Ian Lance

Fund Manager at Red Wheel, managing the Temple Bar Investment Trust.

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Key positions and views

Advocates for a strict value investing strategy, focusing on companies with low Price-to-Earnings ratios, exemplified by the Temple Bar portfolio which trades at less than 10x earnings.

Maintains a deeply skeptical view of high-multiple 'quality' stocks, citing examples like Nike, Starbucks, Walmart, and Costco as dangerously overvalued, especially when their earnings growth falters or reverses.

Believes traditional energy companies like BP and Shell are undervalued and are making strategically sound U-turns back to their core oil and gas businesses, a move supported by activist investors.

Asserts that monetary policy is an ineffective tool for addressing supply-side geopolitical shocks, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, making direct investment in beneficiary sectors more prudent.

Identifies operational inefficiencies and poor post-acquisition integration as key drivers of underperformance and value opportunities in companies like WPP.

Podcast consensus on Lance

Points of consensus

▶Lance consistently advocates for a value-based investment strategy, repeatedly contrasting the low P/E ratio of his trust (under 10x) with the high multiples of popular US stocks like Walmart (45x), Costco (50x), and Starbucks (40x).

▶He consistently identifies the energy sector as a key area of opportunity, highlighting holdings in BP, Shell, Devon Energy, and Chord Energy as undervalued, particularly in light of strategic shifts and geopolitical factors.May 2026

▶He repeatedly points to declining or stagnant earnings in highly-valued companies like Nike, Starbucks, and Reckitt Benckiser as evidence of a fundamental disconnect between market price and actual performance.

Points of debate

▶Lance's position that BP is making a wise 'U-turn' back to its core oil and gas business directly challenges the prevailing market and ESG narrative that favors a rapid, comprehensive energy transition.May 2026

▶His assertion that monetary policy is ineffective against geopolitical supply shocks, such as the Strait of Hormuz closure, contrasts with the central bank-centric view that often dominates macroeconomic market analysis.May 2026

▶His bearish stance on highly-valued 'quality' consumer stocks like Nike, Starbucks, and Walmart represents a contrarian view, as these companies are often considered core holdings in growth-oriented portfolios.

▶His investment in WPP is based on a belief that its structural integration issues can be resolved, a view that debates the market's current negative sentiment which has driven the share price to a low multiple.May 2026

Key themes

▶Value Investing PhilosophyMay 2026

Lance champions a classic value investing approach, targeting companies with low Price-to-Earnings ratios that are out of favor with the market. He contrasts the Temple Bar trust's portfolio P/E of less than 10 with the high multiples of popular stocks like Walmart (45x) and Costco (50x).

This theme suggests his strategy is fundamentally contrarian, seeking alpha by betting against prevailing market sentiment that has heavily favored high-growth, high-multiple stocks.

▶Skepticism of 'Quality Growth' Valuations

Lance expresses significant concern about the valuations of popular 'quality growth' companies, arguing their stock prices are disconnected from their declining or stagnant earnings. He points to Nike, where EPS fell from $4 to $1.50, and Starbucks, where EPS declined from $3.50 to $2.30, while both maintained high P/E multiples.

Investors should scrutinize the earnings trajectory of highly-valued stocks, as Lance's analysis implies a significant risk of multiple compression if growth expectations are not met or reversed.

▶Geopolitics as a Supply-Side DriverMay 2026

He asserts that major geopolitical events, specifically citing the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, create supply-side shocks that cannot be effectively managed with traditional monetary policy tools. This view informs his investments in energy producers like Devon Energy and Chord Energy, which can benefit from such supply constraints.

This highlights a belief that macroeconomic policy is ill-equipped to handle certain global risks, making direct investment in resilient or beneficiary sectors a more effective portfolio strategy.

▶Corporate Strategy and Activism as Catalysts

Lance pays close attention to corporate strategy shifts and the influence of activist investors as potential catalysts for unlocking value. He cites BP's U-turn back to oil and gas, influenced by activist Elliott Management, and WPP's integration failures as key factors in his investment theses.

This indicates his analysis goes beyond simple valuation metrics to include qualitative assessments of management decisions and external pressures that can force strategic changes and lead to a stock's re-rating.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2010

Cites Microsoft trading at an 8x P/E multiple with net cash as a historical example of a value opportunity.

2018

References Reckitt Benckiser's earnings per share of £3.20 as a historical benchmark for its current performance.

Late 2020

Red Wheel, where Lance is a fund manager, takes over management of the Temple Bar Investment Trust, which has since returned approximately 240%.

End of last year

The Temple Bar Investment Trust purchased shares in US shale producers Devon Energy and Chord Energy.

Recently

The Temple Bar Investment Trust initiated a new position in Diageo following a decline in the company's earnings and a dividend cut.

Current

Observes that the S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high and states the Strait of Hormuz is shut down, framing the current market and geopolitical environment.

Suggested prompts

How does Ian Lance's value-oriented strategy perform during periods of sustained market momentum driven by the 'quality growth' stocks he actively avoids? &nearr;What specific catalysts does Lance foresee that will cause the market to re-evaluate its high multiples for stocks like Walmart and Costco? &nearr;To what extent is the Temple Bar trust's performance dependent on continued geopolitical instability and high energy prices? &nearr;What are the key execution risks in the corporate turnarounds Lance has invested in, such as the integration at WPP or the strategic U-turn at BP? &nearr;

Key concepts

Temple Bar Investment Trust 1 ep Value Investing 1 ep Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios 1 ep Energy Sector (BP, Shell, Devon, Chord) 1 ep Consumer Goods (Nike, Starbucks, Diageo) 1 ep Retail Sector (Walmart, Costco) 1 ep Geopolitics (Strait of Hormuz) 1 ep Corporate Strategy & Integration (WPP, BP) 1 ep Activist Investing (Elliott Management) 1 ep Monetary Policy 1 ep

Notable quotes

“The trust is up sort of I think 240% or something since we took it over.”

Ian Lance · Temple Bar's Ian Lance on the Fund's Winning Formula | Merryn Talks Money

“the straight of hormones as we talk today is still shut”

Ian Lance · Temple Bar's Ian Lance on the Fund's Winning Formula | Merryn Talks Money

“the WPP issue is which is it's still run as a series of fiefdoms so all those different advertising agencies, Ogilvy & May, the J. Walter Thompson, et cetera, that were put together through a series of acquisitions, were never really fully integrated”

Ian Lance · Temple Bar's Ian Lance on the Fund's Winning Formula | Merryn Talks Money

“You've got an activist investor in the form of Elliott has come in and taken a stake”

Ian Lance · Temple Bar's Ian Lance on the Fund's Winning Formula | Merryn Talks Money

Report last updated: May 5, 2026

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