Todd McKinnon

CEO of Okta

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

AI agents represent the next major technological platform shift, creating a massive new market for identity management that could become the largest category in cybersecurity.

While 'paranoid' about customers building their own identity solutions with AI, established trust, brand, and the high cost of ensuring reliability give infrastructure software like Okta a strong defensive moat.

The future of software development will still require more human engineers despite AI code generation, and hype around AI completely replacing developers should be viewed with skepticism.

New entrants, not legacy vendors like Microsoft or Salesforce, are best positioned to win the 'digital worker' market because they are not constrained by existing product silos.

Government antitrust action may become necessary if large tech vendors create monopolistic lock-in that prevents customers from using cross-platform AI agents.

Podcast consensus on McKinnon

Points of consensus

▶AI agents represent a fundamental technological shift, creating a massive new market for identity management that is Okta's top priority to win.Apr 2026

▶Despite the disruptive threat of AI, established infrastructure software companies like Okta have a defensive moat due to the high importance of trust, brand reputation, and reliability.Apr 2026

▶Okta is actively and publicly pivoting its strategy to address the agentic AI trend, exemplified by its 'Blueprint for the Agentic Enterprise' and a radical increase in its internal rate of change.Apr 2026

▶The future software landscape will continue to grow, with more human software engineers needed in the next five years, and new entrants are better positioned than legacy vendors to win in the AI agent space.Apr–Jun 2026

Points of debate

▶McKinnon expresses 'paranoia' about customers using AI to build their own identity tools, yet simultaneously claims that infrastructure software is 'well-insulated' from this very threat due to factors like trust and reliability.Apr 2026

▶He views the AI agent disruption as a bigger technological shift than cloud computing, but also predicts an increase in human software engineers, suggesting AI will be more of an augmentation than a replacement tool in that field.Apr–Jun 2026

▶McKinnon identifies the AI agent market as Okta's single biggest opportunity, while also acknowledging the threat is so significant it required mandating a drastic internal shift from a 20-80 stability-to-change ratio to 60-40.Apr 2026

▶He advocates for potential government antitrust action to prevent monopolistic lock-in by large tech vendors, while simultaneously positioning Okta to be the central identity provider in this new ecosystem.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Agentic Enterprise as the Next FrontierApr 2026

McKinnon frames the rise of AI agents as a technological shift potentially larger than the cloud or even the internet. He argues this creates an urgent need for a new layer of identity management for non-human workers, a market he predicts could become the largest category in cybersecurity.

This positions Okta's future growth as being heavily dependent on the successful adoption and integration of AI agents in enterprise, making the company's performance a bellwether for the 'agentic' trend.

▶Paranoid Optimism Amidst DisruptionApr 2026

McKinnon simultaneously expresses 'paranoia' about AI enabling customers to build their own identity tools and strong belief in Okta's defensibility. He argues that trust and reliability are difficult-to-replicate moats, even as he mandates a radical increase in Okta's internal rate of change to adapt to the threat.

This dual perspective highlights the core tension for established software companies in the AI era: leveraging incumbent advantages while aggressively innovating to avoid being displaced by the very technology they seek to manage.

▶Market Dynamics and the Future of Software

McKinnon offers predictions on the broader software landscape, forecasting growth in the number of software engineers and arguing that new, focused companies will outperform legacy giants in the AI agent space. He also points to the potential need for government antitrust intervention to ensure a competitive market for cross-platform agents.

His analysis suggests a belief in cycles of disruption where new architectural shifts create openings for new market leaders, challenging the dominance of established players and potentially requiring regulatory oversight.

▶Okta's Strategic Pivot to AI IdentityApr 2026

In response to the AI shift, McKinnon has publicly outlined Okta's 'Blueprint for the Agentic Enterprise.' This strategy involves treating agents as a new identity type, standardizing connections, and creating a 'kill switch' for safety, representing a concrete product and R&D pivot to address the new market.

This public declaration of strategy serves to reassure investors and customers that Okta is not just observing the AI trend but actively building the foundational infrastructure to manage it, turning a potential existential threat into its primary business opportunity.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Apr 2026

9 bullish, 2 bearish, 7 neutral(18 claims)

Okta's CEO, Todd McKinnon, stated on an earnings call that the company is "paran...

Jun 2026

2 bullish(2 claims)

Okta CEO Todd McKinnon believes the idea of a "SaaSpocalypse" is completely over...

Changes over time

Pre-AI Shift (Implied)

Okta operated with a typical 20-80 change-to-stability ratio, focused on its core business of human and customer identity management.

Recognition of Threat/Opportunity

McKinnon identifies the rise of AI agents as a major technological shift and acknowledges 'paranoia' about the threat of customers building their own solutions using LLMs.

Market Inflection Point

Views the emergence of tools like OpenClaw as the 'ChatGPT moment for agents,' which crystallized the potential of agentic AI and signaled a market shift.

Strategic Response Formulation

Declares winning the AI agent identity market as Okta's 'job number one' and mandates a radical internal shift to a 60-40 change-to-stability ratio to accelerate adaptation.

Public Strategy Announcement

Okta announces its 'Blueprint for the Agentic Enterprise,' publicly outlining a concrete plan with pillars like onboarding agents as identities and creating a 'kill switch'.

Suggested prompts

How does McKinnon's 'paranoid optimism' reflect the broader strategic dilemma facing incumbent SaaS companies in the age of generative AI? &nearr;What are the potential vulnerabilities in Okta's 'Blueprint for the Agentic Enterprise,' and how might competitors exploit them? &nearr;To what extent is McKinnon's prediction that new entrants will dominate the 'digital worker' space a self-serving argument to position Okta against legacy giants like Microsoft? &nearr;How does McKinnon's call for potential antitrust action against tech giants creating AI lock-in align with Okta's own market strategy to become a central identity provider? &nearr;

Key concepts

AI Agent Identity 1 ep Okta's Strategy 1 ep Cybersecurity Market 1 ep AI Disruption 1 ep Market Competition 1 ep Future of Software Development 1 ep Okta Company Metrics 1 ep Antitrust & Regulation 1 ep Software Industry Economics 1 ep

Notable quotes

“This new agent layer could be the biggest category in cyber by far. So yeah, winning that is job number one for our company.”

Todd McKinnon · Okta's CEO is betting big on AI agent identity | Decoder

“This is you talking about agentic software development is real. The idea that our customers would build their own tools instead of paying us for these tools is real. We're paranoid about it. we've got to compete with that.”

Todd McKinnon · Okta's CEO is betting big on AI agent identity | Decoder

“I also believe that there's going to be more software engineers in five years than there are now.”

Todd McKinnon · Okta's CEO is betting big on AI agent identity | Decoder

“It's the chat GPT moment for agents.”

Todd McKinnon · Okta's CEO is betting big on AI agent identity | Decoder

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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