J.P. Morgan predicts that job growth, which has nearly stalled across major economies, will rebound and align with solid economic growth through 2026.

J.P. Morgan forecasts little to no additional monetary easing from most major central banks in 2026, with the exception of high-yielding emerging market central banks.

In 2025, the global economy was characterized by a divergence between strong capital expenditures, particularly in technology, and a sharp slowing in job growth.

J.P. Morgan expects that persistent sticky inflation will prevent most central banks from validating market expectations for significant interest rate declines in 2026.

Weak labor supply, driven by material shifts in immigration policies across most advanced economies, is contributing to sticky inflation.

J.P. Morgan predicts that inflation in Western Europe will fall to its target level in 2026, while inflation in the United States will remain sticky at close to 3%.