Leigh Goehring

Natural resource investor and analyst, associated with Goehring & Rozencwajg.

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Key positions and views

The world has entered a 'massive bull market' in gold, fundamentally driven by unprecedented money printing since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Based on his firm's valuation methodology, the price of gold has the potential to reach between $15,000 and $25,000 per ounce at the peak of the current cycle.

The uranium market faces a severe, deepening supply deficit due to production cuts from major producers like Kazatomprom and surging new demand from data centers, with a meaningful supply response not expected until the early 2030s.

Copper demand is on a path to double by 2035, creating a significant supply gap that will be extremely difficult for the mining industry to fill.

There is a major disconnect between bullish gold fundamentals and bearish investor sentiment, evidenced by capital outflows from gold mining ETFs even as the metal's price is rising.

Podcast consensus on Goehring

Points of consensus

▶Leigh Goehring consistently presents a bullish thesis for hard assets, specifically gold, uranium, and copper, viewing them as beneficiaries of major macroeconomic and structural trends.Apr 2026

▶A core element of his analysis across commodities is the focus on impending or existing supply-side constraints, such as Kazatomprom's production cuts in uranium and the long mine lives required for major copper assets.Apr 2026

▶He repeatedly points to a geopolitical shift away from U.S. dollar dominance, citing bilateral trade agreements in local currencies (China-Brazil) and central bank gold accumulation as evidence supporting a bull case for gold.Apr 2026

▶Goehring's analysis highlights a disconnect between strong fundamentals in the gold market and negative investor sentiment, as evidenced by outflows from gold miner ETFs like GDX.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Goehring's projection of a potential gold price between $15,000 and $25,000 per ounce is an extreme outlier forecast that contrasts sharply with mainstream financial analysis.Apr 2026

▶He presents a point of internal tension by arguing for a 'massive bull market' in gold while simultaneously providing evidence of investor apathy and outflows from gold mining ETFs.Apr 2026

▶His prediction that major uranium projects like NexGen's Arrow will be delayed until the early 2030s could be debated by the companies themselves and other industry analysts who may adhere to the official 2028 timeline.Apr 2026

▶Goehring's assertion that gold miners have been 'poor performers' for 20 years presents a challenge to his own bullish outlook on the sector, suggesting structural issues may persist even if the gold price rises.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Inevitable Hard Asset SupercycleApr 2026

Goehring argues that a confluence of factors—unprecedented money printing since 2008, the global energy transition, and geopolitical de-dollarization—has initiated a 'massive bull market' in hard assets. He sees gold, uranium, and copper as primary beneficiaries of these long-term structural shifts.

This theme suggests a portfolio strategy shift away from financial assets and towards tangible, scarce resources, viewing commodities not just as a cyclical trade but as a core holding for the coming decade.

▶Supply-Side Crises Across Critical CommoditiesApr 2026

A recurring theme is the critical lack of supply to meet future demand. Goehring points to Kazatomprom's uranium production cuts, the collapse of U.S. uranium output, and a forecast doubling of copper demand by 2035 as evidence of deep structural deficits that cannot be quickly resolved.

This focus on supply constraints implies that price increases in these commodities may be non-linear and extreme, as markets struggle to incentivize the massive, long-term investment needed for new production.

▶The Fading Dominance of the U.S. DollarApr 2026

Goehring identifies a clear trend of de-dollarization that reinforces his gold thesis. He cites examples like China and Brazil settling commodity trades in renminbi and energy giants like TotalEnergies accepting renminbi for LNG, positioning gold as an ascendant neutral reserve asset.

For analysts, this connects macroeconomic policy and geopolitics directly to commodity pricing, suggesting gold's value will be increasingly driven by its role as a hedge against fiat currency debasement and geopolitical realignment.

▶Investor Sentiment vs. Market Fundamentals in GoldApr 2026

Goehring highlights a significant disconnect between his bullish fundamental outlook for gold and the current bearish sentiment among generalist investors. He notes that even as gold breaks out to new highs, capital is flowing out of gold miner ETFs like GDX, as indicated by falling open interest and contracting shares outstanding.

This contrarian observation presents a potential opportunity; if Goehring's fundamental thesis is correct, a future shift in investor sentiment back towards gold equities could lead to explosive performance, similar to the 30-fold increase in the HUI index after 1999.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

1980

Cites this year as a peak for U.S. uranium production at 40 million pounds, a benchmark against which he measures its subsequent collapse to near-zero levels.

1999-2010

References this period as a historical analogue for gold stock performance, noting the Amex Gold Bug Index (HUI) increased 30-fold over 11 years, suggesting the potential for the current market.

Post-2008

Identifies the period after the global financial crisis as the beginning of massive money printing, which forms the fundamental basis for his current 'massive bull market' thesis in gold.

June 2022

Highlights the release of a key S&P Global report which he uses as a cornerstone for his bullish copper thesis, as it forecasts demand doubling to 50 million tons by 2035.

End of March 2024

Observes that since gold broke out above $2,100, investor sentiment has remained weak, with open interest in the GDX gold miners ETF falling by approximately 10%.

Suggested prompts

How does Goehring's thesis on investor outflows from gold ETFs (GDX) reconcile with his prediction of a 'massive bull market' in gold? &nearr;What are the primary catalysts Goehring identifies for the structural supply deficits in uranium and copper? &nearr;To what extent does Goehring's gold price target of $15,000-$25,000 depend on his de-dollarization thesis playing out? &nearr;What are the key technological developments, such as iPulse and Small Modular Reactors, that Goehring believes could disrupt the energy and metals markets? &nearr;

Key concepts

Gold Market Analysis 7 ep Uranium Supply & Demand 6 ep Copper Market Fundamentals 4 ep De-Dollarization 2 ep Nuclear Energy Revival 3 ep Mining Company Analysis 5 ep Investor Sentiment 2 ep Monetary Policy 1 ep

Notable quotes

“we're a believer that we have just entered into a massive bull market in gold. And the underlying fundamental reasons for that are the fact that over the last 15 years, ever since the global financial crisis, we've printed so much money.”

Leigh Goehring · Leigh Goehring: Gold's "Massive Bull Market" Just Starting; Uranium and Copper Outlook

“if I were to use that same valuation methodology today, I can come up with gold anywhere between $15,000 to $25,000.”

Leigh Goehring · Leigh Goehring: Gold's "Massive Bull Market" Just Starting; Uranium and Copper Outlook

“The Bible of Copper Bowls is the June 2022 huge paper put out by S&P Global...they say, oh, we believe that copper demand is going to go from 25 million pounds in 2023, up to 50 million pounds in 2035.”

Leigh Goehring · Leigh Goehring: Gold's "Massive Bull Market" Just Starting; Uranium and Copper Outlook

“Kazataprom had to lower their 2025 production estimates by, I think, like 11 million pounds or something like that”

Leigh Goehring · Leigh Goehring: Gold's "Massive Bull Market" Just Starting; Uranium and Copper Outlook

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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