▶The AI application market is experiencing extreme disruption and high turnover, evidenced by the fact that 27 out of 40 companies on the Intelligent Application 40 list were replaced in a single year [18, 29].Apr 2026
▶Madrona Venture Group is actively investing from its tenth fund, a $770 million vehicle focused on early-stage companies [9, 21].Apr 2026
▶Echodyne, a Madrona portfolio company, is providing its advanced radar technology for security at all World Cup stadiums this year [8, 10].Apr 2026
▶Anthropic has a deep, ongoing collaboration with Goldman Sachs, with engineers embedded for over nine months to build a new wealth management onboarding system [11, 16].Apr 2026
▶McIlwain highlights a major market dichotomy: established public software companies like ServiceNow and Atlassian trade at record low multiples, while private AI companies raise capital at extremely high valuations [1, 17].Apr 2026
▶He identifies a critical 'DPI problem' where venture capital LPs lack cash returns [15], while simultaneously predicting that a near-term increase in M&A will begin to solve this liquidity issue [3].Apr 2026
▶He believes the foundational model lab category is overfunded and overvalued [23], yet also recounts his firm's decision to pass on investing in a leader in that category, OpenAI, at what was a lower valuation [28].
▶He notes that large private equity firms like Thoma Bravo are struggling after acquiring SaaS companies at high prices [2], which contrasts with the hyper-growth narrative of his own firm's portfolio companies like Echodyne, which grew bookings from $20M to $340M in three years [27].Apr 2026
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