How can the 'flywheel' effect be quantitatively modeled to assess its potential impact on mispriced credit assets? &nearr;

Key concepts

Financial System Disaggregation 2 ep Commercial Real Estate (CRE) 2 ep Alternative Asset Managers / New G-SIBs 2 ep Monetary Policy / Federal Reserve 2 ep Interest Rates & National Debt 2 ep AI / Data Centers 2 ep Flywheel Effect 2 ep Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) 2 ep Repo Market 2 ep Risk Management 1 ep

Notable quotes

“WE SAID THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS CHANGING. YOU ARE DEFACTO RECREATING GLASS STEAGL.”

Matt Cherwin · Risk and Return: Masters in Business with Matt Cherwin

“they need rates to get down. And they needed to come down a lot more than what the market and the curve has already priced in because of how much debt the country has, what it costs, what they want to accomplish.”

Matt Cherwin · Risk and Reward with Marek Capital Co-Founder Matt Cherwin | Masters in Business

“I think they're underestimating the things that could go right, or what the power of financing and the mechanics around financing and the provision of liquidity and credit spreads, when they're good and when they're tight, and when the machine is flowing, what that financial engineering can really do to both recover value and create value, I think they're underestimating that.”

Matt Cherwin · Risk and Reward with Marek Capital Co-Founder Matt Cherwin | Masters in Business

“We said they the new GSIBs people like Apollo Blackstone KKR BlackRock These are Aries These are the folks that are actually making credit extension decisions in this economy”

Matt Cherwin · Risk and Reward with Marek Capital Co-Founder Matt Cherwin | Masters in Business

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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