Chris Humphrey

Expert on EU-ASEAN trade and business, likely affiliated with the European Union Asian Business Council.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

Progress in EU-ASEAN economic relations is primarily happening through a series of bilateral free trade agreements with individual nations, rather than a single region-to-region deal.

Vietnam is the standout economic success story in ASEAN, benefiting significantly from supply chain diversification away from China and on a path to become the region's second-largest economy.

ASEAN is a global pioneer in developing a region-wide digital economy framework, which will likely be the next major area for trade negotiations with the EU.

Despite external trade progress, ASEAN's goal of a single market is unattainable because its members are unwilling to form a customs union, and internal problems like non-tariff barriers and illicit trade persist.

Smaller ASEAN economies like Cambodia face significant future challenges, including the loss of preferential trade access to the EU upon graduating from LDC status and difficulties meeting political conditions for alternative schemes.

Timeline

2023

States that the free trade agreement between the European Union and Indonesia was completed.

Current Year

Predicts the EU-Indonesia FTA will be signed by the end of Q2 and ratified by year-end. Expects EU-Philippines FTA negotiations to conclude and ASEAN's digital economy framework to be finalized.

End of Current Year

Notes that Indonesia is set to lose some of its trade preferences at the end of December, adding urgency to the FTA ratification.

Next Year

Expects the EU and ASEAN to announce the start of negotiations for a region-to-region digital trade agreement. Predicts the EU-Thailand FTA will be completed by the end of Q1 or Q2.

Before end of 2025

Predicts the EU-Malaysia free trade agreement will be completed.

Future

Predicts that Vietnam will eventually become the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia.

Podcast consensus on Humphrey

Points of consensus

▶Chris Humphrey consistently presents the EU-Indonesia Free Trade Agreement as a finalized deal (completed in 2023) that is moving through the final stages of signing (Q2 this year) and ratification (end of this year).May 2026

▶He provides two distinct but related figures on illicit trade in Southeast Asia, estimating the total value at approximately $35 billion annually and the resulting revenue loss for governments at around $6 billion per year.May 2026

▶Humphrey's analysis points to Vietnam as a major economic beneficiary of current geopolitical trends, citing its over 20% trade growth with the EU post-FTA and predicting it will become ASEAN's second-largest economy due to supply chain diversification from China.May 2026

▶He consistently views the digital economy as a key area of progress, highlighting ASEAN's development of a world-first regional framework and predicting the start of EU-ASEAN digital trade negotiations next year.May 2026

Points of debate

▶Humphrey presents a contrasting view of ASEAN's integration progress: he is optimistic about its pioneering role in the digital economy with a region-wide framework, but simultaneously pessimistic about its core economic goals, believing it will never achieve a single market due to an unwillingness to form a customs union.May 2026

▶There is a tension in his analysis of trade facilitation. While he details significant progress on multiple bilateral free trade agreements with the EU, he also notes that, according to European businesses, non-tariff barriers and burdensome customs procedures are actually increasing within the ASEAN region.May 2026

▶His outlook on ASEAN member states is highly divergent. He is bullish on the economic trajectory of Vietnam and the progress of FTAs with Indonesia and the Philippines, while simultaneously holding a bearish view on Myanmar's business environment (due to the coup) and Cambodia's future (facing the loss of trade preferences and political hurdles for GSP+).

▶Humphrey's claims about the EU-Indonesia FTA timeline contain both factual statements and speculative predictions. He states as fact that the agreement was completed in 2023, but his timelines for its signing (Q2 this year) and ratification (end of this year) are presented as expectations or predictions.May 2026

Key themes

▶EU-ASEAN Bilateral Trade DeepeningMay 2026

Humphrey's analysis focuses heavily on the progress of bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) between the EU and individual ASEAN nations. He provides specific timelines and confidence levels for agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia, framing them as the primary mechanism for strengthening economic ties in lieu of a region-to-region deal.

Investors should monitor the progress of these individual FTAs, as they create distinct market access advantages and regulatory environments on a country-by-country basis, rather than a uniform ASEAN bloc approach.

▶ASEAN's Fragmented Economic Landscape

The claims paint a picture of a region with diverging economic fortunes. Vietnam is positioned as a rising star benefiting from supply chain shifts, while Cambodia faces the loss of crucial EU trade preferences, and Myanmar remains isolated. This highlights that ASEAN is not a monolithic bloc, with individual member states on vastly different trajectories.

A country-specific strategy is essential for businesses operating in ASEAN, as regional trends do not apply uniformly and political or developmental statuses can dramatically alter the commercial landscape.

▶The Digital Economy as a New FrontierMay 2026

Humphrey identifies the digital economy as a key area where ASEAN is showing global leadership, developing the world's first region-wide digital economy framework. He anticipates this will be followed by formal digital trade negotiations with the EU, signaling a new and significant dimension to the EU-ASEAN relationship.

The development of this digital framework represents a major opportunity for tech and service-based industries, potentially creating a more harmonized and predictable regulatory environment for digital trade across Southeast Asia.

▶Persistent Internal Barriers to TradeMay 2026

Despite progress on external FTAs, Humphrey emphasizes significant internal challenges within ASEAN. He points to rising non-tariff barriers, burdensome customs, and a massive illicit trade market ($35 billion annually) as major impediments to commerce. He explicitly states that the bloc's unwillingness to form a customs union will prevent it from ever becoming a true single market.

Analysts should be cautious not to overestimate the ease of operating across ASEAN, as logistical and illicit trade challenges can erode the benefits gained from formal trade agreements.

Source episodes

Suggested prompts

How does Chris Humphrey reconcile his optimism for bilateral EU-ASEAN FTAs with his pessimism about ASEAN's internal market integration? &nearr;What are the primary drivers and consequences of the supply chain diversification from China to Vietnam, according to Humphrey's analysis? &nearr;Based on Humphrey's claims, what are the most significant non-tariff and political barriers hindering deeper economic ties between the EU and ASEAN? &nearr;How does Humphrey assess the future economic trajectories of different ASEAN nations, particularly the contrast between rising economies like Vietnam and those facing challenges like Cambodia and Myanmar? &nearr;

Key concepts

EU-ASEAN Free Trade Agreements 1 ep Geopolitics 1 ep ASEAN Economy 1 ep Digital Economy 1 ep Illicit Trade 1 ep Vietnam 1 ep Cambodia 1 ep Trade Barriers 1 ep Energy Security 1 ep Myanmar 1 ep

Notable quotes

“I think they will hit that second largest economy at some point in the future in Southeast Asia.”

Chris Humphrey · ASEAN's Trade With Europe: The Costs and Trials of Doing Business

“Whatever the first region-wide digital economy framework agreement this year in ASEAN, the first of its kind in the world”

Chris Humphrey · ASEAN's Trade With Europe: The Costs and Trials of Doing Business

“We estimate for governments in Southeast Asia, the revenue loss to governments is around $6 billion US dollars per year.”

Chris Humphrey · ASEAN's Trade With Europe: The Costs and Trials of Doing Business

“Somewhere like the Philippines has declared a state of energy emergency in the country, partly because they're so reliant on fuel coming out from the Middle East.”

Chris Humphrey · ASEAN's Trade With Europe: The Costs and Trials of Doing Business

Report last updated: May 5, 2026

Get started free

Back to Entities Intelligence Report