Sarah Paine

Geopolitical analyst and historian specializing in Russian and Chinese foreign policy.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The Soviet Union's collapse was primarily driven by deep-seated economic and technological failures, exacerbated by unsustainable military spending on a two-front confrontation with NATO and China.

Russia has historically pursued a consistent grand strategy of weakening and containing China, using tactics ranging from territorial seizure and industrial sabotage to political manipulation.

The Sino-Soviet split was a pivotal event that fundamentally altered the Cold War's dynamics, creating a severe strategic and financial burden for the USSR while providing a decisive opening for U.S. diplomacy.

The end of the Cold War was not merely a collapse but was actively managed through careful diplomacy by leaders like George H.W. Bush and Helmut Kohl, which secured a peaceful transition and created a window for Eastern Europe's integration with the West.

Popular movements and individual agency, such as Poland's Solidarity and dissidents using the Helsinki Accords, played a critical role in delegitimizing and dismantling communist rule from within.

Podcast consensus on Paine

Points of consensus

▶Paine consistently argues that the Sino-Soviet split was a critical factor in the Cold War, forcing the USSR into a costly two-front military confrontation and allowing the U.S. to strategically 'gang up' on it with China.

▶Across both analyses, Paine emphasizes the severe, systemic economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union, citing its failure to innovate, its dependency on oil exports, and its unsustainable level of military spending as primary drivers of its collapse.

▶Paine repeatedly highlights the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict as a pivotal moment, noting in both sources that the USSR approached the U.S. to gauge its reaction to a potential nuclear or conventional strike on China's nuclear facilities.Apr 2026

▶A recurring point is the long-term trend of Soviet economic stagnation relative to the West, with Paine mentioning in both podcast discussions that Soviet growth rates lagged the U.S. by 1-2% for a decade leading up to 1985.

Points of debate

▶Paine presents multiple, non-exclusive theories for the Soviet collapse, creating a framework for debate. One theory credits Ronald Reagan's military buildup for bankrupting the USSR.

▶A second theory she discusses posits that Richard Nixon's strategic opening to China was the key factor, allowing the US and China to overextend the Soviet Union.Apr–Jun 2026

▶A third perspective Paine details focuses on internal decay, highlighting the systemic failures of the centrally planned economy and the delegitimizing effect of popular movements and dissidents utilizing the Helsinki Accords.

▶Paine also emphasizes the critical role of individual leadership, contrasting Mikhail Gorbachev's decision not to use force against uprisings in the Eastern Bloc with the actions of his predecessors, suggesting his specific policies were a decisive variable.

Key themes

▶The Inevitable Economic Collapse of the Soviet Union

Paine argues that the Soviet Union's demise was rooted in profound and systemic economic failures. These included the inability of its centrally planned economy to adopt key 20th-century technologies, a crippling dependence on oil exports for hard currency, and a defense budget that consumed an estimated 40-70% of its GNP.

Analysts should view states with highly concentrated economies and disproportionate military spending as possessing inherent structural fragility, regardless of their perceived military strength.

▶Russia's Historical Strategy of Weakening China

Paine details a long-term Russian foreign policy aimed at undermining and containing China's power. This strategy manifested through the seizure of vast Chinese territories in the 19th century, manipulating China's internal conflicts like the Civil War, stripping Manchuria of its industrial base after WWII, and using China as a proxy in the Korean War.

The modern 'no-limits' partnership between Russia and China should be analyzed through the lens of this deep-seated historical antagonism, suggesting potential limits and points of friction beneath the surface of their alignment.

▶The Sino-Soviet Split as a Decisive Geopolitical Factor

Paine identifies the conflict between the USSR and China as a game-changing development in the Cold War. It forced the Soviets to maintain a second, heavily militarized border, draining resources, and critically, it allowed the U.S. to pivot to a 'swing role,' playing the two communist powers against each other.

The strategic advantage gained by the U.S. from the Sino-Soviet split underscores the immense value of exploiting divisions between adversaries, a principle that remains central to modern great power competition.

▶The Role of Agency and Diplomacy in the Cold War's End

Beyond structural factors, Paine emphasizes the impact of specific decisions and movements. She highlights how dissidents used the Helsinki Accords to delegitimize regimes, how Gorbachev's refusal to use force broke with Soviet precedent, and how leaders like Bush and Kohl carefully managed German unification to prevent a backlash.

Historical outcomes are not purely deterministic; the actions and diplomatic skill of individual leaders can significantly shape the trajectory of major geopolitical shifts, creating windows of opportunity that might otherwise be missed.

Source episodes

Timeline

1858-1860

Paine identifies this period as a key moment of Russian expansion at China's expense, with the Treaties of Aigun and Peking ceding vast territories, including China's Pacific coastline, to Russia.

1920s

Paine describes Russia solidifying its influence by removing Outer Mongolia from China's sphere and using military force in Manchuria. Internally, Stalin uses the failure of the communist movement in Shanghai to consolidate his power against Trotsky.

1945-1950

In Paine's account, the immediate post-WWII era saw the USSR strip Manchuria of its industrial base, break its promise to the Chinese Nationalists by aiding the Communists, and advise Mao to accept a divided China, which he rejected.

1964-1969

Paine marks this as the height of the Sino-Soviet split. China develops its own atomic weapon in 1964 to escape 'Soviet bondage,' leading to a 1969 border war where the USSR considered and inquired with the U.S. about a preemptive strike on China's nuclear facilities.

1989

Paine presents 1989 as the year of divergence and collapse for European communism. She highlights the semi-free elections in Poland that delegitimized the Communist Party and the mass protests in East Germany, noting Gorbachev's crucial decision not to intervene militarily.

1990-1991

Paine details the final diplomatic and political endgame of the Cold War, including the fast-tracking of German unification by Kohl and Bush, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, and the formal dissolution of the Soviet Union via the Belovezh Accords.

Suggested prompts

How does Paine's framework of historical Russian aggression towards China inform her analysis of current Sino-Russian relations? &nearr;To what extent does Paine attribute the Soviet collapse to internal systemic flaws versus external pressures from the US and China? &nearr;Based on Paine's analysis, what are the key historical precedents that might shape Russia's strategy towards a rising power on its border? &nearr;How does Paine's emphasis on specific diplomatic and political decisions (e.g., by Gorbachev, Bush, Kohl) challenge purely structural or economic explanations for the end of the Cold War? &nearr;

Key concepts

Soviet Economic Failure 2 ep Sino-Soviet Relations 2 ep Cold War Geopolitics 2 ep Russian Imperialism in Asia 1 ep Joseph Stalin's Foreign Policy 1 ep End of the Cold War 1 ep German Unification 1 ep US Foreign Policy 2 ep Mikhail Gorbachev 1 ep

Notable quotes

“If you add up all the territory that the Russians took from the Chinese sphere of influence, it's greater than all U.S. territory east of the Mississippi.”

Sarah Paine · Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise

“After the Cold War ended, when you're getting more accurate statistics, it turns out it was at least 40 or 50%. And some people say it was up to a truly economy busting 70% if you take into account all the infrastructure investments that were associated with military things.”

Sarah Paine · Sarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War

“Stalin thinks he's got a low-risk, high-reward strategy where he's going to weaken the United States and delay the rise of China. So what's not to love about fighting to the last Chinese in Korea?”

Sarah Paine · Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise

“It was Richard Nixon who played the China card, so the United States and China could gang up on the Soviet Union and overextend it financially to wreck it militarily.”

Sarah Paine · Sarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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