The BJP's consolidation of power across India is nearly complete, with only the South remaining outside its stronghold, which significantly increases the likelihood the party could rewrite the constitution.
The Modi government strategically suppressed fuel prices to manage public opinion before elections and will almost certainly allow them to rise afterward, triggering significant inflation.
India's foreign trade policy is a pragmatic balancing act, seeking deals with Western allies to counter US tariff pressure while simultaneously trying to mend trade relations with China due to manufacturing dependencies.
The BJP's victory in West Bengal was aided by a 'mass, large-scale disenfranchisement' of Muslim voters, a move that also crippled the national opposition's ability to form a united front.
India is facing an imminent energy crisis that will escalate from harming industrial activity to hurting household consumption, posing a significant threat to economic growth.
Trump Administration
Doshi notes that during this period, India faced significant trade pressure, including a 50% tariff on its exports to the United States.
Pre-Election Period
According to Doshi, the Modi government actively shielded consumers from rising global energy costs by preventing retail price increases for petrol, diesel, and cooking gas.
Recent Elections
The BJP defeated the 15-year incumbent Trinamul Congress in West Bengal, a victory Doshi claims was marred by the disenfranchisement of 9 million voters, disproportionately Muslims. This win gave the BJP control of East India and weakened the national opposition.
Immediate Post-Election (Forecast)
Doshi predicts the government will now allow fuel prices to increase, leading to a significant rise in inflation.
Near Future (Forecast)
Doshi warns that India's energy crisis, already impacting industry, will 'very soon' begin to harm household consumption and cut into economic growth.
Upcoming Year
Doshi identifies the state election in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is defending a two-term incumbency, as the most critical political contest in India.
▶BJP's Consolidation of PowerMay 2026
Doshi outlines the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) expanding political dominance across India, particularly its victory in West Bengal which secured control over East India. This growing power weakens the national opposition and, if it continues, significantly improves the party's chances of being able to rewrite the nation's constitution.
Investors should monitor the BJP's performance in key state elections, like the upcoming one in Uttar Pradesh, as further consolidation of power could lead to major constitutional and policy shifts with long-term market implications.
▶Economic Headwinds and Political InterventionMay 2026
Doshi details the Modi government's strategy of artificially suppressing fuel prices before elections to manage public opinion, a move she predicts will be reversed post-election, triggering significant inflation. This is compounded by a looming energy crisis that is already harming industrial activity and is expected to soon impact household consumption and overall economic growth.
Analysts should anticipate a post-election spike in Indian inflation and potential energy-related disruptions to supply chains, as politically-motivated price controls are unwound.
▶India's Pragmatic Foreign and Trade PolicyMay 2026
Doshi characterizes India's foreign policy as a balancing act. The country is pursuing trade deals with the EU, UK, and Australia to counter US tariff pressure and support its export sector. Simultaneously, it is attempting to improve trade with China, despite a hostile relationship, because its manufacturing sector is heavily reliant on Chinese imports and inputs.
India's dual-track approach of engaging Western partners while managing its dependency on China suggests that its geopolitical alignment will remain flexible and driven by economic necessity rather than rigid alliances.
▶Electoral Integrity and DemographicsMay 2026
Doshi highlights serious concerns about the electoral process, specifically citing the removal of 9 million voters in West Bengal. This action is reported to have disproportionately affected the Muslim community, which was expected to vote for the opposition, raising questions about the fairness of the BJP's victory.
The alleged targeting of specific demographic groups in the electoral process represents a significant political risk, potentially leading to social unrest and impacting stability in key regions.