Thomas Larsen's median forecast for AGI is 2031, with superintelligence following in 2032.

China could win the AI race by dominating energy infrastructure and if the US hinders its own data center buildout through regulation, especially if AGI timelines extend to 2032 or beyond.

Vector-based memory in AI models could have 1,000 times more information bandwidth than token-based communication, which is limited to about 16 bits per token for a 100,000-token vocabulary.