Matt Lizetti believes it is unlikely that disinflation alone will be sufficient for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year, and that a rate cut would likely require seeing weakness in the labor ma...

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is currently running at 3% year-over-year, which is one percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target.

Deutsche Bank's baseline forecast is for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of the year.

The Federal Reserve staff's economic model suggests that energy price shocks have very little pass-through effect on core inflation.

Alternative modeling conducted by the Federal Reserve after the 2022 oil price shock indicated a more persistent pass-through effect from energy prices to core inflation.

Matt Lizetti reports that Deutsche Bank's clients have significantly reduced their assessment of risk scenarios related to the current geopolitical conflict, believing the peak market impact has alrea...

Historically, 9 out of the 11 recessions in the United States after World War II coincided with a significant oil price shock.

The Federal Reserve estimates that 50 to 75 basis points of the current core PCE inflation rate is attributable to tariffs.

The structure of the U.S. economy has changed significantly over the last decade, with the country now being a net energy exporter with record production levels.

Deutsche Bank estimates that an oil price of approximately $150 per barrel would be the level at which the benefits of the Trump tax cuts for U.S. households would be eliminated.