Tony Yoseloff

Executive at Davidson Kempner and expert on absolute return and opportunistic credit strategies.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The rapid interest rate hike cycle that began in 2022 is the single most important driver of current opportunities in opportunistic credit.

Absolute return strategies are experiencing a fundamental revival due to a combination of higher rates and persistent market dispersion, restoring their value as return drivers.

Major European economies, particularly the UK suffering from Brexit's long-term effects and a struggling Germany, represent significant sources of investment opportunities born from distress.

US antitrust policy under the Biden administration has actively suppressed M&A activity, but a more accommodating regulatory environment is expected under the next presidential administration, which will unlock deals.

Real estate markets are structurally more vulnerable to rising interest rates than corporate markets, leading to a more severe and prolonged valuation correction.

Podcast consensus on Yoseloff

Points of consensus

▶Yoseloff consistently argues that the current high-interest-rate environment is the primary catalyst for a revival in opportunistic credit and absolute return strategies.Apr 2026

▶He views significant economic distress in European markets, specifically the post-Brexit UK and struggling German economy, as a key source of investment opportunities.Apr 2026

▶He maintains that market dispersion, not just interest rate levels, is a crucial and persistent driver of performance for absolute return strategies.Apr 2026

▶Yoseloff identifies a clear link between US political administrations and market dynamics, particularly how antitrust policy impacts M&A activity.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Yoseloff differentiates between predictable financial crises (like the GFC) and unpredictable 'black swan' events (like COVID-19), a viewpoint that debates the general predictability of market turmoil.

▶He contrasts the severe impact of rising rates on the real estate sector with the relative resilience of corporate markets, highlighting a divergence in how different asset classes handle monetary tightening.Apr 2026

▶His assertion that the US-Europe equity valuation gap is primarily due to tech sector concentration challenges other narratives that might focus on broader economic fundamentals or growth prospects.Apr 2026

▶Yoseloff's perspective on the Biden administration's antitrust policy as a major deterrent to M&A contrasts with his prediction that a future administration will be 'much more accommodating', setting up a debate on the future of US merger regulation.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Revival of Absolute Return StrategiesApr 2026

Yoseloff argues that after years of being seen merely as volatility dampeners in a zero-interest-rate environment, absolute return strategies are resurgent. He attributes this revival to the dual tailwinds of higher interest rates and, crucially, persistent market dispersion, which creates opportunities for alpha generation.

Investors should re-evaluate absolute return funds not just as portfolio diversifiers but as potentially significant return drivers in the current macroeconomic regime.

▶Opportunistic Credit in a High-Rate WorldApr 2026

The rapid increase in base interest rates since early 2022 is identified by Yoseloff as the primary driver of opportunities in opportunistic credit. This environment forces companies to deleverage, creating a need for capital that his firm's strategies, including longer-duration funds, are positioned to provide.

The shift from a borrower's market to a lender's market creates a favorable environment for credit-focused investors who can underwrite complex, less-liquid situations.

▶Global Distress as an Opportunity SetApr 2026

Yoseloff's worldview focuses on identifying investment opportunities arising from economic and political dislocation. He specifically points to the long-term struggles of the UK economy post-Brexit and the current difficulties in Germany as fertile ground for investment, alongside the firm's strategic expansion into Asia.

A global, multi-strategy approach allows investors to capitalize on idiosyncratic regional problems, turning macroeconomic headwinds in one area into alpha opportunities for a diversified portfolio.

▶The Impact of Policy and Regulation on MarketsApr 2026

Yoseloff emphasizes the tangible impact of government policy on investment opportunities, particularly in the M&A space. He views the Biden administration's tough antitrust stance as a significant brake on deal-making and predicts that a change in policy from the next administration will unlock a wave of activity.

Political and regulatory analysis is a critical component of investment strategy, as shifts in enforcement can dramatically alter the risk-reward calculus for corporate transactions.

Source episodes

Timeline

mid-1980s

Yoseloff notes the term 'absolute return' was coined by David Swenson of Yale as a more formal name for hedge fund strategies.

1998

According to Yoseloff, Davidson Kempner had approximately $1 billion in AUM and about 15 employees.

2010

Davidson Kempner expanded its global footprint by opening an office in Hong Kong to access Asian markets.

2011

Davidson Kempner launched its first private equity-style fund for opportunistic credit, targeting less liquid, longer-duration investments.

2022

Yoseloff identifies this year as the worst for fixed income in a century, marking a pivotal shift in the market environment.

Early 2022 - Mid 2023

Yoseloff pinpoints this 16-month period, during which the base interest rate rose from zero to over 5%, as the key driver of current opportunities in opportunistic credit.

Suggested prompts

How does Yoseloff's view on the persistence of market dispersion inform Davidson Kempner's long-term strategy for absolute return funds, especially if rates decline? &nearr;What specific types of opportunities does Yoseloff foresee in the German economy, and how might they differ from the distress caused by Brexit in the UK? &nearr;To what extent does the increasing use of Payment-in-Kind (PIK) interest in private credit create systemic risk, and how does Yoseloff's strategy account for this? &nearr;How might a change in the US presidential administration impact Yoseloff's M&A predictions, and what are the potential second-order effects on opportunistic credit markets? &nearr;

Key concepts

Opportunistic Credit 5 ep Absolute Return Strategies 4 ep Real Estate Markets 3 ep European Economy 3 ep Interest Rate Impact 3 ep Davidson Kempner Strategy 3 ep M&A and Antitrust 2 ep Market Crises & History 2 ep

Notable quotes

“The rapid increase of the base interest rate from zero to over 5% in the 16 months starting in early 2022 is the primary driver of current opportunities in opportunistic credit.”

Tony Yoseloff · The Absolute Return Revival with Tony Yoseloff | Masters in Business

“It's not totally clear what the new antitrust regime is going to be, but all signs are it's going to be much more accommodating to mergers.”

Tony Yoseloff · The Absolute Return Revival with Tony Yoseloff | Masters in Business

“Brexit has been detrimental to the UK economy, which has struggled for the past seven to eight years, partly due to a loss of human capital.”

Tony Yoseloff · The Absolute Return Revival with Tony Yoseloff | Masters in Business

“The year 2022 was the worst for fixed income in 100 years and possibly the worst in United States history.”

Tony Yoseloff · The Absolute Return Revival with Tony Yoseloff | Masters in Business

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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