Advocates for a strict value investing strategy, focusing on companies with low Price-to-Earnings ratios, exemplified by the Temple Bar portfolio which trades at less than 10x earnings.
Maintains a deeply skeptical view of high-multiple 'quality' stocks, citing examples like Nike, Starbucks, Walmart, and Costco as dangerously overvalued, especially when their earnings growth falters or reverses.
Believes traditional energy companies like BP and Shell are undervalued and are making strategically sound U-turns back to their core oil and gas businesses, a move supported by activist investors.
Asserts that monetary policy is an ineffective tool for addressing supply-side geopolitical shocks, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, making direct investment in beneficiary sectors more prudent.
Identifies operational inefficiencies and poor post-acquisition integration as key drivers of underperformance and value opportunities in companies like WPP.
2010
Cites Microsoft trading at an 8x P/E multiple with net cash as a historical example of a value opportunity.
2018
References Reckitt Benckiser's earnings per share of £3.20 as a historical benchmark for its current performance.
Late 2020
Red Wheel, where Lance is a fund manager, takes over management of the Temple Bar Investment Trust, which has since returned approximately 240%.
End of last year
The Temple Bar Investment Trust purchased shares in US shale producers Devon Energy and Chord Energy.
Recently
The Temple Bar Investment Trust initiated a new position in Diageo following a decline in the company's earnings and a dividend cut.
Current
Observes that the S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high and states the Strait of Hormuz is shut down, framing the current market and geopolitical environment.
▶Value Investing PhilosophyMay 2026
Lance champions a classic value investing approach, targeting companies with low Price-to-Earnings ratios that are out of favor with the market. He contrasts the Temple Bar trust's portfolio P/E of less than 10 with the high multiples of popular stocks like Walmart (45x) and Costco (50x).
This theme suggests his strategy is fundamentally contrarian, seeking alpha by betting against prevailing market sentiment that has heavily favored high-growth, high-multiple stocks.
▶Skepticism of 'Quality Growth' Valuations
Lance expresses significant concern about the valuations of popular 'quality growth' companies, arguing their stock prices are disconnected from their declining or stagnant earnings. He points to Nike, where EPS fell from $4 to $1.50, and Starbucks, where EPS declined from $3.50 to $2.30, while both maintained high P/E multiples.
Investors should scrutinize the earnings trajectory of highly-valued stocks, as Lance's analysis implies a significant risk of multiple compression if growth expectations are not met or reversed.
▶Geopolitics as a Supply-Side DriverMay 2026
He asserts that major geopolitical events, specifically citing the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, create supply-side shocks that cannot be effectively managed with traditional monetary policy tools. This view informs his investments in energy producers like Devon Energy and Chord Energy, which can benefit from such supply constraints.
This highlights a belief that macroeconomic policy is ill-equipped to handle certain global risks, making direct investment in resilient or beneficiary sectors a more effective portfolio strategy.
▶Corporate Strategy and Activism as Catalysts
Lance pays close attention to corporate strategy shifts and the influence of activist investors as potential catalysts for unlocking value. He cites BP's U-turn back to oil and gas, influenced by activist Elliott Management, and WPP's integration failures as key factors in his investment theses.
This indicates his analysis goes beyond simple valuation metrics to include qualitative assessments of management decisions and external pressures that can force strategic changes and lead to a stock's re-rating.