The U.S. labor force is experiencing zero growth in the current year, a situation attributed to demographics and immigration policy.

François Trahan predicts that U.S. GDP growth could reach 3% to 4% in 2026, driven by fiscal stimulus, hyperscaler CapEx, and the lagged effects of interest rate cuts.

François Trahan predicts that rising energy and commodity prices could translate into core inflation by the fall, which would negatively impact market multiples.

François Trahan of BMO Capital Markets believes the biggest risk to the current bullish market consensus is a resurgence in inflation.

Forward earnings growth for the S&P 500 is currently at 29%, a level only previously seen after the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.