Gene Soroka

Expert analyst on Port of Los Angeles operations, global trade, and supply chain logistics.

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Key positions and views

The Port of Los Angeles serves as a real-time barometer for the health of the US economy and its international trade relationships, with its cargo volumes directly reflecting geopolitical tensions.

US-China tariff policies have caused severe and likely permanent damage to specific US export sectors, particularly agriculture, by forcing trade flows to be rerouted to other nations like Brazil and Argentina.

Strategic adoption of technology, including AI and automation, is essential for modern port efficiency and can lead to overall job growth by increasing capacity, challenging fears of job displacement.

Global supply chains are extremely vulnerable to geopolitical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions can cause immediate and significant price inflation for energy and consumer goods.

Government policy interventions do not always produce their intended economic outcomes, as demonstrated by a trade truce failing to restore soybean exports and a Jones Act waiver failing to lower gas prices.

Podcast consensus on Soroka

Points of consensus

▶The Port of Los Angeles is a critical economic engine for both the Southern California region and the United States as a whole, handling immense value and supporting a significant number of jobs.May 2026

▶Geopolitical events, specifically US-China tariffs and conflict in the Middle East, have immediate, measurable, and severe negative impacts on cargo volumes, commodity prices, and supply chain stability.

▶The US agricultural export sector, particularly soybeans, has suffered a long-term structural blow from the trade war with China, with trade flows being permanently rerouted to South American competitors.May 2026

▶Technology, including AI and automation, is a key driver of efficiency and modernization at the port, improving operations without necessarily reducing the overall number of jobs.May 2026

Points of debate

▶Soroka's claims present a complex view of automation's impact on labor, noting that while the LA/Long Beach ports have a high automation rate, dock worker jobs have paradoxically increased by 21% over the past 12 years.May 2026

▶He highlights the unpredictable nature of government policy, where actions like a political truce with China failed to revive soybean exports and a waiver of the Jones Act did not decrease gasoline prices.May 2026

▶The data illustrates extreme volatility in trade volumes, which can plummet by 30% in a week due to tariffs but also surge to record highs of over one million container units during a temporary policy reprieve.May 2026

▶There is a tension between the port's goal of achieving zero emissions by 2030 and its vulnerability to global energy shocks, such as the Iran conflict, which caused a 50% spike in diesel prices.May 2026

Key themes

▶Geopolitical Fragility of Global Trade

Soroka details how specific geopolitical events, from US-China tariffs to conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, cause immediate and severe disruptions. These events directly impact cargo volumes, commodity prices, and employment at the Port of Los Angeles.

Investors should view port volume data as a high-frequency indicator of geopolitical stress, with downturns signaling broader economic and supply chain risks that may not yet be reflected in traditional economic reports.

▶The US-China Agricultural Trade ShiftMay 2026

Soroka highlights the dramatic collapse of US soybean exports to China, which dropped 90% nationally and 80% at the Port of LA. He explicitly states that Brazil and Argentina have replaced the US as primary suppliers, a shift not reversed by political truces.

This suggests a structural, not cyclical, change in global agricultural trade flows, posing a long-term challenge to the US farm economy and its associated logistics networks that short-term policy tweaks may not solve.

▶Technology as an Efficiency DriverMay 2026

Soroka emphasizes the role of technology, particularly AI and automation, in modernizing port operations. He cites an AI-driven truck reservation system that boosted gate utilization from 50% to 75% and the use of digital twins for infrastructure management.

The Port of Los Angeles serves as a case study for how targeted tech implementation can yield significant operational gains, suggesting high ROI for logistics tech investments even in legacy industries.

▶The Paradox of Automation and LaborMay 2026

Soroka presents a counter-intuitive narrative on automation. While the LA/Long Beach ports have a high automation rate compared to the global average, he claims that the number of dock worker jobs has actually increased by 21% over the last 12 years.

This challenges the simplistic 'robots replace jobs' narrative, indicating that increased throughput and overall port growth driven by efficiency gains can create more jobs than automation displaces, a key point for labor market analysis.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Past 12 Years

Despite increased automation, the number of dock worker jobs at the Port of Los Angeles increased by 21%.

2019-Q4

Following the imposition of tariffs, business at the Port of Los Angeles dropped by approximately 16%.

October of last year

A political truce was negotiated between the US and China, but Soroka observed no subsequent increase in soybean exports from the Port of Los Angeles.

February 28th

All shipments of retail goods from Asia to the Middle East and East Africa ceased following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

2025-05

In the first week of May, after tariffs on Chinese goods were raised to 145%, cargo volume at the Port of Los Angeles dropped by approximately 30%.

2025-07

During a temporary softening of tariff policy, the Port of Los Angeles processed a record volume of more than one million container units in a single month.

Suggested prompts

How has the structural shift of China's soybean sourcing to South America impacted US port infrastructure investment and agricultural logistics? &nearr;What are the secondary economic effects of a 30% cargo volume drop at the Port of Los Angeles on the one million related jobs in Southern California? &nearr;To what extent can AI-driven efficiency gains, like the truck reservation system, offset the economic damage caused by geopolitical trade disruptions? &nearr;What specific factors allowed dock worker employment to grow by 21% alongside a 25% terminal automation rate, and is this trend sustainable in other ports? &nearr;

Key concepts

Port of Los Angeles 1 ep US-China Trade 1 ep Geopolitics 1 ep Supply Chain Logistics 1 ep Automation & Technology 1 ep Energy Markets 1 ep Soybean Trade 1 ep Tariffs 1 ep Labor & Employment 1 ep Economic Impact 1 ep

Notable quotes

“About a billion dollars a day of cargo moves through this port, imports, exports combined.”

Gene Soroka · 213. Ups and downs at the Port of Los Angeles

“you've seen a drop in soybeans, 90 percent in trade with China last year alone. Our business here at the port, we saw an 80% drop in soybean shipments to Asia.”

Gene Soroka · 213. Ups and downs at the Port of Los Angeles

“we saw the first week of May, our cargo volume dropped coming into the port of Los Angeles by about 30 percent.”

Gene Soroka · 213. Ups and downs at the Port of Los Angeles

“Now the price of gas in Southern California is up 35%. The price of diesel is up 50%.”

Gene Soroka · 213. Ups and downs at the Port of Los Angeles

Report last updated: May 5, 2026

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