Menaka Doshi

Expert analyst on Indian politics, economics, and geopolitics.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The BJP's consolidation of power across India is nearly complete, with only the South remaining outside its stronghold, which significantly increases the likelihood the party could rewrite the constitution.

The Modi government strategically suppressed fuel prices to manage public opinion before elections and will almost certainly allow them to rise afterward, triggering significant inflation.

India's foreign trade policy is a pragmatic balancing act, seeking deals with Western allies to counter US tariff pressure while simultaneously trying to mend trade relations with China due to manufacturing dependencies.

The BJP's victory in West Bengal was aided by a 'mass, large-scale disenfranchisement' of Muslim voters, a move that also crippled the national opposition's ability to form a united front.

India is facing an imminent energy crisis that will escalate from harming industrial activity to hurting household consumption, posing a significant threat to economic growth.

Podcast consensus on Doshi

Points of consensus

▶The Modi government deliberately kept retail prices for petrol, diesel, and cooking gas stable ahead of elections to shield consumers from rising global energy costs.May 2026

▶Following its victory in West Bengal, the BJP has consolidated political control over East India, adding to its existing strongholds in the North, West, and Central regions.May 2026

▶The removal of a large number of names from voter rolls in West Bengal is believed to have disproportionately disenfranchised the Muslim community, which was expected to vote against the BJP.May 2026

▶India is actively pursuing new trade deals with partners like the EU, UK, and Australia to counter US tariff pressure and diversify its export markets.May 2026

Points of debate

▶Doshi's analysis presents a tension in India's foreign policy, which simultaneously seeks closer trade ties with Western partners (EU, UK, US) while also attempting to mend trade relations with a hostile China due to heavy manufacturing dependence.May 2026

▶A contrast exists between the Modi government's ambitious long-term goal of transforming India into a developed nation by 2047 and Doshi's immediate-term warnings of an energy crisis and rising inflation that could 'significantly cut into growth'.May 2026

▶Doshi highlights a conflict between the BJP's democratic mandate, evidenced by its expanding electoral map, and the integrity of the democratic process itself, citing the 'mass, large-scale disenfranchisement' of minority voters in a key election.

▶There is an implicit contrast between India's 'fairly transactional' relationship with the United States, focused on market access, and its dependent, necessity-driven trade relationship with China.May 2026

Key themes

▶BJP's Consolidation of PowerMay 2026

Doshi outlines the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) expanding political dominance across India, particularly its victory in West Bengal which secured control over East India. This growing power weakens the national opposition and, if it continues, significantly improves the party's chances of being able to rewrite the nation's constitution.

Investors should monitor the BJP's performance in key state elections, like the upcoming one in Uttar Pradesh, as further consolidation of power could lead to major constitutional and policy shifts with long-term market implications.

▶Economic Headwinds and Political InterventionMay 2026

Doshi details the Modi government's strategy of artificially suppressing fuel prices before elections to manage public opinion, a move she predicts will be reversed post-election, triggering significant inflation. This is compounded by a looming energy crisis that is already harming industrial activity and is expected to soon impact household consumption and overall economic growth.

Analysts should anticipate a post-election spike in Indian inflation and potential energy-related disruptions to supply chains, as politically-motivated price controls are unwound.

▶India's Pragmatic Foreign and Trade PolicyMay 2026

Doshi characterizes India's foreign policy as a balancing act. The country is pursuing trade deals with the EU, UK, and Australia to counter US tariff pressure and support its export sector. Simultaneously, it is attempting to improve trade with China, despite a hostile relationship, because its manufacturing sector is heavily reliant on Chinese imports and inputs.

India's dual-track approach of engaging Western partners while managing its dependency on China suggests that its geopolitical alignment will remain flexible and driven by economic necessity rather than rigid alliances.

▶Electoral Integrity and DemographicsMay 2026

Doshi highlights serious concerns about the electoral process, specifically citing the removal of 9 million voters in West Bengal. This action is reported to have disproportionately affected the Muslim community, which was expected to vote for the opposition, raising questions about the fairness of the BJP's victory.

The alleged targeting of specific demographic groups in the electoral process represents a significant political risk, potentially leading to social unrest and impacting stability in key regions.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Trump Administration

Doshi notes that during this period, India faced significant trade pressure, including a 50% tariff on its exports to the United States.

Pre-Election Period

According to Doshi, the Modi government actively shielded consumers from rising global energy costs by preventing retail price increases for petrol, diesel, and cooking gas.

Recent Elections

The BJP defeated the 15-year incumbent Trinamul Congress in West Bengal, a victory Doshi claims was marred by the disenfranchisement of 9 million voters, disproportionately Muslims. This win gave the BJP control of East India and weakened the national opposition.

Immediate Post-Election (Forecast)

Doshi predicts the government will now allow fuel prices to increase, leading to a significant rise in inflation.

Near Future (Forecast)

Doshi warns that India's energy crisis, already impacting industry, will 'very soon' begin to harm household consumption and cut into economic growth.

Upcoming Year

Doshi identifies the state election in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is defending a two-term incumbency, as the most critical political contest in India.

Suggested prompts

How does Menaka Doshi assess the relationship between the Modi government's pre-election economic policies and its post-election political latitude? &nearr;What are the primary internal and external pressures shaping India's current trade strategy, according to Doshi's analysis? &nearr;Based on Doshi's claims, what is the long-term risk to India's secular constitution posed by the BJP's continued electoral success? &nearr;How does Doshi connect the specific outcomes of state-level elections, like in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, to the broader consolidation of national power by the BJP? &nearr;

Key concepts

West Bengal Election 2 ep BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) 2 ep Energy Policy & Prices 2 ep Trade Policy 2 ep India-US Relations 2 ep Inflation 2 ep Uttar Pradesh Election 2 ep India-China Relations 2 ep Constitutional Change 1 ep

Notable quotes

“if he's able to win enough power at the state and central level, then the BJP's ability to rewrite the Constitution, those chances improve significantly.”

Menaka Doshi · Modi Is More Powerful Than Ever — Even as India’s Economy Strains | Big Take Asia

“We're staring at an energy crisis that could significantly cut into growth. Right now, it's hurting industrial activity. Very soon, it will start hurting household consumption.”

Menaka Doshi · Modi Is More Powerful Than Ever — Even as India’s Economy Strains | Big Take

“This mass, large-scale disenfranchisement is said to have disproportionately impacted the Muslim community, a community whose votes were expected to go in favor of Mamta Banerjee and against the BJP”

Menaka Doshi · Modi Is More Powerful Than Ever — Even as India’s Economy Strains | Big Take

“Of course, now that the elections are done, we expect to see an increase in prices, and that's when you'll start to see inflation tick up significantly.”

Menaka Doshi · Modi Is More Powerful Than Ever — Even as India’s Economy Strains | Big Take

Report last updated: Jun 10, 2026

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