Michel Mamet

Manager of the GRAAF Fund

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The market is significantly underestimating the economic impact of the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which he believes is more severe than the oil embargoes of the 1970s.

Australia is becoming an increasingly hostile environment for investment due to government intervention, unfavorable tax policies, and a trend of major domestic resource companies deploying capital overseas.

The ESG movement has created a long-term bull market for traditional energy by causing massive underinvestment across the value chain, leading to a favorable supply-demand imbalance.

International resource markets offer superior investment opportunities (better value, quality, and depth) compared to the Australian market, which is characterized by a thin mid-cap space and inflated valuations.

Gold is in a sustained bull market driven by fundamental factors like geopolitical risk, high global debt, and accelerated purchasing by central banks, making short-term sell-offs mere liquidity events.

Podcast consensus on Mamet

Points of consensus

▶Mamet consistently argues that Australia is an increasingly unattractive destination for investment capital, citing detrimental government policies, inflated domestic valuations, and a trend of major local resource companies investing abroad.Jun 2026

▶He posits that the traditional energy sector is in a favorable long-term position due to structural underinvestment caused by the ESG movement, creating a supply-demand imbalance.Jun 2026

▶Mamet identifies geopolitical risk and high levels of global indebtedness as the two primary macro drivers for the current bull market in gold, which he notes has been amplified by significant central bank purchasing since 2022.Jun 2026

▶He believes international resource markets, particularly in the mid-cap space, offer superior quality, depth, and value compared to Australia's market, which he views as thin and overvalued.Jun 2026

Points of debate

▶Mamet's strong assertion that the market is 'massively underpricing' the economic impacts of the Strait of Hormuz crisis is a contrarian view that would be debated by those who believe risk is already factored into energy prices.Jun 2026

▶His prediction that recent Australian tax policy changes will cause a 'halt in investment' is a bearish forecast that directly contradicts the Australian government's official economic narrative and would be contested by domestic policy proponents.Jun 2026

▶The claim that Australia's $4 trillion superannuation capital pool primarily serves to inflate domestic valuations could be debated by local market participants who see it as a source of stability and liquidity.Jun 2026

▶His dismissal of the government's stated rationale for negative gearing policy changes as 'false' represents a direct challenge to the policy's public justification and would be disputed by its architects.Jun 2026

Key themes

▶Australian Capital Flight and Policy RiskJun 2026

Mamet expresses a deeply pessimistic view of Australia as an investment destination. He argues that government interventions, such as profit caps on energy companies and tax policy changes, deter private capital, while the trend of major miners like BHP and Rio Tinto investing abroad signals a deteriorating environment.

Investors following Mamet's thesis would likely underweight Australian-domiciled resource companies in favor of international peers, anticipating underperformance due to perceived sovereign risk and capital outflow.

▶Geopolitics as a Primary Driver for Energy and GoldJun 2026

A core theme is that geopolitical events are the key catalyst for commodity markets. He views the Strait of Hormuz crisis as a more significant event than historical oil embargoes and the Russia-Ukraine war as the trigger for unprecedented central bank gold buying, positioning these assets as essential hedges.

This perspective suggests that traditional fundamental analysis is insufficient, and that portfolio allocation in the resources sector must be heavily weighted towards geopolitical risk assessment.

▶Structural Underinvestment in Traditional ResourcesJun 2026

Mamet contends that the ESG movement has led to a significant, multi-year underinvestment across the traditional energy value chain. This has created a structural supply shortage that benefits assets like oil, natural gas, and uranium, independent of short-term economic cycles.

This theme points to a long-term investment opportunity in non-renewable energy sectors, based on the idea that years of constrained capital expenditure have created a durable supply-demand imbalance.

▶Comparative Advantage of International MarketsJun 2026

Mamet consistently contrasts the Australian resource market unfavorably with international markets. He characterizes the Australian market as having a 'thin' mid-cap space and inflated valuations due to the large domestic superannuation pool, while international markets offer greater depth, quality, and more attractive pricing.

For resource investors, this implies that a global mandate is necessary to find the best risk-reward opportunities, as a purely domestic Australian focus may lead to lower quality assets at higher prices.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

1973 & 1979

Mamet uses the oil embargoes of these years as a historical benchmark to argue that the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has a potentially larger impact on energy markets.

2018

Identified by Mamet as the starting point for the third major gold bull market since the 1970s.

2022

Mamet points to the start of the Russia-Ukraine war as a major catalyst that prompted central banks to increase their gold purchases to 2.5 times historical volumes.

Recent Period

Mamet notes a recent sell-off in gold, which he attributes to a liquidity squeeze forcing countries like Turkey to sell reserves. He also critiques recent Australian tax policy changes made during this time.

Current Period

Mamet assesses that the market is 'massively underpricing' the impacts of the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis. In response, his GRAAF Fund increased its energy exposure from 15% to over 20% of NAV.

Suggested prompts

How does Mamet's bearish outlook on Australia's investment climate compare with the actual performance and capital flows in the ASX resource sector? &nearr;What specific events or policy reversals would need to occur to invalidate Mamet's thesis on structural underinvestment in traditional energy? &nearr;To what extent has the market repriced the risks in the Strait of Hormuz since Mamet's assessment, and was his 'massively underpricing' claim accurate in hindsight? &nearr;How does the GRAAF Fund's performance and allocation shifts correlate with Mamet's stated macro views on gold, energy, and Australian capital flight? &nearr;

Key concepts

Australian Investment Climate 1 ep Energy Markets 1 ep Gold & Precious Metals 1 ep Geopolitical Risk 1 ep GRAAF Fund Strategy 1 ep Strait of Hormuz 1 ep Resource Company Valuation 1 ep Central Bank Gold Buying 1 ep ESG Impact on Investment 1 ep

Notable quotes

“If you look at the Iran crisis, if you look at the oil embargo in the '70s, so 1973, 1979, this multiple's larger in terms of impact.”

Michel Mamet · The 3 Trades That'll Win the Next Decade (Michel Mamet)

“And so when I look at Rio, BHP, Santos, Woodside, The message is consistent and in fact it's not consistent. It's actually, actually getting worse.”

Michel Mamet · The 3 Trades That'll Win the Next Decade (Michel Mamet)

“we had that major catalyst in '22 with Ukraine, Russia, and then that led to obviously elevated central bank buying at about 2.5x the historic volumes of gold purchases.”

Michel Mamet · The 3 Trades That'll Win the Next Decade (Michel Mamet)

“Michel Mamet believes international resource markets are cheaper than Australia's because Australia's $4 trillion superannuation capital pool inflates the valuations of domestic opportunities.”

Michel Mamet · The 3 Trades That'll Win the Next Decade (Michel Mamet)

Report last updated: Jun 10, 2026

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