Liz Lopato

Technology and business analyst specializing in AI infrastructure and emerging markets.

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Key positions and views

CoreWeave's rise is a case study in strategic pivoting and financial innovation, moving from a pure crypto-mining operation to a key AI infrastructure player by pioneering GPU-backed loans.

The current AI hardware boom is characterized by deep, symbiotic relationships between chip designers (NVIDIA) and infrastructure providers (CoreWeave), involving direct investment, capacity guarantees, and shared financial risk.

The immense capital required for AI is leading to complex and potentially opaque financial arrangements, such as the circular flow of funds between Microsoft and its strategic investment, OpenAI.

Prediction markets are in a state of regulatory flux, with weakening federal oversight from agencies like the SEC creating a power vacuum that both states and other federal bodies like the CFTC are trying to fill.

The competitive landscape for cloud computing is bifurcating, with established giants building custom silicon to control costs while a new class of specialized 'NeoClouds' focuses on providing massive scale with cutting-edge hardware from partners like NVIDIA.

Podcast consensus on Lopato

Points of consensus

▶Liz Lopato consistently highlights the deeply symbiotic and multi-faceted relationship between NVIDIA and CoreWeave, pointing to NVIDIA's direct investment, its purchase of CoreWeave's IPO shares, and its guarantee to buy back excess compute capacity.Feb 2026

▶She emphasizes that CoreWeave's business model has been innovative and influential, particularly in pioneering GPU-collateralized loans, a model now being replicated by other 'NeoCloud' companies like Lambda and Crusoe.Feb 2026

▶Her analysis frequently points to the immense capital flows and complex financial arrangements defining the current AI boom, such as the $22 billion OpenAI-CoreWeave contract and the described '$13 billion circular financing' between Microsoft and OpenAI.Feb 2026

▶Lopato's commentary on prediction markets consistently focuses on the tension between industry ambition and regulatory hurdles, citing the SEC's diminished power, the CFTC's conflict with state governors, and strategic moves by companies like FanDuel and DraftKings.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Lopato's claims outline a market tension between established cloud giants (Microsoft, Amazon) and emerging 'NeoClouds' (CoreWeave), with the former developing custom chips to lower costs while also being major customers of the latter for overflow capacity.Feb 2026

▶She identifies a significant conflict in the regulatory space for prediction markets, highlighting a public dispute between Utah Governor Spencer Cox and CFTC Commissioner Mike Selig over jurisdictional control.Apr 2026

▶Her analysis points to a strategic divergence in the gaming industry, where major players like FanDuel and DraftKings have left the American Gaming Association, reportedly to pursue their own prediction market ventures independently.Apr 2026

▶Lopato describes a potential vulnerability in the AI compute market, noting that while current demand is overwhelmingly for model training, the long-term value may shift to inference, a dynamic that could alter the competitive landscape.Feb 2026

Key themes

▶The NVIDIA-CoreWeave SymbiosisFeb 2026

Lopato details a deeply intertwined strategic relationship where NVIDIA is not just a supplier to CoreWeave but also an investor, a customer for excess capacity, and a partner in financial innovation. CoreWeave's success is directly linked to NVIDIA's support, from pioneering GPU-backed loans to securing over 250,000 NVIDIA chips.

Investors should view CoreWeave's risk profile as intrinsically linked to NVIDIA's market position and strategic priorities, making their relationship a critical factor in any valuation.

▶Circular Capital Flows in Big Tech AIFeb 2026

This theme focuses on the massive, often circular, financial arrangements funding the AI boom. Lopato specifically highlights Microsoft's approximate $13 billion investment in OpenAI, which is then paid back to Microsoft for computing services, creating a self-reinforcing loop of capital and resource allocation.

Analysts should scrutinize the stated revenue and investment figures in the AI sector, as these circular arrangements can inflate the appearance of organic market growth and customer traction.

▶The Rise of 'NeoClouds' and Alternative FinancingFeb 2026

Lopato identifies a new category of specialized cloud providers, the 'NeoClouds,' which includes CoreWeave, Lambda, and Crusoe. These companies are distinguished by their focus on high-demand AI compute and their innovative use of private credit and hardware assets (NVIDIA GPUs) as collateral to finance rapid expansion.

The success of the NeoCloud financing model suggests a new avenue for capital-intensive tech infrastructure growth, potentially disrupting traditional venture capital and public market funding pathways.

▶Prediction Markets at a Regulatory CrossroadsApr 2026

Lopato portrays the prediction market sector as a battleground of regulatory conflict and corporate maneuvering. She points to the SEC's declining enforcement, a federal vs. state power struggle over regulation, and major gaming companies leaving industry groups to launch their own platforms.

The future of prediction markets in the U.S. will be determined less by technology and more by the outcomes of these legal and jurisdictional battles, creating significant regulatory risk for businesses in the space.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2021

Lopato claims that CoreWeave generated all of its revenue from mining Ethereum, indicating a business model entirely focused on cryptocurrency prior to its pivot to AI compute.

Post-2021 Pivot

CoreWeave pioneered a novel financing method using NVIDIA GPUs as collateral for loans, enabling it to acquire massive amounts of hardware for AI compute services. This model was later adopted by other 'NeoCloud' companies.

March (Year Unspecified)

NVIDIA solidified its strategic partnership with CoreWeave by investing in the company and purchasing shares during its IPO, as reported by Lopato.

Recent Past

Lopato details several major deals defining the current AI landscape, including OpenAI's $22 billion contract with CoreWeave and Microsoft's $13 billion circular investment arrangement with OpenAI.

Recent Past

Lopato reports on emerging tensions in the prediction market space, including a public dispute between the Governor of Utah and a CFTC Commissioner, and the departure of FanDuel and DraftKings from the American Gaming Association.

Current

Lopato notes that CoreWeave lowered its annual revenue forecast from a high of $5.35 billion to $5.15 billion, attributing the adjustment to delays from a third-party data center developer.

Suggested prompts

How sustainable is the 'NeoCloud' business model if the primary demand for AI compute shifts from training to inference? &nearr;What are the systemic risks posed by the GPU-collateralized loan structures pioneered by CoreWeave, especially in the event of a downturn in GPU value or demand? &nearr;How does the circular financing arrangement between Microsoft and OpenAI impact traditional valuation metrics for both companies? &nearr;Based on the conflict between state and federal regulators, what is the most likely legal framework to emerge for prediction markets in the United States? &nearr;

Key concepts

CoreWeave 1 ep NVIDIA 1 ep AI Infrastructure Financing 1 ep Prediction Markets 1 ep Microsoft 1 ep OpenAI 1 ep NeoClouds 1 ep Regulatory Oversight (SEC/CFTC) 1 ep Cryptocurrency (Ethereum Mining) 1 ep

Notable quotes

“Microsoft has invested approximately $13 billion in OpenAI, which in turn pays Microsoft a similar amount for computing services, in what is described as a circular financing arrangement.”

Liz Lopato · The company at the heart of the AI bubble | Decoder

“NVIDIA has guaranteed it will purchase any of CoreWeave's excess compute capacity that is not sold to other customers.”

Liz Lopato · The company at the heart of the AI bubble | Decoder

“CoreWeave pioneered a type of loan that uses NVIDIA GPUs as collateral.”

Liz Lopato · The company at the heart of the AI bubble | Decoder

“OpenAI has a $22 billion contract with CoreWeave.”

Liz Lopato · The company at the heart of the AI bubble | Decoder

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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