▶Miles consistently argues that the venture capital industry's structure, particularly for large multi-stage funds, is misaligned with Limited Partner (LP) interests, citing mis-sized funds, excessive fees, and poor risk-adjusted returns [4, 5, 13, 23, 34].Mar 2026
▶He repeatedly emphasizes the critical importance of manager selection, highlighting that only a small fraction of VCs (top-decile) consistently outperform public markets and that picking skill is the dominant factor for success in early-stage investing [1, 2, 15, 22].Mar 2026
▶Miles's analysis points to a severe, ongoing liquidity and fundraising crisis in venture capital, referencing historical lows in fundraising, a moribund IPO market compared to past eras, and the underperformance of recent public offerings [3, 9, 24].Mar 2026
▶Across his claims, Miles identifies specific firms as exemplars of positive or negative behaviors, consistently praising Index Ventures for performance and discipline [25, 35, 38] and Union Square Ventures for liquidation strategy [36], while criticizing anonymous GPs for misleading LPs [5] or improper portfolio marking [40].
▶Miles's assertion that 90% of LPs should avoid venture capital [22] directly challenges the widespread industry narrative of VC as a necessary component of a diversified institutional portfolio.Mar 2026
▶His proposal that large growth-stage VC funds should charge low 'one and 10' fees [4] is a direct critique of the industry-standard 'two and 20' model, which is rarely contested publicly by LPs.Mar 2026
▶While the market is broadly bullish on AI, Miles expresses significant skepticism, predicting an AI bubble will pop [14], questioning the long-term independence of leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic [11], and highlighting OpenAI's massive burn rate [17].Mar 2026
▶Miles's calculation that a large multi-stage fund needs to generate nearly $800 billion in market cap to achieve a 4x return [34] presents a quantitative argument against the viability of the mega-fund model, a strategy pursued by many of the industry's most prominent firms.Mar 2026
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