Brad

Technology and finance analyst and commentator

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The current AI boom is defined by a massive, multi-trillion dollar infrastructure build-out that is unprecedented in scale, dwarfing previous technology investment cycles.

Stablecoins have achieved significant scale as a parallel financial system, settling trillions in value and demonstrating a powerful product-market fit outside the control of traditional banking institutions.

The United States' economic policy toward China is at a crossroads, torn between a complete decoupling favored by national security hawks and a more pragmatic approach of targeted competition favored by tech industry leaders.

State-level regulations in places like Colorado and California are creating a complex and potentially litigious environment for AI developers, establishing new liabilities for algorithmic discrimination and emotional harm.

NVIDIA is the central and indispensable company in the AI supercycle, with financial projections that indicate sustained, massive growth in revenue and free cash flow over the next several years.

Podcast consensus on Brad

Points of consensus

▶Brad consistently argues that the technology sector is undergoing an unprecedented capital expenditure cycle, citing projections of $3 trillion for AI infrastructure over five years and a surge in 'MAG5' spending from $156 billion to $379 billion in the current year.Feb 2026

▶He repeatedly highlights the explosive growth of the stablecoin market, noting its supply has grown to over $300 billion since 2021, transaction settlements have surpassed $18 trillion, and key issuers are now major buyers of U.S. Treasuries.Feb 2026

▶Across his commentary, Brad emphasizes NVIDIA's central role in the AI boom, pointing to sell-side forecasts of revenue growing to $350 billion and projections of $450 billion in free cash flow over the next three years.Feb 2026

▶Brad identifies a significant trend of emerging, state-level AI regulation that creates new liabilities for tech companies, specifically referencing the Colorado AI Act's rules on 'algorithmic discrimination' and California's SB 243, which allows lawsuits for emotional harm from chatbots.Feb 2026

Points of debate

▶Brad presents a central tension in US-China policy, outlining the conflicting views of 'national security hawks' who advocate for complete economic decoupling versus 'tech pragmatists' like Jensen Huang and Tim Cook who favor targeted competition and re-onshoring.Feb 2026

▶He highlights the immense financial scale of the AI boom, with private funding rounds for OpenAI and Anthropic dwarfing recent tech IPOs, while simultaneously pointing to the significant legal and financial risks posed by new AI liability laws in Colorado and California.Feb 2026

▶Brad describes the massive potential of AI, citing OpenAI's partnership with Broadcom and trillion-dollar CapEx implications, but also notes China's significant talent advantage, referencing Jensen Huang's statement that 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China.Feb 2026

▶He details the rapid growth and scale of the stablecoin ecosystem, but contrasts its current capabilities with traditional finance, noting that Visa and MasterCard can process over 10 times more transactions per second than the Solana and Ethereum blockchains combined.

Key themes

▶The AI Infrastructure SupercycleFeb 2026

Brad argues that the world is in the early stages of a multi-trillion dollar capital investment cycle for AI infrastructure. He supports this with data on the 'MAG5' tech companies' forecasted CapEx, NVIDIA's revenue growth, and OpenAI's hardware partnerships.

This theme suggests that the primary investment opportunity is currently in the foundational hardware and infrastructure layers of AI, rather than in application-level companies, as hyperscalers absorb the initial compute build-out.

▶Stablecoins as a Parallel Financial System

Brad details the explosive, multi-trillion dollar growth of the stablecoin market, framing it as a new financial rail operating outside traditional banking. He highlights its scale through transaction volume, total supply, and its impact on the U.S. Treasury market, while also noting lobbying efforts by banks to curtail its growth.

The rapid, large-scale adoption of stablecoins indicates a significant global demand for dollar-denominated digital assets and payment systems, creating both a major disruption for traditional finance and a complex new challenge for regulators.

▶US-China Economic and Technological StrategyFeb 2026

Brad outlines the critical strategic debate within the U.S. regarding its economic relationship with China. He contrasts the 'hawk' position of full decoupling with the 'tech pragmatist' view of targeted competition, using tariffs and China's AI talent pool as key examples of the complex trade-offs involved.

Investors and analysts must monitor this internal US policy debate, as a shift towards either full decoupling or strategic competition will have profoundly different impacts on global supply chains, tech development, and market access.

▶The Emerging Patchwork of AI Regulation

Brad highlights the proactive and potentially burdensome nature of new AI regulations, particularly at the state level in the U.S. He points to new laws in Colorado and California that establish liability for 'algorithmic discrimination' and emotional harm, creating a complex legal landscape for frontier model developers.

The focus on state-level legislation suggests that AI companies will face a fragmented and evolving compliance environment, increasing legal costs and potentially slowing the deployment of certain AI applications in key markets.

Source episodes

Timeline

2021

Brad marks this as the starting point for the explosive growth of dollar-backed stablecoins, which had a supply of 'nearly zero' at the time.

2023

Serves as a baseline year for CapEx, with Brad noting the 'MAG5' tech companies spent $156 billion.

Current Year

Brad identifies a massive acceleration in AI spending, with 'MAG5' CapEx forecasted to more than double to $379 billion and NVIDIA's annual revenue projected at $200 billion.

2025

Brad projects this year will be the 'peak percentage' for the current investment cycle, with the 'MAG5' spending approximately 66% of their operating free cash flow on CapEx.

Next 2-3 Years

Citing NVIDIA's CEO, Brad asserts a 'near-zero probability' of an AI compute glut during this period as hyperscalers absorb the initial infrastructure build-out.

July 4, 2026

Brad identifies this as the national deadline for the U.S. Treasury to fund and establish all initial accounts for the 'Invest America Act'.

Suggested prompts

How does Brad reconcile the projected $3 trillion AI infrastructure spend with the emerging state-level liability laws that could stifle innovation and deployment? &nearr;What are the second-order effects of Circle and Tether becoming two of the largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries, and how might this influence future crypto regulation? &nearr;Based on Brad's analysis, what specific industries are most at risk from a US-China economic decoupling versus a strategy of targeted competition? &nearr;Does Brad's bullish outlook on NVIDIA's cash flow adequately account for the risk of China developing its own competitive AI hardware ecosystem? &nearr;

Key concepts

AI Capital Expenditure (CapEx) 1 ep Stablecoins 1 ep US-China Relations 1 ep NVIDIA 1 ep AI Regulation 1 ep OpenAI 2 ep Cryptocurrency Regulation 1 ep MAG5 Tech Companies 1 ep Tariffs 1 ep Investment Policy 1 ep

Notable quotes

“The total capital expenditure for AI infrastructure is projected to be approximately $3 trillion over the next five years.”

Brad · AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner

“The total value of transactions settled using stablecoins has surpassed $18 trillion.”

Brad · AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner

“Recent private funding rounds for OpenAI and Anthropic are larger than any public tech IPO in the last five years.”

Brad · China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner

“The Colorado AI Act, which has been signed into law, establishes liability for frontier model developers for 'algorithmic discrimination' across 12 protected classes, including limited English proficiency and reproductive health.”

Brad · AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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